***Super Delegate Update *** Obama +1 new magic number 44

As per demconwatch the most reliable source for Delegate information.

Continuing to put pressure on McCain during his mini Western campaign Senator Obama rolls out another Oregon Super Delegate




More updates, if any, will be added below

Aww yeah.

44.

Damn right he is.

so is 44 according to the "old count" or with MI/FL half votes?

First we're looking at a max of 50% vote value in FL & MI.

In MI, the uncommitteds appear to be up for grabs by those not on the ballot (two of which are pledged to Obama). So out of the uncommitteds, it's easy to assume that the delegates selected there will favor Obama. Let's say 95% of the uncommitted favor him.

When it all washes out, I think his biggest deficit will show up in the Supers from FL being primarily in Clinton's camp. And it's yet to be determined how the Supers votes will weight out.

Then they'd count double what they are supposed to versus the people. These SD's, at some of them, are responsible for the quagmire those states are in. I'd at least disqualify those from being a SD that voted for, or had a hand in changing the vote date.

So after this weekend, do you know the numbers he might need to fulfill new number of delegates needed, and how close, after the primaries might he be?

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html

The most unlikely scenario just gives Hillary everything she wants and Obama nothing even in MI - that would push the magic number up to 128 - Hillary's would be 236

All of the other compromises would put the magic number between 79 to 95


The one that seems to be the most likely - 1/2 votes and negotiated numbers of delegates would make it 86.5.

Senator Obama is expected to get 40 pledged delegates in the three primaries.

46.5 supers given the new math?

that have switched but are not being counted by Obama.

Obama campaign has leaked that they have 36 SDs that are ready to announce.

Why aren't they being counted, not publicly announced?

by Tuesday he'll will only need the SD and MT results to put him over 2026. He will want to end big and be able to say "SD and MT you did it, you put us over the top."

If the DNC changes the pre-agreed upon rules we will see a flood of SDs on Wednesday quickly push him over the top.

:hug:

The super delegates are not going to move to somebody that cannot raise funding for their primary campaign.

If everything else was reversed and Senator Clinton had the lead in delegates but was behind in money then the super delegates would have a problem.

They are not going to back the candidate who a) is behind in delegates and b) has to self fund their campaign.

That set of circumstances will simply never happen.

What is happening now is all about the Vice Presidency.

DNC will decide on a MI & FL solution either Saturday or Sunday so that the Obama campaign can quickly get out the extra SDs (if needed) on Sunday, Monday & early Tuesday morning in order to remain a dozen delegates short before election returns start to roll in on Tuesday.

Then, when the Tuesday night results are in, they can count those 16 - 18 delegates they are likely to net and say the voters from SD & MT "put us over the top".

Voters instead of supers giving Obama the magic number is the certainly the best way to declare victory, but I'll take a flood of SuperDels if it becomes necessary.

The SDs picked some time ago, it's all just marketing now.

A spate of superdelegates before the end of the actual contests could damage Obama's legitimacy as a nominee: the Clinton camp, supporters (and/or the media) could question the nomination by saying the superdelegates chose it. The slow, building lead he has taken, on the other hand, lends an air of inevitability that can be used, after all the contests are completed, to claim an insurmountable lead. Then, and only then, can the rest of the SDs proclaim.

Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana. Hmmmmmmm 50% .... but all that can change this Saturday ..... interesting the way it's coming down. Peace.

three have declared for Obama. I take full credit.

Representatives
Bud Cramer (AL)
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ)
Nancy Pelosi (CA)
Jerry McNerney (CA)
Mike Honda (CA)
Sam Farr (CA)
Bob Filner (CA)
Susan Davis (CA)
Mark Udall (CO)
John Salazar (CO)
Allen Boyd (FL)
Tim Mahoney (FL)
Ron Klein (FL)
Jim Marshall (GA)
Rahm Emanuel (IL)
Nancy Boyda (KS)
Dennis Moore (KS)
William Jefferson (LA)
Charlie Melancon (LA)
Don Cazayoux (LA)
Rep. Michael Michaud (ME)
John Sarbanes (MD)
Steny Hoyer (MD)
Chris Van Hollen (MD)
John Olver (MA)
Niki Tsongas (MA)
John Tierney (MA)
Edward Markey (MA)
Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (MI)
Rep. Bart Stupak (MI)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Gene Taylor (MS)
Rep. Travis Childers (MS)
Rep. Rush Holt (NJ)
Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC)
Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC)
Rep. Tom Udall (NM)
Charlie Wilson (OH)
Marcia Kaptur (OH)
Rep. Zack Space (OH)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)
Rep. Dan Boren (OK)
Bob Brady (PA)
Jason Altmire (PA)
Tim Holden (PA)
Rep. Mike Doyle (PA)
John Spratt (SC)
Rep. Jim Clyburn (SC)
Lincoln Davis (TN)
Bart Gordon (TN)
Nick Lampson (TX)
Jim Matheson (UT)
Alan Mollohan (WV)

Distinguished Party
Leaders (DPLs)

Jimmy Carter (GA)
Al Gore (TN)
Fmr. Senator and Majority Leader
George Mitchell (NY)
Fmr. DNC Chair Bob Strauss (TX)



Senators
Ken Salazar (CO)
Joe Biden (DE)
Tom Carper (DE)
Tom Harkin (IA)
Mary Landrieu (LA)
Ben Cardin (MD)
Carl Levin (MI)
Max Baucus (MT)
Jon Tester (MT)
Harry Reid (NV)
Frank Lautenberg (NJ)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Ron Wyden (OR)
Jack Reed (RI)
Jim Webb (VA)
Herb Kohl (WI)


Governors
Bill Ritter (CO)
Steve Beshear (KY)
Brian Schweitzer (MT)
John Lynch (NH)
Phil Bredeson (TN)
Joe Manchin (WV)

Add-Ons
Terry Goddard (AZ)#
Alex Sink (FL)#
Steve Geller (FL)#
Jay Nixon (MO)#
Rusty McAllister (NV)#
Jerry Lee (TN)#
32 Unnamed Add-Ons,
including 2 from Michigan
DNC Members
Joe Turnham (AL)
Nancy Worley (AL)
Don Bivens (AZ)
Lottie Shackleford (AR)
Art Torres (CA)
Hon. Carole Migden (CA)
Bob Mulholland (CA)
Christine Pelosi (CA)
Robert Rankin (CA)
Steve Ybarra (CA)
John Perez (CA)
Nancy DiNardo (CT)
Donna Brazile (DC)
Christine Warnke (DC)
John Daniello (DE)
Harriet Smith-Windsor (DE)
Karen Thurman (FL)
Rudolph Parker (FL)
Terrie Brady (FL)
Mitchell Ceasar (FL)
Diane Glasser (FL)
Janee Murphy (FL)
Jon Ausman (FL)
Andrew Tobias (FL)
Richard Ray (GA)
Edward Smith (IL)
Vacant (IL)
Helen Knetzer (KS)
Jennifer Moore (KY)
Nathan Smith (KY)
Chris Whittington (LA)
Claude "Buddy" Leach (LA)
Elsie Burkhalter (LA)
Sam Spencer (ME)
Jennifer DeChant (ME)
Hon. Heather Mizeur (MD)
Susan Turnbull (MD)
John Sweeney (MD)
Belkis Leong-Hong (MD)
Debra Kozikowski (MA)
James Roosevelt Jr (MA)
Arthenia Abbott (MI)
Elizabeth Bunn (MI)
Debbie Dingell (MI)
Joyce Lalonde (MI)
Jeffrey Radjewski (MI)
Michael Tardiff (MI)
Richard Wiener (MI)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Lu Battaglieri (MI)
Hon. Kwame Kilpatrick (MI)
Mayor Brenda Lawrence (MI)
Richard Shoemaker (MI)

DNC Members (cont'd)
Carnelia Pettis Fondren (MS)
John Temporiti (MO)
Yolanda Wheat (MO)
Leila Medley (MO)
Hon. Robin Carnahan (MO)
Hon. Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)
Dennis McDonald (MT)
Margarett Campbell (MT)
Sam Lieberman (NV)
Hon. Yvonne Gates (NV)
Hon. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Philip D. Murphy (NJ)
Raymond Buckley (NH)
Irene Stein (NY)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
David Parker (NC)
Muriel Offerman (NC)
Carol Peterson (NC)
David Strauss (ND)
Hon. Chris Redfern (OH)
Ronald Malone (OH)
Patricia Moss (OH)
Hon. Joyce Beatty (OH)
Ivan Holmes (OK)
Jim Frasier (OK)
Jay Parmley (OK)
Frank Dixon (OR)
Hon. Bill Bradbury (OR)
Eliseo Roques-Arroyo (PR)
Hon. Gilda Cobb-Hunter (SC)
Cheryl Chapman (SD)
Gray Sasser (TN)
Dr. Inez Crutchfield (TN)
Boyd Richie (TX)
David Hardt (TX
Denise Johnson (TX)
Betty Richie (TX)
Linda Chavez -Thompson (TX)
Helen Langan (UT)
Jim Leaman (VA)
C Richard Cranwell (VA)
Hon. Alexis Herman (VA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)
Howard Dean (VT)
Eileen Macoll (WA)
Ed Cote (WA)
Sharon Mast (WA)
David McDonald (WA)
Nick Casey Jr. (WV)
Alice Germond (WV)
Paula Zellner (WI)
Cynthia Nunley (WY)
Marylyn Stapleton (VI)

;-)

:hi:

Dates shown are when we added the endorsement which doesn't necessarily mean the endorsement was made on that day.

5-29-08 - Added DNC Gail Rasmussen (OR) for Obama
- Added DNC Eileen MacColl (WA) for Clinton

5-28-08 - Added DNC Pat Waak (CO) for Obama
- Added DNC Meredith Woods-Smith (OR) for Obama
- Added DNC Wayne Kinney (OR) for Obama

5-27-08 - Added DNC Nancy Drummond (WY) for Obama
- Added DNC Ben Pangelinan (GU) for Obama

5-25-08 - Added DNC Brian Schatz (HI) and DNC Kari Luna (HI) and James Burns (HI)# for Obama

The state party leadership made the decision not to endorse until all the pledged delegates for Denver had been chosen. MacColl's endorsement wasn't exactly surprising.

This is worse than Christmas Eve when I was a kid.

LoL

It's sad that this is still going on, but I guess it is what it is.