Before getting worked up...read the OTHER Rasmussen story...

brooklynite

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Sat Jul-12-08 05:07 PM
Original message

Before getting worked up...read the OTHER Rasmussen story...

Edited on Sat Jul-12-08 05:15 PM by brooklynite

Election 2008: Electoral College Update

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator (see methodology below) shows Barack Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while John McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, Obama leads 293-227.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

Setting aside the question of whether we should obsess over endlessly changing daily polls that differ from other daily polls, its important to remember that this is not a national election, and we're still ahead in the state-by-state matchups.

Safe Democratic: CA CT DC HI IL MD MA ME NY RI VT
Likely Democratic: DE MN NJ OR WI WA
Lean Democratic: CO (pickup) IA (pickup) MN NH NM (pickup) OH (pickup) PA
Tossup: NV VA
Lean Republican: FL MO MT NC ND
Likely Republican: AK AR AZ GA IN KS LA MS NE SC SD TN TX WV
Safe Republican: AL ID KY OK UT WY

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seasat

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Sat Jul-12-08 06:23 PM
Response to Original message

1. They need to check out the Pollster.com charts too.

The individual state charts show us in great shape. All the Lean Repub states in Rasmussen's list show Obama gaining and even leading in some recent polls. In all the lean Democratic States (except for Ohio) Obama has been in the lead in every poll for that past two months. If the election were held today, Obama would win in an electoral landslide.

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Ian David

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Sat Jul-12-08 06:30 PM
Response to Original message

2. I predict we pick up 6-12 seats in The Senate. n/t

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dtotire

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Sat Jul-12-08 07:32 PM
Response to Original message

3. Check out EV projections from a conservative website.

This is from a conservative website.

http://www.freedomslighthouse.com/

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On the Road

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Sun Jul-13-08 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #3

7. It's Very Telling

that all that site can complain about is that Obama has an enormous ego.

:headbang:

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Tarheel_Dem

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Sun Jul-13-08 12:29 AM
Response to Original message

4. It's curious that the Newsweek poll is getting all the recommendations and posts,

but this one is allowed to sink. The trolls and bitter primary losers want to dispirit the rest of us, and to some degree, it seems to be working. I only wish I could recommend this more than once.

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Political Heretic

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Sun Jul-13-08 12:39 AM
Response to Original message

5. Better yet - ONLY READ POLL AVERAGES - such as from RCP

It's stupid to look at one poll and flip out. CNN's poll of polls (in other words, takes all the major polls and averages their results together, for an even more accurate picture) has Obama up by 8 points, a two point gain. That was from July 10th.

Real Clear Politics is a good one stop shop for poll averages, and its the only way to follow an election and not lose your mind! :)

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krispos42

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Sun Jul-13-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message

6. Very true

We're not in a national race; we're in 51 winner-take-all state races.

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