Rasmussen Poll June14 : Obama 47%, McCain 40%(without Leaners)---Obama 49%, McCain 43%(with Leaners)

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, June 14, 2008

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

I expected at least a 10% point advantage right after the nomination. So far, he's gotten only 6% - 7% points ahead of McCain.

I wonder why?

in 1988. Yet he lost.

The loser wanted to hold the spotlight for a few more days, so the thrilling historic celebration was quashed somewhat until that very important person finally deigned to provide her precious acknowledgment of his victory. She held the reporters in suspense and hogged the post primary news cycles for a few days. What would this important political dynastic figure decide to do? Never mind the winner-- what was she thinking and doing? Once the Clinton dynasty had deigned to concede, his victory was old news. Whoops. Sorry pal.

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was able to predict her erratic and illogical pattern of decision-making any longer.

:shrug:

He was behind by a few and now he is up by 6-7, that's almost a 10 point swing.

Pretty big bump/lead in what is at the end of the day often a 52-48 environment for one side or the other or closer.

He should get another bounce from the convention although unfortunately we scheduled it to end only a few days before the RNC begins so unsure whether that is smart in that it depresses the normal RNC bounce or dumb in that it minimizes our own.

Still, barring a major event like bittergate or Wright on our side, you'd expect post convention to see it around 10 points.

I do not think the RNC bounce will at its best drop us down to anything other than a tie, if not a small Obama lead and then you are left with the debates.

And as usual, the perceived winner of the debates, will win the election.

Note I said perceived winner, not the actual winner.

~

For further reading, see: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6344459&mesg_id=6344459

Sorry can't elaborate more, I'm on my way out the door.

Kerry never led Bush by more than 8 points and he only did that for like a couple of days, before the gap closed and it was neck and neck the entire election. Obama has now led McCain outside of the MOE for over a week now.

Gore never led Bush, even after winning the nomination. From September of 1999 to essentially election day, Gore trailed in every major poll.

Dole never led Clinton, not even after winning the Republican nomination.

Clinton didn't lead Bush until later in the summer, well after securing the nomination. In fact, this time in 1992, Clinton was in THIRD!




Obama actually has seen a bigger bump than any of the last few presidential candidates.

Can you cite an example?

All things considered, I think Obama's numbers are actually BETTER than expected once the histrionic nut jobs are factored in.

Oh, but your concern is duly noted. :eyes:

and divided the party.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6361777&mesg_id=6361777

Posted this morning.

And I don't think it's unreasonable to assume Obama is going to pick up a good bit of those undecideds.

why their hero, McSame, cannot break 50% even though he supposedly benefitted from Democratic in-fighting and perhaps women voters for Clinton vowing to vote for him. He was supposed to be ahead of Obama. Instead, the man simply cannot get above 45-48% depending on the poll. Now why is that? Everyone is fixated on Obama's "shortcomings," but totally ignore McSame's massive problems!!

Both have Obama ahead, but one (Gallup) shows Obama declining while Rasmussen has him steady.

polls are polls :)

I don't see McCain ever going ahead.