Obama Doing Better Among Hispanics Than Kerry in 2004

While conventional wisdom holds that John McCain, a border state Senator, could make inroads among Hispanic voters, a new tracking poll shows that, historically, Obama is in a very strong position.

A Gallup Study released today shows that in a hypothetical general election match up Hispanics break by a greater than two-to-one margin for the Illinois Democrat: 62 percent to McCain's 29 percent.

To put that in context, in 2004, Hispanics favored Sen. John Kerry over President Bush by a margin of 59 to 40, meaning that Obama is already ahead of his Democratic predecessor. This, of course, is a welcome development for a candidate hoping to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, states with large Hispanic communities.

"The narrative that Obama is weak and McCain is strong among Latinos is simply not reinforced by the Gallup numbers," wrote Andres Ramirez, of the NDN, a progressive think tank. "Also, it is clear that McCain has been unable to differentiate and/or distinguish himself from the Latino community's negative view of the GOP. If these trends continue, this will make the five heavily Hispanic states of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida much more democratic - a shift that, alone, could give Barack Obama the presidency."