Trippi: Can Bush turn this blue state (Pa.) red? (Trippi thinks No)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5746404/

I’ve spent the last three days roaming around Pennsylvania -- kicking the tires, talking to voters and trying to stay out of the way of the big rig trucks that speed along the Keystone State’s roads.

I ran the state for Vice President Walter Mondale’s winning primary campaign in 1984, worked on Democrat Bob Casey’s winning gubernatorial campaign in 1986 and have worked on congressional races in the state in every election cycle since. In 2002, just 21 short months ago, I worked on Tim Holden’s “miracle” campaign – practically living in Harrisburg during one of the hardest fought campaigns I have ever been involved in. Holden was the only redistricted Democratic incumbent to defeat a Republican incumbent anywhere in the country in 2002 – and the win came in the wee hours of the morning and by a few thousand votes.

So with some history in the state, I’ve got to tell you it feels different this year. I don’t care what the polls say, on the ground, the race doesn’t seem close at all. John Kerry is on his way to defeating George Bush handily in Pennsylvania, and right now it feels like that Kerry’s lead is growing.

What I am finding is an almost palpable sense of betrayal by many who say they supported President Bush in 2000. Every former Gore voter I talk to has already made up their mind and is supporting Kerry. I haven’t been able to find a single person who voted for Gore in 2000 who is undecided today or voting for Bush this time. No, the undecided voters I have found in the state all say they supported Bush in 2000. This is horrible news for the Bush campaign, after all Gore won this state four years ago.

Not that I'm terribly worried about Pennsylvania. But it's still good to hear. :thumbsup:

Peter

but the polls don't seem to reflect that. I wonder if the polls aren't flawed in some fundamental way. It just doesn't seem like this election should be even close. I also wonder why Kerry is killing bush in electoral votes but it's only like a 3 point margin in popular vote.

or at least they have downloaded the Diebold software off the net
and adjusted their own polling algorithms to match.

are, atleast state polls.

States like CO are becoming undecided and are recently showing it tied. Few though this state and VA would be in play but they are polling a lot closer than expected.

There are quite a few nutjobs running around my office and in my neighborhood. Can't even explain some of bush's "finer" points to them.

What concerns me are my fellow Teamsters mainly in Central PA who are gun enthusiasts and hunters and NRA members. You just can't get these guys to put their collective bargaining issues higher on their priority lists than their beloved guns, which the NRA knows how to tweak every election cycle. It is maddening!

My dad is there and is a gun enthusiast/hunter. He's an intellingent guy though and is voting for Kerry. Don't give up on them.

since 1987 spent 14 years in Allentown and now the last two in Reading. I've been a rank and file Teamster freight hauler for 15 years now. Holden is my Congressman. I'm scared shitless that JoePa's son will beat Holden. I think George Gekas' age didn't excite his base. So they didn't turn out in force. Not so this time I think. Paterno is young and inexperienced, but with the huge Republican advantage in this re-drawn district, they will definitely be looking to get a young man in there who should be there for years to come. Keeping my fingers crossed for Tim Holden!

My parents are in Altoona (I was born and raised there) and we've been Penn State football fans for an eternity - I don't feel the same about JoPa as I did when I was a kid, that's for sure. Kinda sad one of my childhood "ideals" has gone up in smoke.

is Kerry has made less of an issue out of gun control and abortion. He doesn't mention them in his speeches.

Granted the NRA will still tell people Kerry will take their guns, but I think there's less enthusiasm on the NRA's part as well. They don't seem as big a force as they were in '00.

:shrug:
rocknation

A lot. My parents live in rural PA and the news I get from them is reflected in this article. Oh - did I mention my parents voted for chimpy 4 years ago and now think he's a crazed lunatic? :bounce:

PA will be blue.

I live in SW Pa. in a repug county. The people around here are really fed up about: 1) the economy 2) the men and women who are dying in Iraq 3) the rotten, low-down, despicable tricks at every turn that this administration pulls.

We are BOMBARDED with Bush ads. I have watched the "Which Child on 9/11 Would You Choose" propaganda till I could puke. I just want to watch the Olympics in peace without having to see that bullshit.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04231/363589.stm

Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry is maintaining a slight lead over President Bush in Pennsylvania with crucial support from veterans and military families, according to a poll released today.

The Quinnipiac University survey shows Kerry leading the Republican Bush, 47 percent to 42 percent, with independent candidate Ralph Nader capturing 4 percent. Last month, the battleground state poll similarly showed Kerry with a five-point edge over Bush.

Pennsylvania veterans and military families, who disapprove of the war in Iraq by a decisive 13-point margin, indicate they are split between backing Bush and Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War hero. Though military families are generally more conservative than most voters, they give Kerry 46 percent, Bush 42 percent, and Nader 6 percent, the poll found.

"In what may prove to be damaging news for the President, the anti-war attitude among voters from military households in Pennsylvania is greater than the attitude among all voters," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Hard to place too much faith in the opinions and views of someone who has so much obvious bias isn't it?

And I don't place my faith in political strategists or pundits. My faith is in the American people. Faith that the republican's neo-con propaganda machine will begin to fail in the coming months and that some --especially undecided voters -- will see Bush for what he truly is: a selfish, cowardly, dangerously inept man who was NEVER qualified to be the President of the United States of America. He has survived thus far on fear (which was the result of 9/11 -- and it will be long debated if he could have done anything to prevent it); polarization of the electorate(which was the direct result of the 2000 election); and he has survived because the fear and polarization of the electorate has effectively weakened the national media. In this atmosphere, Watergate would have never been fully investigated by any reporter.

Long after we have left this earth, historians will delve through the yellowed, tattered papers, the antique computer files, and other documents related to this administration. They will draft a more accurate picture of George W. Bush and it will not be very flattering. It will cause those who are unfortunate enough to share his name and blood to change their name. And, perhaps, if the technology exists, to change their blood as well. Once future generations know more about what steps the President failed to take regarding terrorism before Sept. 11, 2001; once they learn just who was in that secret energy task force meeting held by V.P. Dick Cheney; and once they uncover the whole truth about every meeting, action, policy, and shadowy dance with enemies, they will define the W presidency as the most corrupt we've ever had. And it will not only be an indictment against W, but of the media as well, for they let such things go unchecked.

Dropped in again yesterday to tour a Boeing plant near Philly.

In that case, we won't worry about it. In a close or Kerry election, it will go our way. It's that simple.

Kerry will win PA by at least 5.

Every former Gore voter I talk to has already made up their mind and is supporting Kerry

:eyes: