Latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Obama 48%/McCain 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"Sunday, June 08, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama’s bounce growing to an eight-point lead over John McCain. Obama now attracts 48% of the vote while McCain earns 40%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 43%. On Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% (see recent daily results)."

"Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year. There are more conservatives than liberals among these potential swing voters. "

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

And when Obama's charm begins to percolate (particularly compared to McCain's grumpy old man act), I think he'll sway a lot more.

And this is before McCain spontaneously combusts a few times, looks like a clubfooted moron in debates, or spouts off some increasingly scary "I Love War" aphorism.

I'm thinking things are on the right track for November. Let's keep it that way.

Their poll results for the Democratic candidate have tended be lower than other polls.

As far as I can find this is the first poll conducted after Hillary's withdrawal from the race.

we'll know in a few days

They claim there are more Republicans than Dems, so they always weight in favor of the Repuke. They also average their "daily" polls over several days, so it automatically averages in old trends and diminishes current daily trends.

But at least they're consistent. Take their results and add 3-5% to the Dem side, and you've got a pretty accurate picture.

Electoral College we have to focus upon.

We need to win the battle state by state, NOT by popular vote.

So we can't just sit back and relax.

about 14% of the primary. About half of those under 29 do not have landlines.

I wonder what the true spread is.

on the few occasions in history where the candidate who won the electoral vote and lost the popular vote - the election popular vote was extremely close.

"Just sit back and relax," No, of course not. Be encouraged at the possibility if not a probability of a win, perhaps even a landslide win is a motivating factor. It's not easy to get people moving, if they don't think they are going to win.

~

live boy in their bed, the Democrats look to be in pretty good shape.

But let's not forget 1988, when Dukakis seemed like a shoo-in, leading as late as PRIOR to the Democratic Convention, by 8% in the average major polls, and the VILLAGE VOICE ran a memorable front-page mega-headline that screamed "Will He Blow It?" (which indeed he did). I am always skeptical that the MSM & the machine for which it propagandizes, will even ALLOW an authentic progressive (even mildly) reformer to be elected. Bill Clinton did more to further the 'Republican Revolution' as did Carter, than daddy Bush or Ford or, at least arguably, Dole and certainly W.

At any rate, if Obama wins, and especially if he wins BIG, it will be SUCH a relief!!!!!!! How many more years of this crap the country can take, I don't know, but the environment isn't waiting around for US politics to get its act together.

And if Obama was the nominee then he would have probably lost...And, imho, it has little to do with changing mores or the two candidates...It was the time!

Reagan's popularity was in the 50's during the 88 election and Bush Pere's election was seen as Reagan's third term...Bush*'s popularity is in the twenties and McSame is seen as fulfilling Bush*'s third term...Reagan was a wind at Bush Pere's back...Bush* is a wind at McSame's face...

Americans didn't really want that much change in 88...

so comparing him to the guy who looked like a dork, sounded like Spock when asked about the hypothetical rape of his wife.

Who was the man who wore wing tips on the beach and was laughed at when he played the romantic lead in a college play?

And who was the man who won the largest popular vote and Electoral College vote landslide in the history of the republic?


Of course I wasn't comparing Dukakis with Obama...I was only comparing the milieus in which they operated...

link to full article:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

" Polls in the spring of 1988 showed Michael Dukakis with a comfortable lead over George H.W. Bush and polls in June of 1992 showed Bill Clinton running third behind both Bush and H. Ross Perot. So recent polls showing a close race between McCain and Obama may not tell us much about what to expect in November.

Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House. "

"The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. There were five elections in which the Electoral Barometer was negative and the president's party lost the popular vote in all five of these elections: 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, and 1992. There were ten elections in which the Electoral Barometer was positive, and the president's party won the popular vote in nine of these elections: 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004. "

"The current national political climate is one of the worst for the party in power since the end of World War II. No candidate running in such an unfavorable political environment – Republican or Democrat - has ever been successful. "

"Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkely Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States."

link to full article:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

But his thesis that the political and economic environment have a major impact on the race makes a lot of sense...

This race is for the Democrats to lose....

political science or social science or perhaps even behavioral science

There are however; political studies, social studies and behavioral studies

Or at least so far one can only surmise broad principles and tendencies -nothing even close to precise formulas. There are simply far to many variables - nothing even remotely close to to the equivalent of measuring the negative logarithm of arterial blood.

I don't know if you studied political science but there was a "war" between the empiricists and the subjectivists that the empiricists won...

Back to the race... I think Obama will win if the Republicants can't Dukasize him, i.e., turn him into an out of touch liberal elitist...But the environment is so poor for Republicans this year that that they probably couldn't Dukasize Dukakis... If gas was $4.00 in 88 , home prices were plummeting, and we were mired in a unwinnable war the American people might have ignored Willie Horton and his Rockey The Squirrel tank ride...

it may be that quantitative science doesn't fit these disciplines well, but there is also qualitative science to consider.

Which, for the longest time, included now-hard sciences like biology.

because the repubs are about to get desparate and they have no other option but to attack his character. The Repubs have nothing to run on to make up the deficit so I hope Barack and his team is ready to play hardball. Barack got put more surrogates out in the media even if that mean hiring people like James Carville.

They begin to sidle out of the back of the room. If the 'Licans go negative in a desperate way (is there any other?), they'll lose much more than they gain. They might get a fraction of the disaffected wingnuts who'd otherwise stay home, but they'll alienate everyone else anywhere near the center -- a center they need to solidly grab if they have any chance.

Outside of black box voting, they look pretty doomed to me.

36% very favorable!

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates

he'll be up 65-35 by then.

The past three months have been the Hillary/Obama show. Once they start showing clips of his giving speeches or, heaven forbid, start looking critically at his voting record, he's toast.

I love the smell of landslide in the morning.

- Clinton's concession on Saturday will push the difference another 4 points in Obama's favor by Wednesday
- Dem convention will push the difference another 2 points in Obama's favor end of August
- Rep convention will push the difference another 2 points in Obama's favor first week of September
- Each Obama McCain debate (let's say 6 of them) will push the difference 1 point in Obama's favor (6 points total)
- Obama's fundraising advantage over McCain, enabling him to better get his message out, will push the difference 2 points in Obama's favor

So by October at the latest, Obama will be leading McCain 56% to 35%

:)

:D

An 8 point lead on the night of the convention probably means Obama will be yp 15+ after the convention. That's huge, because McCain will see a post-convention bounce too (albeit not as large) and that probably would not be big enough to make it a game.

is the key figure here. Any poll where you see 43-39 or 48-42 has a large number of undecided and isnt necessarily to be trusted. If Obama can settle into +/- 55% range in the coming weeks he will be in fantastic shape, because that should translate into wins in battleground states.

Barr should act as McCain's Nader and slice a few points off the boy as time goes by. Remember Rush unleashed the dogs of hell against McCain and he might have trouble rounding up these mouth breathers to put a muzzle on them or to keep them from voting Barr.

Sorry.

I'll behave from now on. :evilgrin:

His numbers will continue to climb as we leave the primaries behind and the Dems start to unify their base.

it gets posted with enthusiasm. Rasmussen has been quite accurate since 2002.

:toast: