306-232. Based on the latest polls ONLY, Obama leads in these states:
HAWAII
WASINGTON
OREGON
CALIFORNIA
COLORADO
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
IOWA
MIZZOU
INDIANA
OHIO
ILLINOIS
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
MAINE
NEW HAMPSHIRE
VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
CONNECTICUT
RHODE ISLAND
DELAWARE
NEW JERSEY
MARYLAND
DC
VIRGINIA
Of these, his most tenuous leads are in Mizzou (1%, as of today) and Indiana (1% as of late April), each of which has 11 EVs.
NEW MEXICO is a push at the moment, and is not included in Obama's current EV lead. Other noteworthy states where he doesn't yet lead include: MICHIGAN & FLORIDA. My guess is that FLORIDA is irreparable at this point, but that Michigan will be his in the end.
In other news, today's Rasmussen has Obama down only 8% to McCain in West Virginia. Apparently, a lot of West Virginians have forgotten that he has a problem with white working class voters in that state.
The most recent national poll, the 6/2-6/5 Rasmussen, also shows some broader movement. Obama has a 5% lead on McCain: 48%-43%. One week ago today in that same poll, it was a 46-43% swing McCain's way.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html