I don't think Obama really has THAT MUCH "party unity" work to do.

Let's look at is this way. A recent CNN poll said 60% of clinton supporters would vote for Obama.

According to the most recent RCP graph for the Dem nomination, it is Obama 52.8, Clinton 40.6. That leavs 6.6 undecided. Let's be generous to people making the "OMG DISUNITY" argument and give Obama only 60% of those as well.

40.6*0.6=24.36

24.36 (60% of Clinton supporters) + 3.96 (60% of undecided) + 52.8 (100% of Obama supporters) = 81.2% of Democrats

81.2% of Democrats, as of now, would vote for Obama.

Let's flash back to 2004. Exit polls - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Kerry only got 89% of the Democratic vote. So for Obama to match Kerry, he would only have to get about 9% of the remaining 18.8% of Democrats. Less than 50%. And that's just to match Kerry's percentage. But most likely, he doesn't even need to do that to win, though he probably will. Kerry only won independents by 1%. Obama will fare far better than that, according to most polls recently.

So everyone who is running around like a chicken with their head cut off, screaming about the disunity of the party, just relax. As time passes and wounds heal, more than 60% of Clinton supporters will vote for Obama. We won't get all of them, but no one ever would get 100% of Democrats. We don't need to panic.

We're gonna win this one.

:kick:

:hi:

...once the reality sets in, say after the first debate, of just what the other guy is all about, I don't see how anyone would NOT vote for Obama.

the perception as much this time around - Yes, 2004 was post 9-11, but 2008 is post Katrina and post McClellan's book about the Lord of the Lies Administration.

the mounting deaths and destruction in the bogus war on Iraq. And.. With the gas prices changing people's lives and real concern for our Environment the Sucking Economy isn't helping the gop.

Obama himself has done nothing to divide..it's all about bringing people together with him so any "division" has been self imposed.

From a Rasmussen Daily poll today



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

:)

:)

hear one person talk about not voting for Obama. The Obama folks were giving out free buttons and signs, and lots of folks were picking them up and wearing them!

after he clinched the Republican nomination.

Part of that percentage is for Ron Paul who might vote for Bob Barr. The live and let live conservatives out.

The other part is for Huckabee's wins the Christian Right ground organizers. McCain isn't particularly popular for the religious social conservatives. He is not conservative enough in temperament for them even though he is 95% in line with Bush.


Then the economic conservatives have a problem with his lack of knowledge.


In his base, he has the defense hounds who have concerns about his rash temper.


So compared to McCain's unity problem, how does Obama's Dems---culturally right leaning, women centered, and/or the older voters.

Why is McCain more socially conservative than Obama to this Christian centered voter?

Well... listening to some commentators last week.. seems Senator Obama has 42% right now.. Kerry I think garnered 41% (I may have those two turned around) and President Clinton grabbed 45%.. again, I may be off one or two point.. but, anyway.. we are flapping around quite a bit..

I'm aghast

Wounds don't heal themselves.

People are rational and wounds do heal themselves (with time.)

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Ever.

the 60% isnt of 40.6. The CNN poll actually polled Obama and Clinton supporters and found Obama up 59-35. So the number to use is 35, and not 40.6.

not substitute for real algebra. The necessary equations are more difficult.