Increase in tensions and the possibilty of an attack on Iran.
While the media has been commenting on Senator's Obama decision to change his earlier position and forego Public Financing of the General Election, and while the blogosphere has been consumed with strident disagreements about the best strategy and tactics on the upcoming FISA bill and its unhappy inclusion of the telecom retroactive immunity, tensions indicating a possible attack on Iran have significantly increased.
What has been particularly startling is that the normally calm Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has used uncharacteristically strong words warning that attacks would "it will turn the Middle East to a ball of fire" and that should there be an attack that he would resign immediately. What makes this particularly noteworthy is that when Israeli forces took out a Syrian nuclear plant that was being installed from North Korea earlier in the year there was almost no reaction anywhere.
Here is a brief summary of statements and actions made in the last week:
1) On June 16th President Bush visits Prime Minister Brown (UK) in London and issues very strong language indicating that they are going to press for further sanctions against the Iranians. This follows Bush's efforts in other European countries on the same issue.
2) Sometime in the last few weeks Israel has conducted practice air strikes with up to 100 F16 and F15 warplanes involved in practice bombing exercises.
3) Russia's foreign minister makes a strong statement Friday against the use of force. Vows to press on 'non-stop'.
Actions Today
4) US Pentagon sources give multiple 'off the record' briefings confirming the details of the Israeli training exercizes.
5) Iran states that Israeli exercizes "jeopardizes global peace and security." Also accuses the United States of trying to kill or kidnap Ahmadinejad on trip to Baghdad.
6) Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency states that "In my opinion, a military strike will be the worst... it will turn the Middle East to a ball of fire," and announces he is prepared to resign if they take place.
Below please find details of the statements
1) U.S./U.K.: Brown Backs Bush On Iran
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/06/ca8906d0-cd58-4377-8b47-5d0ecf4bc701.htmlGordon Brown said London would impose further economic sanctions on Iran to help persuade it to suspend its nuclear program, and he promised to set no timelines for withdrawals of his country's forces from Iraq.
"If Iran continues to ignore United
resolutions, to ignore our offers of partnership, we have no choice but to intensify sanctions. And so today Britain will urge Europe and Europe will agree to take further sanctions against Iran," Brown said at a joint news conference with Bush.
"First of all, we will take action today that will freeze the overseas assets of the biggest bank in Iran, the Bank Melli, and second, action will start today for a new phase of sanctions on oil and gas," he added.
Washington wants to build European support for new sanctions against Tehran if it rejects incentives to give up uranium enrichment.
Bush's meetings in London come as Iran on June 14 ruled out suspending uranium enrichment, despite a renewed offer by the five UN permanent Security Council members and Germany to help it develop a civilian nuclear program in exchange for abandoning its enrichment efforts.
Iran has now got its answer from Brown, underlining support that Bush has already received earlier in his trip from Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. All have said they share Washington's goal of assuring Tehran does not obtain nuclear weapons.
The U.S. and European leaders hope this will add pressure on Iran to soften its approach toward the incentives offer or build international support for a third round of sanctions at the United Nations.
2)Large scale Israel training mission prepares for possible Iran strike
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23897098-2703,00.html
ISRAELI fighter jets have recently conducted a large-scale training operation that simulated an attack on an Iranian nuclear reactor, US media reports claim.
The apparent operation follows months of escalating rhetoric from the Israeli defence establishment and politicians, who insist a military strike against the nascent nuclear capabilities of Iran is on strategists' drawing boards.
Up to 100 advanced Israeli combat jets were reported to have taken part in the drill over Greece and other areas of the eastern Mediterranean.
The exercise was tailored to prepare for long-range strikes and focused on air-to-air refuelling and target assessment, Pentagon officials told The New York Times.
The paper reported that more than 100 Israeli jets staged the manoeuvre. It said the aircraft flew more than 1440km, roughly the distance from Israel to Iran's Natanz nuclear-enrichment facility. Asked to comment on the report, the military issued a statement saying only that the Israeli air force "regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel".
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said he preferred that Iran's nuclear ambitions be halted through diplomacy, but he does not rule out military action.
3)Russia warns against attacking Iran
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1213794289495Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday warned against the use of force on Iran, saying there was no proof it was trying to build nuclear weapons.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Lavrov said Iran should be engaged in dialogue and encouraged to cooperate with the UN nuclear monitoring agency.
He made the statement when asked to comment on Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz's statement earlier this month that Israel could attack Iran if it does not halt its nuclear program.
"I hope the actual actions would be based on international law," Lavrov said. "And international law clearly protects Iran's and anyone else's territorial integrity." The IDF refused to confirm or deny a New York Times report Friday that its warplanes staged a major rehearsal this month for a possible attack on Iran.
Lavrov said Russia had asked both the United States and Israel to provide factual information to back their claims that Iran was working to build atomic weapons. "So far we have seen none, and the same conclusion was made by the International Atomic Energy Agency," he said.
"It's absolutely not right to speak matter-of-factly that Iran continues building nuclear weapons," Lavrov added.
Lavrov insisted that Iran must be encouraged to continue its cooperation with the UN monitoring agency.
"As long as the IAEA reports to us progress in its relations with Iran, as long as Iran closes the issues which were of concern to the IAEA and this process continues, we should avoid any steps which could undermine this very important process," he said, speaking in English.
Russia has maintained close ties with Iran and is building its first nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr, which is expected to go on line later this year. It has backed limited UN sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, but has opposed the US push for harsher measures.
"The key to resolving the Iranian issue is involvement," Lavrov said. "We must involve Iran, engage Iran in resolving the Iranian nuclear program, ... but also engage Iran in constructive, respectful, serious dialogue on Iraq and Afghanistan, on the Middle East in general."
4) Pentagon briefs NYT and the AP with multiple sources on the Israeli Training
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5itvrl_aTnXtjxkyqxRAqgIcKwDmQU.S. says Israeli military has practised attack on Iran's nuclear facilities
WASHINGTON — Pentagon officials have confirmed reports that the Israeli military has conducted a major exercise aimed at showing it's ability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
Two Pentagon officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, tell The Associated Press that Israel sent dozens of aircraft on a large-scale exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean early this month.
5)Iran vows to press on with nuclear development - accuses the United States of trying to kill him
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/21/israelandthepalestinians.iran1Tehran today denounced Israel as a "threat to global peace" after Israel held a large military exercise in an apparent dress rehearsal for a potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
An Iranian government spokesman, Gholam-Hossein Elham, dismissed suggestions of an attack by Israel as "impossible", the official IRNA news agency reported.
He said "the threats and the claims of Zionist regime" proved Iran's view that Israel was "dangerous and a threat to the global peace and security". Elham's remarks came after Pentagon officials confirmed US media reports of a large military exercise by Israel earlier this month to show Iran that it had the capacity to strike at its nuclear facilities.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday accused the United States of plotting to kidnap and assassinate him during a visit earlier this year to Iraq, state media reported.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1213794285005&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Ahmadinejad told a meeting of clerics in the central Iranian city of Qom that Iran's "enemies" planned to kill him when he went to Baghdad in March, according to the president's Web site. Iranian leaders usually use the term "enemies" to refer to Western nations and the United States in particular.
Ahmadinejad said the plot was never carried out because of "intentional" last-minute changes in his schedule during the visit, the Web site said. He said the conspirators learned about the changes too late, when he had departed Iraq.
He did not elaborate or say how Teheran learned of the alleged plot. A senior Iraqi security official in Baghdad who was involved in Ahmadinejad's visit said the Iranian president had planned to go to the southern Shi'ite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf but these trips were canceled because of fears for his safety. It was not known if these were the changes Ahmadinejad was referring to. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk about the visit.
6)ElBaradei warns of "ball of fire" and threatens to resign.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25298744Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief warned in comments aired Saturday that any military strike on Iran could turn the Mideast to a "ball of fire" and lead Iran to a more-aggressive stance on its controversial nuclear program.
The comments by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, came in an interview with an Arab television station aired Saturday, a day after U.S. officials said they believed recent large Israeli military exercises may have been meant to show Israel's ability to hit Iran's nuclear sites.
"In my opinion, a military strike will be the worst... it will turn the Middle East to a ball of fire," ElBaradei said on Al-Arabiya television. It also could prompt Iran to press even harder to seek a nuclear program, and force him to resign, he said. We have a disturbing confluence of leaders in the United States and Iran that share the same penchant for playing chicken and sabre rattling.
Both Bush and Ahmadinejad appear to seek a military strike on Iran. Ironically an attack by the United States or Israel would benefit Ahmadinejad the most and may be the reason that he continues to try and provke Bush to attack. An attack would increase his lagging domestic popularity, give him stronger credentials in the radical Islamic 'street' and most importantly significantly drive up the price of petroleum, probably over $ 200 per barrel dramatically increasing Iran's oil revenues and enabling him to fund the populist programs he promised the rural areas when he was running for President. The likelihood of McCain succumbing to Iranian provocations and launching an attack is so great and the consequences so disastorous that it should help us to focus on the Democratic party's need for solidarity and redoubling all efforts to win the General Election.