Kerry's kickin' arse in most polls, so why all the doom and gloom?!

http://pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Among registered voters

BUSH * = Bush win.
KERRY

* Gallup 48 47
Time 43 51
IBD/CSM/TIPP 43 49
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 43 46
ABC/Washington Post 45 52
American Research Group 46 49
CBS 43 49
CBS 44 51
? CNN/USA Today/Gallup 48 48

The polling period is from 8/1 - 8/11

:shrug:

Touchscreen REALLLY worry me.

is in the bag, but after checking out the polls, I feel a bit relieved.

:hi:

Someone do me a favor and get the averages for Kerry and Bush in those. That said thanks, these polls are pretty good. In the poll we're doing worst, hes only down by one, and in best hes up by 8 which is higher than his margin against Weld in 1996.

n'ice. I must say given his reputation as a slow starter and great closer Kerry is off to his best start in a while, hoping he can close like he did on Weld.

You may be right but I see it more as a cautiously optimistic group that knows what we're up against with the corporate media and the GOP smear machine. I think most of the criticism's that you see are driven by the knowledge that being ahead now does not mean an assured win in November.

:hi:

about lousy strategy etc... I was surprised to see how well were actually doing.

I don't count my chicks until they're hatched "ever". Especially with diebold being an issue.

And, I became frustrated with the swiftboat liars and became critical myself. I want Kerry to fight back harder sometimes, but as they say, "if it aint broke, don't fix it" and that's what I'm trying to keep in mind at least today ;) :hi:

i think it is the need to make sure the lead is too huge for *co. to even HOPE to get away with anything...

not that we can deal in the realm of logic there...

but


peace!

:hi:

:hi:


peace!

of curtailing discussions(criticisms) which could very well be convincing enough to the campaign team to adjust strategy. I've seen changes in Kerry's approach from where he started at the beginning of the primary season and surely some of that is because the campaign listened to and adjusted to "criticism's" heard on the campaign trail.

I will say this though, it's hard to argue with success. And going to where Kerry is today from where he began needs to be considered in any discussions. :)

I see as in need of improvement. This is OUR democracy, this is OUR fight and OUR voices should be heard.

Not trying to stiffle, just needing some perspective is all. :hi:

please, everyone, write to Kerry and team any time you feel this way. people here have crucially important concerns, criticisms and ideas to contribute, and this IS OUR democracy!

he is our candidate who is asking to serve us; our employee, in fact. we do have a right to be heard and our thoughts and ideas considered, and acted upon when they will make a difference - especially in our becoming truly unified.

http://www.johnkerry.com/contact/contact.php?sendto=1

i have seen them be changed by write-in actions.


peace!

i'd say that it's because all that gain has come of intense labor on the part of dems everywhere who do this work knowing every minute that the more solid kerry's gain, the more dangerous *co. is.

AND that the lead must be so massive that even diebold cannot fool anyone

AND that really, when you come down to it, unless some MORE on the neocon side get the reality of things and decide to really care about this country and this planet...


well, you get it, i know. everyone here does, really. it's just, well, agonizing!, not to get to celebrate these actually THRILLING stats!!

thank you for asking, mzmolly. i personally feel that you've just opened THE therapeutic thread.


sigh

and yes, celebrate!! we really have won.

even pugs know it. but then, they have that reaction to losing...
you know.


peace!

What bothers me about most polls is the lack of information on how sampling was done. For the most part, these are phone polls which excludes "unlikely voters" however they decide that and are able to determine the sample makeup by slight of hand. For instance, I heard one grinning asshole on CNN talk about a Gallup poll where Kerry's nomination speech had the effect of turning pug voters into "likely voters", thus increasing dim bulb's poll numbers. What a load! State by state and electoral totals are the most important while national polls are for shit.

What's interesting is the national polls are trumpeted in the media when * is ahead. :(

or readers' services, saying that about how they always shout * (alleged) leads, but where are they now.

using Calimary's amazing media, etc., resource list!:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=106&topic_id=8816

it is serious, biased reporting error in need of correction.

i suggest putting subject line: please correct

or something like that.



peace!

:hi:

rushing off, but back later for more lifts from it.

wow. i really needed this! and i see here that so many of us did. i hope you got some of that lift too!

it helps so much.
phhheeeeeew. breathe......

:hi:
keep on!


peace!

comes of knowing that polls statistically favor the privileged (made all the more privileged by *co.). so, if they look THAT solid, as they are these days, then they are actually even more so than it seems -

as long as we do everything possible to make it possible for everyone who chooses to vote, to vote.

(*edit: NO) black boxes; polling places abiding the law; transportation and polls operating efficiently, such that workers get to vote....and so on

which always means that we've just begun the work.


peace!

I always like to hear positive things from you! :)

and of course US!

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851

:toast:

Seems like there's finally proof that Eastern Europeans are the smartest :), 63-29 Kerry for them, Southern Europeans is 52-57 in favor of Bush I believe thats because Italian Americans are republicans mostly, not all of course, Mario Cuomo isnt one but by and large Italian Americans are a republican ethnic bloc mostly because when they first got here the Irish Democrats were the party bosses so they became GOP, Northenr Europeans 47-44 mostly because the German Americans are an interesting bloc, they are split, the Dutch is a pretty conservative ethnic group in America too, the Irish well they've been pretty solidly democratic ever since the famine, what I am also impressed with is Kerry winning in cities, suburbs, and coming very close in rural america, plus hes only 3 behind Bush with men, and has a comfortable lead among women, when democrats win the women's vote by large margins, and just miss the male vote, they win. Cases in point are Bill Nelson in Florida, Mark Dayton in Minnesota, all these guys lost the male vote but their bigger margins among women pushed them to victory. Thanks again, I know about these trends through reading books like the emerging democratic majority and doing ethnic studies.

And he's ahead in big cities and suburbs already.

Losers can always whine and complain. As an example 2 weeks ago I emailed the Green Party. My question was Has your party ever elected anyone,anywhere for anything? I am still waiting for a reply.

to the best of my knowledge.

their white house derby. no matter what the polls show, * is always out front on that one

i would like to get joe trippis take on why the media isnt reporting this. or mike barnicle (boston herald) or lawrence o donnell (msnbc). these guys have (recently anyway) seriously tried to get through the muck and point out the truth (the convention speech and the smear boat stuff are good examples)

course, the obvious problem there is that they arent on tv that much..... but i still would like to hear from them on this. or someone else who is any part of the mainstream media

any campaign related stories. that is the only chance to find it...

the thing is, i know i was tracking an msnbc poll last week that had Kerry leading. wish i'd kept the link!

it's not important really, just a boost when i saw it last week.

the more reliable polls seem to be well covered in this thread.

and seeing those IS uplifing!


peace!

Unfortunately our party has many Chicken little types that will find dispare in anything. Seems it's the only way the can function!

I know for me it's anxiety over a Bush bump from his convention. If we're still ahead after that, I'll be happier.

you not worry so much and step up in the face of the opposition, seems a whole hell of alot better then your whining! Actions speak volumes!

It's much easier to wring your hands, moan and whine...

I appreciate your expertise on whining but give it a break already.

Until it stops, it's a fair subject for comment...

Bugs me too when we lead in 9 out of 10 polls.

However, it is doomy and gloomy that i still have to share my country with 40% or so who think Bush is doing a great job.

Also, there is still a lot of bad mojo comin down. Yah, we are gonna win, but that doesn't change the basic facts. We are still making war on the wrong frigging country (Not that there is a right country mind you) Osama/Al Queda still want to kill a bunch of us. We are still running out of oil, still have huge deficits, the economy still sucks.

We've got alot of work to do, winning this election is only the beginning. And if we don't win :scared: :(

I wouldn't be worried in a normal election, but Bush/Rove are so fucking dirty. I won't stop worrying until Kerry takes the oath of office.

Someone was able to show that whenever Bush's approval numbers go down 3 or 4 points, they raise the terror warnings. It doesn't make quite as much news when they show that the warnings were raised without justification or based on 3 year old intelligence. The latest I've heard is that we're going to start a war with Iraq in October.

To paraphrase the great Democrat (and vanquisher of David Duke):

It's going to take finding Kerry in bed with a dead girl or live boy to cost him this election!

LOL. Who said that?

:shrug:

Unless they are miserable.

We're in the right direction I think honestly.

repeat itself, and that worries them.

But, I don't think it's panic time ... yet.

:hi:

is that Bush* is a trapped desperate animal right now, and he will resort to any tactics to save his pResidency. The thing about desperate tactics is they sometimes work. Kerry has been trying to stay above the fray, but I'm worried his lack of aggressiveness could lead to Bush* defining him as a wimpy liberal douchebag. Which is stupid as Kerry is the athletic war hero, while the most physically impressive thing fratboy ever did was somehow live though eating that pretzel, but the pug Party wins with disturbing regularity playing on the stupidity of the Average American voter.

:hi:

Subract 5% from Bush and add 5% to Kerry.

That makes Gallup 52-43 for Kerry and CNN/Gallup 53-43 Kerry.

That's in line with the others. Following this rule has brought Gallup in line with other polls all year.

It's really hard to believe there's a pony somewhere.

I for one won't believe in a Bush* loss until the Electoral College votes for Kerry.

Kerry seems to equate defending himself against the Bush camp with being "negative" or "stooping to their level." Meanwhile, the mainstream media portrays him as a laughingstock. For instance, did THEY point out that Bush had talked of "sensitivity" and "warfare" himself? More to the point, did the Kerry camp? No, he's too busy running a "positive" campaign that is making him look like he doesn't know how to stand up for himself. Kerry needs to push back when Bush pushes him, and with statements that are concise and spin-retardant. If the mainstream media doesn't respect him now, why should they when he wins?

:headbang:
rocknation

himself, on Chris Matthews.

I'd love to see the media be responsible in this election, and I really do share your concerns.

I can't stand the thought of getting "Gored" in 2004. :(

Assuming a 3.5% MOE he is up in only one of those polls (the Time one). 3.5% is the lowest MOE that is commonly used. This is a couple of weeks out from the convention when even Dukakis was way up in the polls. I am not doom and gloom but you are being pollyanna.

I am simply encouraged by these numbers.

People are acting like were losing our ass, and we're not.

Regarding the Pollyanna statement, I worked for the Wellstone campaign, then the Mondale campaign, and voted for the winner in election 2000, Al Gore. I don't count ON ANYTHING until it's OVER ~ just so you know.

Here is the detailed analysis of the polls.
http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

I really resent your calling me Pollyanna, we go back to the Dean campaign together DSC. :(

the state numbers are actually encouraging and the ones which count. But his national numbers are essentially even with Bush still having his convention to go. The debates will decide this IMO but I do think Kerry should be doing a little better right now than he is.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

We could always be "doing better" and we all know the only thing that counts is what happens in November. But, with all the scuttlebutt about Kerry's failings, I decided to check the polls. I was surprised at the results. So, I intend to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic (for now). Though, it would be nice not to be called Pollyanna in the process. I was hopefull that Dean would win the primaries, and no one called me Pollyanna back then?

As you know approval numbers are also indicitive of end results:



And this from 8/2



http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/presidential_po.html

Like I said, I never count my chickens till their hatched, but I'd be more worried right now were I a Bush supporter.

Kerry appears to be doing worse than Gore in places Gore won by huge amounts but better than Gore in places Gore either won or lost narrowly. Thus his Goresque lead in the popular vote translates to a pretty good lead in the EC. If this trend holds up then I think we will win.

As to the pollyanna thing. Maybe I did go too far but you did use gloom and doom and in point of fact mathematically I am in the right here. Kerry is mathematically tied in at least all but one of those polls not leading. That is my basic point coupled with the fact that historically that isn't very good given where we are. The good news is I think this election is a bit different and thus history isn't the guidepost it usually is.

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?" Trend includes slight variations in wording.


Deserves Reelection = Column 1
Someone New = Column 2
Unsure = Column 3

8/12-14/04 43 53 4
7/26-29/04 42 51 7
7/6-7/04 43 53 4
6/2-5/04 43 53 5
5/10-13/04 42 53 6
4/15-17/04 43 51 6
4/1-4/04 44 51 5
3/17-19/04 45 51 4
1/15-18/04 41 48 10
12/15-17/03 45 47 8
12/4-6/03 44 46 10
11/3-5/03 43 49 8
10/15-18/03 42 50 8
9/22-24/03 43 49 8
9/3-5/03 40 52 8
8/16-19/03 45 48 8
7/16-17/03 46 47 6
6/6-10/03 49 38 13
1/24-26/03 49 41 10
1/4-6/03 51 36 13
10/02 49 35 16
7/02 47 32 21
6/02 51 28 20

Compare June 2002, where 51% said GW deserved re-election, to today where 53% say we need someone new. :shrug: I'd say mathmetically no one is really "correct" ~ but the trend is looking good for us right now.

We'll have a better idea after the Republican convention I presume?

~Peace

I think this could be like Florio v Whitman. Whitman ran a haphazard campaign and never really took off in the polls. But Florio's approval remained moored below 50% for months. On election day Whitman won with a decent margin. Florio got nearly everyone who approved of him to vote for him and no one else. I think Bush may well have that happen to him. That leaves the Nader factor. One hopes that he doesn't spoil us again.

I will be holding my breath until November 3rd, at which time I hope NOT to be making arrangements to move to Canada!

:hi:

and anything can happen. Things are lookin' good now, but with such a polarized electorate things can change at any moment. OBL is still a factor and if he is captured or killed, Bush will get a huge bump. I don't think it is wise to get so overconfident. Dean was on his way to win the Democratic Nomination but he peaked just a little too soon. He had all but won Iowa before his bubble burst and if we let our guard down the same could happen to Kerry.

The best advice I can give is don't count your chickens before they hatch and take nothing for granted. We still have to win the election, and I won't feel completely sure of victory until Kerry takes office.

:hi:

Figuring in the Diebold Corruption Factor, the popular vote will be screwed up with by 10 percent or more.

We need a nice big pad of votes to make sure the Supreme Court doesn't get to vote the Chimp in again.

just running through to thank you again for this thread.

it seems to me that you set a tone that helped us discuss in positive/creative tones, agree or not.

and the polls are a definite UP! thanks all, for those!

g'night and be well all!


peace!

that by jimmying the polls to look like Bushwa is still up there, it gives them freedom to play the Florida poll card again with few questions asked? I mean, after all, all they would have to say is "look at the polls and look at the vote results." Goes to the idea of plausible deniability Nixon was so big on. Covers their butts.

No more Bushwa

Yeah, and if you compile recent polls from all of the states and translate them to electoral votes Kerry is doing really well:

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

thing scares me. Hope and pray there is not another
911 type attack before election, since that will
remind people how vulnerable we are against the
islamic killers.

Another worry is Osama found in October.