Surprise Rasmussen Poll: North Dakota now tied - pointing to Obama northern sweep

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election


"North Dakota is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried the state by twenty-seven points in Election 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916.

Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. "


He also reports that Illinois is Obama +13

and Wisconsin is now Obama +11

If Obama were to take N Dakota and keep Montana it would be a radical redrawing of the electoral map with the entire northern border looking blue



Map is from phrgndumass daily report

good.

Recommended.

But, to be fair... Idaho is part of the northern border and they're red

1) Montana and ND have elected Dem Senators and/or Governors
2) Ed Schultz is from Fargo
3) Economics up there ain't so hot
4) A lot of the conservatives up there are of the Ron Paul variety -- and they're not wild about McSame. I'm not saying they'll vote for us -- I'm saying they'll likely not vote.

And now, we should all stop looking at your map, and read this and wake the heck up. This thing is a long way from over, the GOP is starting to raise money, and they have ideas on how to spend it.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1821088,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

Underestimating the smear machine has been our fatal flaw in too many past elections. We need to prepare ourselves not just for the dirty tricks of the past, but for whatever new flavors of slime these gutless cowards come up with next.

But if Obama campaigns there and in Montana, I think he has a legitimate shot at winning those two states, which is fascinating.

:patriot:

its looking sweet

If it weren't for that damn panhandle in Idaho, it would be perfect.

here in Korea. He says the northern part of Idaho is pretty liberal, it's the southern part that is very conservative. Being from Oregon, I always thought people from Idaho were a little odd. Now that I've met this guy, I'm convinced.

(actually I'm kidding, he's a pretty nice guy)

newer polls may find them turning pink

the real significance of the map is that the deep red states are disappearing

but still RED. Only good news is nobody is tearing down my Obama signs or keying my car. LOL Only people asking me where I got the T-shirt. Seriously, everyone I am talking to is voting Obama, not that I am gonna turn this state blue or even pink, but they are pretty angry about bush.

Just a note ....when I ask them about FISA........
WTF is FISA?.. is the answer.
But they can tell ya the price of gas today!!!

I have been reading stuff on DU for years, never joined in on message board before....still don't know how it actually works. As in when people are actually HERE and typing.
I started reading the posts to get information and boy did I get depressed at first with all the bashing and fighting going on...I don't think people realize how bad it looks to new people.
But it doesn't take long to recognize the s/n and know where they stand.

I lurked for a long time also. Can't seem to remember what finally got me to join.

:hi:

Threw me for a second....

Sweeeeeeeeep! :kick:

States never change partisanship to that extent over a 4 year period. Not a single example that I'm aware of and I've studied the numbers closely since '96.

North Dakota has an established history of being double digits red on a presidential level. Since '92 the closest it's been on the partisan index (statewide relationship to the national percentage) is 15.34 points red leaning. In '04 it was roughly 25 points of red tilt. I think the highest switch in modern terms has been about 17 or 18 points from one cycle to the next. That would mean North Dakota will still slant at least 7 or 8 points GOP, compared to the nation as a whole. So Obama theoretically would have to carry the national popular vote by that margin to draw even in North Dakota. Outside possible, but remember that 17 to 18 is the max. Most likely it will fall below that number.

In cases like this you throw out early state polls in favor of mathematical common sense.

I'm sure this will be viewed by some as negativity. I wish they made the betting lines. If I could give 1/3 on McCain winning North Dakota it would be grand theft. And same thing in the other direction, if there were heavily blue states that the GOP thought it could swipe, like Hawaii and New Jersey in recent years.

when we can look back and see who was right and who was wrong. Until then I don't pay attention to polls.

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:I know polls can come back to bite you, and I will not lose my focus, but sometimes you have to stop and woo hoo !!!