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SUSA VA POLL: Obama 49, McSame 47.

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:20 PM
Original message
SUSA VA POLL: Obama 49, McSame 47.
Details, with various head-to-head matchups -- http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b3aa039f-ad80-42e9-b384-e37f124f51d5
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. sweet! n/t
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. He's strong everywhere right now. Great to see.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
3. He should be polling better among democrats
That should be a source of concern.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
4. Is that the poll that said McInsane would win NJ ? YOu know a few months ago....
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Yes, SUSA is quite erratic in their polling. Sometimes they're on and sometimes way off.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
5. Virginia will be to the South what California was to the West Coast.
A classic Republican state changing demographically and moving slowly but surely to the Democratic column in a big way.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
6. If there's a Bradley effect, Sydney is likely up in VA
Edited on Sun Jun-29-08 10:31 PM by Carrieyazel
Its going to take a lot of effort to win there.
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. The Bradley effect really really really really worries me
Edited on Sun Jun-29-08 10:41 PM by Fluffdaddy
The GOP is counting on it. That's why I was a HRC supporter
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Thanks for your concern.Next.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. If there's a Bradley effect, why didn't it show up in the primaries?
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Because we are democrats. The General is a whole new ball game
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PM7nj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. You are such a Debbie Downer
You're enjoying your day
Everything's going your way
Then along comes Debbie Downer.

Always there to tell you 'bout a new disease
A car accident or killer bees
You'll beg her to spare you, "Debbie, Please!"
But you can't stop Debbie Downer!
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. I'm a realist. The world is not always fair, sometimes it's a downer
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #6
16. Bradley effect?
what is that, may i ask?
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. ....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:33 PM
Response to Original message
8. Wake me in october when polls means something
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #8
18. I know, in August of 1988, Dukakis was up 18 points
in the national polls, but lost by about 10.
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. You get it. Polls this early.......... MEANS NOTHING
I'm old enuff to remember the Dukakis fiasco

People need to stop doing the victory dance already.
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
15. 18-34: Obama +4. 35-49: Obama +22.
Hmmm...look strange to anybody else?
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Um...Yes!
Thanks for pointing that out. No way that's legit.

Sometimes I wonder if SUSA pulls digits out of their ass from time to time.
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Tell me about it!
You would think that little details like this one might convince them to look into their polling methods. No way is Obama only +4 with the 18-34 vote yet somehow up +22 with the 35-49 vote.

I think it all boils down to "likely voters." It's not clear how they define that term, but I believe it is normally defined according to whether or not people voted in previous elections. I think that Obama has done a much better job of energizing young, first-time voters than McCain has, so this poll probably disproportionately excludes them from their sampling.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. In the primaries, Obama often overperformed on election day.
Because the "likely voter" screen missed some of his supporters. Given the marked "enthusiasm gap" between Barack's and McSame's supporters, we might see the same thing, only on steroids, in November. Also, I wonder if we will see the first election with a major "cell phone only" effect.
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