Poll Confusion: McCain and Obama Are Tied, Close or Far Apart - Obama Strong in CO & Upper Midwest

Poll Confusion: McCain and Obama Are Tied, Close or Far Apart

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/06/poll-confusion-mccain-and-obam.html

June 25, 2008 2:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If you follow the daily polls on how John McCain and Barack Obama are faring, then you're probably scratching your head today.

Gallup today says that McCain and Obama are tied at 45 percent. Yesterday, it was Obama 46, McCain 43. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The pollsters analyze the meaning of this: "Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June."

Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen poll has Obama with an advantage over McCain, 49-45 percent. Since the margin of error is +/- 4 percent, this is a statistical tie. Rasmussen adds, though, that McCain has some good news out of today's findings: "Just 22 percent now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30 percent (June 6th.) Forty-one percent continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced."

Neither of these squares well with yesterday's Bloomberg/LA Times poll, which showed Obama with a 15 point lead over McCain, if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are in the mix.

Obama Strong in Colorado and Upper Midwest

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/06/obama-strong-in-colorado-and-u.html

June 26, 2008 12:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll released today found Barack Obama with significant leads over John McCain in Colorado (49-44, margin of error +/- 2.7), Michigan, (48-42, +/- 2.6), Minnesota (54-37, +/- 2.5), and Wisconsin (52-39, +/- 2.5). Obama's lead in each of these states come from strong support among his base coalition of women, African-Americans and young voters. He has a large lead among independents - Obama bests McCain in that demographic by margins ranging from 8 to 21 percent in each state.

The Minnesota and Wisconsin results suggest McCain has a ways to go to make these states competitive, and Obama's advantages in Michigan and Colorado - though not large - suggest he's starting the general election in a good postion in these crucial swing states.

According to Peter Brown, assistant director at Quinnipiac, "November can't get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama. He has a lead everywhere, and, if nothing changes between now and November, he will make history." However, Brown cautions the Obama campaign against premature celebration: "His lead nationally, and double digits in some key states, is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign."