The state and national projection models are in exact confirmation.
Obama leads both with 53.6% of the projected two-party vote.If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected
365 – 173 EV.Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.8 – 41.9%.
Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 47.8 – 42.6%.
These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama: CO, IA, NM, OH, VA, NC, FL, GA, IN
View the latest state/ national polling and corresponding popular and electoral vote projections below.But there’s a catch: It’s called
Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.They need massive new voter registration and GOTV to overcome the fraud.
In 2004, Kerry easily won the
True Vote. Bush had a
48% approval rating.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
- But approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
- The vote counts on DREs and central tabulators are unverifiable.
The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trial simulation.
Since Obama won 4999 trials, there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the election.
The model executes five undecided voter scenarios (5000 trials each).
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated; he had a 52.4% share, 323 EV and 98% win probability.
Obama’s win probability in each state is calculated by the Excel NORMDIST function.
Input to NORMDIST is Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and the 4% margin of error.
- For example, in Florida, Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
Obama is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51 – 49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The
2008 Election Calculator determined that
Obama will win a 71-59m landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the
True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:
- 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
- The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:
(2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.
2004 Election Model ReviewThe
model produced an
amazing confirmation of the state and national models.- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
- Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.
Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000 demographic) indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 – 47.6%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan 2005:
Kerry won the
unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 51.8 – 47.2%.
The Election Calculator Model used
12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a
67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share
2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%
Election Forecasting MethodologyTwo basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:
- Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
- Projections based on historical time-series regression models.
In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
Undecided voters are allocated to project the two-party vote.
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation OverviewThe objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.
For each of 5000 election trials:
In each state, the winner is determined by comparing the win probability to a random number (0-1).
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who wins at least 270 electoral votes.
The win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) PollsThe national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
Other links:
2008 Election ModelConfirmation of A Kerry LandslideElection Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQExcel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-20042004 Interactive Simulation ModelA Polling Simulation Model2000-2004 County Vote Database
Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability
THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
Last
State
National
State
National
Monte Carlo
Simulation
Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win
6/27/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%
Obama
McCain
46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0
Undecided Voter Allocation
Obama
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
Obama election trials
Win
Probability
4916
98.32
4986
99.72
4999
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0
Projected Vote Share
Obama
McCain
52.4
47.6
53.0
47.0
53.6
46.4
54.1
45.9
54.7
45.3
Electoral Vote
Average
Median
323
322
342
342
365
365
388
389
409
411
Maximum
Minimum
413
242
421
256
439
248
454
298
466
309
95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
374
272
395
289
418
312
441
336
455
363
States Won
26
28
29
33
34
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS State Model
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
46.8 %
33
41
28
40
56
46
47
90
50
45
43
61
39
60
48
47
37
41
41
55
52
53
48
51
44
43
39
36
42
51
47
47
51
43
38
46
38
48
46
53
39
34
36
38
31
63
45
55
37
52
40
McCain
41.9 %
59
45
38
47
36
43
44
9
41
45
44
31
52
31
47
42
47
53
50
33
39
30
42
42
50
50
47
52
45
39
39
39
34
45
44
43
52
45
42
38
48
51
51
43
55
29
44
40
45
41
53
Diff
4.9 %
(26)
(4)
(10)
(7)
20
3
3
81
9
0
(1)
30
(13)
29
1
5
(10)
(12)
(9)
22
13
23
6
9
(6)
(7)
(8)
(16)
(3)
12
8
8
17
(2)
(6)
3
(14)
3
4
15
(9)
(17)
(15)
(5)
(24)
34
1
15
(8)
11
(13)
BO EV
328
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
13
11
10
Obama
53.6 %
37.8
49.4
48.4
47.8
60.8
52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0
50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0
53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2
57.4
63.2
54.0
55.2
47.6
47.2
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0
55.4
55.4
60.0
50.2
48.8
52.6
44.0
52.2
53.2
58.4
46.8
43.0
43.8
49.4
39.4
67.8
51.6
58.0
47.8
56.2
44.2
Probability
100.0 %
0.0
38.2
21.2
13.6
100.0
90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1
65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1
96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
97.7
99.5
11.5
8.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0
99.7
99.7
100.0
54.0
27.4
90.3
0.1
86.4
94.5
100.0
5.5
0.0
0.1
38.2
0.0
100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
EV
374
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
4
15
5
31
15
20
7
21
4
3
13
11
10
Obama
9
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
National Model
10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample
NATIONAL MODEL
5-Poll Mov Avg
5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj
Date
6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19
6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15
Size
3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
Obama
49
47
44
49
50
51
45
48
47
49
McCain
45
43
44
37
44
36
41
45
42
45
Spread
4
4
0
12
6
15
4
3
5
4
Obama
47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
McCain
42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
Obama
53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3
54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
McCain
46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7
45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
Diff
7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6
8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6