8/13 KERRY: 96.8% WIN PROB., 52.30% VOTE, 332 EV

State Poll Updates: 
FL - Kerry 47-41
OH - Kerry 48-45
NJ - Kerry 49-40

National Poll Updates:
CNN - Bush 50-47 (notice they are in my outliar group)


Base case assumption: 60% of undecided/other votes to Kerry. 
		
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
PROLOGUE: THE LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS								
(in millions of votes)								
Dem	138.78	52.6%						
Rep	125.03	47.4%						
								
								
CURRENT POLL AVERAGES AND PROJECTIONS (%)								
Average of  15 national polls.								
State polls weighted by hist. vote sum to national pct.							
							
							
______	Curr. 	Curr. 	Curr. 	Proj. 	Proj. 	Proj.	Elec.
______	Nat.	State	Comb.	Nat.	State	Comb.	Votes
Kerry	48.6	46.2	47.4	52.6	52.0	52.3	332
Bush	44.7	44.2	44.4	47.4	48.0	47.7	206
Diff	3.9	2.0	3.0	5.3	3.9	4.6	126
Other	6.7	9.6	8.1				
							
							
KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES (%)							
Curr Prob: assume proportional allocation of und/other.       
             							
Proj. State: EV wins in 1000 simulation trials.       							
							
______	Curr. 	Curr	Curr. 	Proj. 	Proj.	Proj.	
______	Nat.	State	Comb.	Nat.	State	Comb.	
Prob	89.2	98.8	94.0	93.9	99.8	96.8	
							
							
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS							
Impact of various und/other allocation assumptions							
							
Kerry							
Alloc.	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%		
Vote%	52.0	52.3	52.6	53.0	53.3		
Prob%	87.5	91.1	93.9	95.9	97.4		
							
							
ELECTORAL VOTE / WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS							
One thousand election trials in each simulation.							
			
Simulation I: Conservative Case 			
Assume:	50%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
Kerry	51.0%	of the vote.	
Wins 	98.8%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg  	317	electoral votes.	
Max  	380	electoral votes.	
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
Kerry	52.0%	of the vote.	
Wins 	99.8%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg  	332	electoral votes.	
Max  	383	electoral votes.	
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.											
Kerry	52.9%	of the vote.											
Wins 	100.0%	of 1000 election trials. 											
Avg  	347	electoral votes.											
Max  	390	electoral votes.											
													

BUSH JOB APPROVAL IS APPROACHING AN ALL-TIME LOW													
Data source: PollingReport.com    													
													
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby	Qpac
Jan	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49	53
Feb	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na	48
Mar	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na	49
Apr	48.55	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47	46
May	45.18	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42	45
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46	na
July	47.82	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49	46
Aug	46.25	45	44	51	46	na	44	47	na	na	49	44	na
													
													
													
													
11 NATIONAL POLLS:  MONTHLY TREND / PROJECTION													
Data source: PollingReport.com    													
													
Polls included in the average:													
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME,DEMCORP,
QPAC													
													
NBC, CNN, AP and FOX are EXCLUDED from this
group.													
They are INCLUDED in the 15-Poll group.													
													
Kerry is at an all-time HIGH 49.7%						
Bush is at an all-time LOW 44.0%						
						
Kerry's projection is equal to his average poll						
plus 60% of undecided/other voters.						
						
Avg Polling Trend			Projection			
2004	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.8	48.7	-3.8	45.5	54.5	-9.0
Feb	48.7	45.3	3.3	52.3	47.7	4.5
Mar	48.1	44.6	3.6	52.5	47.5	5.0
Apr	47.1	45.1	2.0	51.8	48.2	3.6
May	47.6	44.4	3.2	52.4	47.6	4.8
June	47.4	45.1	2.3	51.9	48.1	3.8
July	48.1	45.0	3.1	52.2	47.8	4.5
Aug	49.7	44.0	5.7	53.5	46.5	6.9
													
													
													
15 NATIONALPOLLS: CURRENT AVERAGE/ FORECAST SCENARIOS
													
													
48.60%	Average (mean) of 15 national polls 												
4.04%	Plus: 60% of undecided/other voters												
52.64%	Equals: Projected Kerry vote												
													
93.90%	is Kerry's probability of a popular vote
majority												
													
______	Poll	Curr. Curr. Kerry/ Undecided/other alloc. 		
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	Bush	50.0	55.0	60.0	65.0	70.0				
TIME	807	51	43	54.3	54.0	54.3	54.6	54.9	55.2				
FOX	804	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.1	52.6	53.2	53.7				
CNN/GAL	810	47	50	48.5	48.5	48.7	48.8	49.0	49.1
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.3	51.6	51.9	52.2
PEW	810	47	45	51.1	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.2	52.6
									
IBD	806	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2	54.6
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2	54.6
DEMC	805	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.7	53.8	54.0	54.1
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.7	53.8	54.0	54.1
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.2	54.4	54.6	54.8
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.0	53.4	53.9	54.3
AP	806	48	45	51.6	51.5	51.9	52.2	52.6	52.9
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.4	49.8	50.2	50.6
	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.3	52.6	52.9	53.2
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.1	52.6	53.2	53.7
									
Mean	______	48.6	44.7	52.1	52.0	52.3	52.64	53.0	53.3	
ProbWin	______	______	______	89.2	87.5	91.1	93.90	95.9	97.4	
MoE	3.35									
Std	1.71									
										
95% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	51.9	48.0	55.5	55.3	55.7	56.0	56.3	56.7	
Min	______	45.3	41.3	48.8	48.6	49.0	49.3	49.6	50.0	
x	______	48.0	48.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	
Prob>x	______	63.4	2.5	89.2	87.5	91.1	93.90	95.9	97.4	
										
99% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	53.0	49.1	56.5						
Min	______	44.2	40.3	47.7						
x	______	49.1	49.1	50.0						
Prob>x	______	39.1	0.5	89.2						
									
									
									
95% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 1.96 * Std									
Min = Mean - 1.96 * Std									
									
99% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 2.58 * Std									
Min = Mean - 2.58 * Std									
									
									
National Poll Average Mean									
									
MoE	3.10%								
Std	1.58%								
									
Group	15-polls	11-polls							
Kerry	48.60%	49.67%							
Bush	44.67%	44.00%							
2-party vote: 									
Kerry	52.11%	53.02%							
									
EFFECT OF POLLING SAMPLE SIZE,  MOE AND STD									
ON THE ACCURACY OF THE SAMPLE MEAN									
									
National polls sample about 1000 out of 150 million potential
voters.									
The MoE for a 1000 sample is approx. 3.1%.									
For 15 polls (equivalent to 15000 samples) the MOE is
0.80%.									
The MoE decreases as the poll sample size (N)
increases.									
MoE = 1.96 / (2*sqrt(n)) = 1.96* Std									
where the Standard Deviation Std = 1 / (2*sqrt(n))									
									
The Win Probability Matrix displays probabilties for									
various poll samples.									
									
The 11 and 15-poll group averages are used once again									
to determine the probability of a Kerry majority
vote,									
but now we assume 11,000 and 15,000 samples.									
									
The win probabilities are much higher (a fraction below
100%)									
than probabilitiies computed from a typical 1000
sample.									
It makes sense intuitively that if more samples are
taken									
from a population, the more accurate the sample mean.									
									
									
KERRY WIN PROBABILITY MATRIX									
(based on sample size and percent mean)									
									
Sample	Sample	Std	Kerry Percent of 2-party Vote						
Size	MoE	Dev	50.5%	51.0%	52.0%	52.11%	53.02%	54.0%	55.0%
									
600	4.00%	2.04%	59.7	68.8	83.6	84.9	93.1	97.5	99.3
1000	3.10%	1.58%	62.4	73.6	89.7	90.88	97.21	99.4	99.9
1500	2.53%	1.29%	65.1	78.1	93.9	94.9	99.0	99.9	100.0
2000	2.19%	1.12%	67.3	81.4	96.3	97.0	99.7	100.0	100.0
3000	1.79%	0.91%	70.8	86.3	98.6	99.0	100.0		
4000	1.55%	0.79%	73.6	89.7	99.4	99.6			
5000	1.39%	0.71%	76.0	92.1	99.8	99.9			
6000	1.27%	0.65%	78.1	93.9	99.9	99.9			
7000	1.17%	0.60%	79.9	95.3	100.0				
8000	1.10%	0.56%	81.4	96.3					
9000	1.03%	0.53%	82.9	97.1					
10000	0.98%	0.50%	84.1	97.7					
11000	0.93%	0.48%	85.3	98.2					
12000	0.89%	0.46%	86.3	98.6					
13000	0.86%	0.44%	87.3	98.9					
14000	0.83%	0.42%	88.2	99.1					
15000	0.80%	0.41%	89.0	99.3					
									
									
									
									
									
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY									

Kerry National and State Vote Projections									
State vote%: Latest state poll plus undecided/other
voters.									
National vote%: Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.									
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.									


Most Likely Case:	
60% of undecided/other voters to Kerry.													
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV									
Kerry	99.80%	51.97%	332							
Bush	0.20%	48.03%	206										

Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Hist. Dem share vs Repub in last three presidential
elections.													
													
______	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV (election trials 1-10 of 1000)		
______	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.6%	51.97%	99.8%	317	328	319	332	304	355	345	343	327	332
													
AL	44.8	40.0	0.0										
AK	37.6	39.6	0.0										
AZ	48.8	49.2	34.8		10	10					10		
AR	55.2	49.6	42.2	6					6	6	6		6
CA	57.4	56.4	99.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	48.4	21.7						9	9			
CT	57.7	60.8	100.0	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	56.8	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	89.0	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	54.2	98.0	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
													
GA	47.6	45.2	0.9										
HI	59.0	54.6	98.8	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	37.0	0.0										
IL	57.9	58.2	100.0	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	43.2	0.0										
													
IA	51.8	51.6	78.3	7	7		7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	40.8	0.0										
KY	46.7	45.6	1.6						8				
LA	49.2	43.2	0.0										
ME	57.1	52.8	91.5	4	4	4	4	4	4		4	4	4
													
MD	57.8	57.8	100.0	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	64.4	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.4	98.4	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	51.8	81.1	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	
MS	44.3	35.4	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	50.8	65.2		11				11			11	11
MT	44.9	41.4	0.0										
NE	37.5	36.0	0.0										
NV	49.9	50.4	57.8	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	
NH	51.7	54.4	98.4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	55.6	99.7	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	54.2	98.0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	63.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.0	7.1										15
ND	40.8	36.6	0.0										
													
OH	50.8	52.2	85.9	20		20	20		20	20	20	20	
OK	42.8	40.8	0.0										
OR	53.6	52.4	88.0	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		7	7
PA	54.2	54.6	98.8	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.6	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.0	7.1										
SD	44.5	43.4	0.1										
TN	50.5	49.6	42.2		11		11						11
TX	44.3	41.8	0.0										
UT	33.6	28.6	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	58.8	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	49.2	34.8					13		13	13		13
WA	55.9	54.6	98.8	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	52.8	91.5	5			5	5	5	5	5		5
WI	52.7	51.2	72.2		10	10	10		10	10	10	10	
WY	38.3	30.4	0.0										
													
Avg	52.6%	51.97%	99.8%	317	328	319	332	304	355	345	343	327	332