THE MATH Weekly – Friday, June 6 – Obama 300, McCain 238

THE MATH Weekly – Friday, June 6 – Obama 300, McCain 238





Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 300
McCain – 238
Barr – 0
Needed to Win – 270


Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,589,981 (45.4%)
McCain – 53,751,052 (42.4%)
Barr – 225,876 (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 15,154,091 (12.0%)


Strength of Projection – 23.8%


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Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama takes a majority of the electoral votes, without even counting the states polling within the margin of error! He has 277 electoral votes from states polling as either Strong Obama (>10%) or Weak Obama (beyond the margin of error). Missouri, Indiana, New Hampshire and Virginia are all currently polling with Obama winning.












^ This is not a prediction map. It is a map showing the states that are currently either polling or trading blue for Obama.


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Strength of Electoral Votes

Obama has 179 electoral votes from states polling Obama >10%. This is a very strong base! Add to that another 98 electoral votes from states polling between Obama +4 and Obama +10, and he jumps over the majority marker without even considering states polling within the margin of error.








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Popular Vote (A majority needed to win)

Bob Barr enters our graph this week, as he begins sneaking in to polls. The first poll showing Barr on the radar is from North Carolina, where Barr is polling at 6%. That comes to about 225,000 votes in North Carolina alone.

McCain’s projected popular vote fell one full percentage point in the past week. This is a sign that he is polling slightly weaker in his own base states, besides losing in such states as Virginia and Indiana.

Obama is closing in on the 58 million votes mark. To keep him above the theft-proof level, I’d like to see his projected vote total gain at least another 7 million over the next few months. 65 million should do it, but 70 million would seal the deal.








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Probabilities

“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes provides a keen insight into how they are doing nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 70.3%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 48.5%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +21.8%

The difference in potential advantages is quite humorous at this point. McCain’s 48.5% potential advantage tells us that if he wins all his base states (strong and weak) and all the margin-of-error states, he’d still lose by 3%! Obama’s electoral vote advantage is that strong (at this point, anyway).


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 179 (33.3%)
McCain – 121 (22.5%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 160 (29.7%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 378 (70.3%)
McCain – 160 (29.7%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 261 (48.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 417 (77.5%)
McCain – 121 (22.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 179 (33.3%)
McCain – 359 (66.7%)


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Poll Averages

Poll Averages are good to use to compare our current candidate’s national standings with past Presidential campaigns. Keep in mind that a strong third-party candidate can throw a wrench in the mix (1992 and 1996).


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 44.9%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)





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Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)








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Read Last Week’s Edition
Saturday’s Daily Widget
Sunday’s Daily Widget
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget


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Happy to do it. :hi:

This is going to be one fun election season!

But we can work hard, knowing we have the edge. It makes the work seem easier! :hi:

What a week it's been! Thank you for all of your hard work. Have a wonderful weekend :hi:

Enjoy your weekend! :D

:thumbsup:

:kick:

GA, NC, SC, TN...all should be purple not RED. I think Obama has a great chance of either winning or dipping well into the popular vote in those states. Many more African Americans are fired up and ready to turnout.

The map in the OP is not a prediction map, but rather a map showing the states that are currently either polling or trading blue for Obama. Nebraska is shown as purple because the electoral votes from that state (like Maine) are split by congressional district and Obama is projected to win at least one electoral vote from Nebraska.

We're tracking the Intrade numbers for the Carolinas, and North Carolina is beginning to show signs of purple. I hope the states you mentioned begin to poll or trade blue soon!

:hi:

projections (hey, that's the way math is!). We owe you!

Pay up! (kidding)

Nah, I'm happy to do this for DUers. It's better if it's objective, so if you see anything that looks out of whack, let me know. Everyone pitches in to make it right!

:hi:

Missouri is now polling blue (Rasmussen, June 5) Obama +1
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

Indiana is polling blue (Downs Center/Survey USA, April 30) Obama +1
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/presidential%20poll%20release%20050.pdf

Michigan is trading at 70.00 on Intrade (70% believe Obama will win Michigan)
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=416599&z=1212791204375

:hi:

--Over the past several months Obama's level of support has been consistently low there. From 40-38-41-43, with a large number undecided. McCain's support has ranged from the 50s to 43, but Obama has never shown much strength.

I wouldn't read so much into that except for the fact that his unfavorables are unusually high in MO. 32% have a "very unfavorable" opinion of him. To be fair 25% have a very favorable opinon. But his high unfavorables suggests that there's a ceiling on his support there and it's below 50%.

So I don't see him having much upside in that state.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6298380&mesg_id=6299012

--Most Indiana polls have him losing Indiana. If you average the polls he is losing IN, though I think he may be competitive and he should certainly campaign there vigorously, imo. But I think you're cherrypicking a little bit here, no?

--As for Michigan, shouldn't you use the same method to decide what to color the states? For example if you're going to ignore the polls showing McCain ahead in MI and rely on intrade numbers, shouldn't you rely on the intrade numbers for Indiana and MO (I don't know what they are but I assume they have McCain ahead)?

It's still early yet, so I am using the latest poll for each state. Averaging all recent polls for one state doesn't quite work yet, because the polls in each state are few and far between.

Obama polling at 43% is not bad for Missouri, since it doesn't always require 50% to win in that state. Although Gore and Kerry lost in Missouri, they received 46% and 47% of the vote in Missouri, respectively. Bill Clinton won in Missouri with 44% in 1992, and 48% in 1996. Bob Barr could gain a foothold in Missouri that could take it from McCain and tip it to Obama, just like it happened with Clinton. It's the high percentage of undecideds that has me wondering about Missouri.

Regarding Indiana, the Downs Center poll is the latest poll. Another poll will come along soon and most likely turn Indiana red again. But it's worth paying attention to Indiana.

Regarding Michigan, the map in the OP is a map of states which are either polling or trading blue (please see the note below the map in the OP). It's not a projection nor a prediction. Michigan is colored blue on that map to show that it is one of the states that is either polling or trading blue, nothing more.

I arrive at my electoral vote projection using an entirely different methodology than counting electoral votes on a map. It's the difference in "Potential Advantages" (see the Probabilities section in the OP), weighted to a 100 scale, then multiplied by the strength of projection, and finally a multiplier is used to weight it again, but this time on a scale of 538. The multiplier methodology used and the scaled-multiplier make my projection scientifically accurate to +/-4.0%.

My methodology for strength of projection automatically diminishes the strength of old polls (over 35 days old) and polls with high undecideds (greater than 10%). Averaging polls then becomes unnecessary. For instance, even though Missouri's poll is new, it shows greater than 10% undecideds, and thus diminishes my strength of projection by 11/538 (2.04%). (11 electoral votes in Missouri, divided by 538 electoral votes total)

Feel free to ask more questions if you have some!

:hi:

watch Greene county. If McCain does not get 58% there, then he loses MO.

Can you tell us more about Greene county? Why is it so important?

Springfield. (I live in another Springfield now - IL)

That's interesting, and I think you may be right. Springfield MO seems like a fundie mecca to me, piled to the rafters with all different kinds of conservative types. Most of the smaller cities in Missouri are like that, imho.

I'll remember this and watch it closely. Thanks lancer! :hi:

Both the Detroit News and Survey USA show McCain leading by four points. Are you choosing to ignore those? Why do you look at polls in other states but switch to intrade for Michigan?

If you look at the U.S. map in the OP, there are words underneath it. These words say:

"This is not a prediction map. It is a map showing the states that are currently either polling or trading blue for Obama."

Go back and take a quick look, I'll wait. ...

...

Okay.

I don't use this map for calculations. It is an illustration showing states either polling or trading blue, nothing more. I don't count electoral votes using a map at all. I'm not choosing to ignore the polls in Michigan.

If you have a question about anything else in the OP, I'll be happy to help! :hi:

Love the graphics too. Museum quality: the purple flatline for Clinton while Obama's blue line wiggles up ;-)

Highly recommended:
It's better for a weary heart than modern art.

At least mine has wigglies :D I could be an artiste! (lol)

Thanks! :hi:

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

Besides that, there's no need to worry. Check out this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6304016

:hi:

Electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine will be assigned by congressional districts, in addition to statewide vote count, unlike the other 48 states which use statewide vote count to assign all their electoral votes.

Obama may win one or two of the five electoral votes in Nebraska, so I made Nebraska purple. Maine is polling for Obama statewide.

On my map, purple means a split in the state's electoral votes.

:hi:

:kick:

:kick:

:loveya: :hi:

Chuck Todd has been saying a lot of the same thing on MSNBC...about Obama's base states being stronger than McCain's and having more potential to pick his states off than the other way around.

No complacency!

Chuck Todd has it correct. He's suggesting we watch Missouri, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi and Virginia for signs of a blowout.

Thanks Bullet! :hi:

Of course it's the neighboring state to Illinois. Still, Indiana is as Red a state as any of the others. This is HUGE. :-)

Indiana will probably swing back and forth all summer long, though.

:hi:

This really looks good for us. :-)

Thank you for amassing that information!

:hi:

:hi:

In fact, I insist on it!

Here's how. Obama would need to win these states:

Solid Blue:
California
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont

Weak Blue:
Connecticut
Delaware
Minnesota
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Washington

Swing States:
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
South Carolina
Virginia
Wisconsin

Weak Red:
Alaska
Indiana
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
North Dakota
West Virginia

.

This would leave McScrewed with these states:
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

.

Obama would win 37 states, to McCain's 13. Add 'em up, and that's 417-121!

:D

I think Obama has good chances based on (just cuz I think so :shrug::) )
I'm personally interested in following these states a bit closer and learning why my gut feeling is or isn't correct.

Steps to counteract voter fraud and suppression will be important.

... except for Alabama, and maybe Georgia. Obama has a real chance to turn the Carolinas, Louisiana and Mississippi blue this year, as long as he doesn't spread himself too thin, money-wise.

Counteracting fraud and theft will be of the utmost importance, yes!

:hi:

A total of FIVE (5)





cupcakes are handed to Mr. phrigndumass for his lifetime achievement in
Outstanding Elections Calculations tonight.

Yummm one, yummm all!



(Ccs are awarded for outstanding services to men, women & beasts.
There is no limit to the amount of cupcakes that can be bestowed.)

They're better than fish heads, mmmmmmmm!

The only beast I've served lately is grantcart. He even said he didn't want to be my beast of burden. I'm that pathetic! :D

Thanks Kaleko! I accept this award on behalf of men, women and beasts everywhere. (royal wave)

:loveya:

I believe even the most skeptical among us would agree.

"And the fish head award goes to..." No, that wouldn't have nearly the same clout as the delicately kneaded and highly decorated Cupcakes with cherries on top.

Congratulations also for your graciously superhumble acceptance speech, Dr. phrign!

I could. :D





















Oh, did you mean you'd like me to explain "strength of projection" right here, right now? Okay, lol ...

Using strength of projection is waaaay better than averaging polls. It automatically weeds out polls that don't meet certain criteria, such as old polls (35 days max right now) or polls with high undecideds (greater than 10%), because these polls aren't as useful in projecting. Why take a useless poll and average it in with all the other polls? It skews the other polls in a negative way.

So, if a state has an old poll or a poll with high undecideds, they're not used in most calculations. Right now, the states with good polls number 128 electoral votes, or 23.79% of 538. That's a weak projection strength for all polls total, but it's early yet. However, its usage with other sound methodologies helps my projections be accurate to within +/-4%.

and now we will see how the bandwagon pull will be.


I suspect some of McCain's softness will also be exposed and it will only remain for you to take the indexes and put it up
























































yours

lol

Nah, fairly soon the repubs will be able to get all their monkeys stirred up into a funk about some manufactured outrage or bald-faced lie and swear it's the truth, and call everyone else haters for not believing them. You could even present the truth to these monkeys, and it will stare them right in the face, and they'll still deny it's the truth. Monkeys in a funk can be stubborn as hell!

That's when McCain will see a bump, but it won't last very long, hopefully.

Woot!

Thanks Zhade!

This is as dispassionate as always, right?

But it is early yet, and my strength of projection is only about 24% at this point. We have miles to go before we awake!

I'm wondering about the poll averages, Obama is currently running behind our last three candidates. Is this something to be concerned about?

However, it is interesting that this early on, Barack Obama is averaging this well. It shows he has name recognition in all 50 states. I guess that's what a long primary season buys you.

Obama's poll averages should go north from here, now that Senator Clinton has dropped out officially.

:hi:

Every day McSame says something as stupid. By November * and the spotty old dirt bag will be one and the same. My fondest wish is that he will have a meltdown during one of the debates and call Obama a halfrican or maybe even a N****R.

If the election is on the up-and-up, he will get north of 55% of the PV.

:rofl: (I'm remembering that one)

It'll get better. Expect those lines to schwing!

:hi:

Much shorter and to the point. Two grids and three charts. Take a peek at The Daily Widget :D

:hi:

I know it's early and much can yet happen, but I think I will allow myself to feel optimistic today.

Yes, it is early, but it feels good. We have great prospects this year with Obama!