Newsweek Poll: Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 41%

Has it really become THIS close??

According to this post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6451032 and referencing this webpage: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_08/004536.php,
I would beg to differ because the chart here shows that a 3 point lead with a margin of error of 4% is actually a 78% probability and not a tossup.

let down our guard.

but it is not a statistical dead heat. We need to give McCain and the Republicans a humiliation beating, but I'm afraid as Democrats we have the knack of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. Currently, we have as many people "constructively criticizing" Obama as we have going after McCain and the Republicans. Evidently it is our misfortune not to have the perfect candidate.

beating. It will be close.

Unless the two numbers are exactly tied.

that's not what margin of error means.

In one country, which Newsweek polled in June, the electorate is split R26/D38/I36. In the other country, which Newsweek polled a few weeks later, that country's electorate is split R32/D32/I36.

In one country, polled in June, 84% of the electorate is white. In the other country, polled a few weeks later, 88% of the electorate is white.

In one country, polled in June, 19% of the registered voters are under 40, 39% are between 40 and 59, and 42% are 60 or older. In the other country, polled a few weeks later, only 17% of the registered voters are under 40, 38% are between 40 and 59, and 45% are 60 or older.

In the younger, slightly more racially diverse and much more Democratic country, Barack Obama was supposedly leading by 15 points. In the country that is somewhat older, is somewhat whiter, and is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, Barack Obama is supposedly leading McCain by only 3 points.

According to Newsweek, comparing these results shows "what a difference a few weeks can make." A more valid conclusion is that it shows what a difference polling two very different countries can make.

"Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage...

More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics."

Why no mention of McCain's REAL flip-flops? No mention of his changes on off-shore drilling, immigration, Iraq withdrawal (HE changed his position on Iraq more than OBAMA has)