New ARG numbers for NH : see analysis of undecideds

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Their analysis shows Clark and Dean battling for undecideds (based on favorability)

.......snipped
Beyond Ballot Preference - January 5, 2004

During the past week, Howard Dean's unfavorable rating has not increased and Dean remains to be viewed more favorably than the other candidates by undecided voters.

Overall, 15% of likely Democratic primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean.

Of the 17% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in the ballot preference, 63% have a favorable opinion of Howard Dean, 60% have a favorable opinion of Wesley Clark, 58% have a favorable opinion of Joe Lieberman, 51% have a favorable opinion of John Kerry, 47% have a favorable opinion of John Edwards, and 40% have a favorable opinion of Dick Gephardt.

Good lord! *sigh*

We'll take em for swim, come on the water's nice. :)

Given that Kerry is currently two-points ahead of Clark and 18% are undecided and Clark has a better favorable rating with undecideds than Kerry--it is not unrealistic to think that Clark could overcome Kerry by primary day. Interesting too that according to the tracking poll, Lieberman has remained consistent at 6% and with a higher favorable rating than Kerry too. If he were to somehow come in third that would be a shocker.

nothing much will change until someone drops out.

Dec 26-28 Dec 27-29 Dec 28-30 Dec 29-31 Dec 30-Jan 1 Dec 31-Jan 2 Jan
1-3

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12%
Dean 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39%
Edwards 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Gephardt 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6%
Kerry 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14%
Kucinich 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Lieberman 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Undecided 18% 18% 17% 16% 19% 18% 16%

Sample size 617 622 623 620 630 624 631


Dean, Gephardt, and Kucinich are each up a point, while Clark is down a point, and undecideds dropped from 18 to 16%.

:)

and that these polls are essentially meaningless. :)

Why do you feel the need to distort?

Sad.

and I'll post it. I always try to respect the original thread starter by remaining focused on their immediate subject/premise, but I understand that there are others who for whatever reason are unable to do so.

And if you really believe these polls are essentially meaningless, why do you enagage yourself in threads about them and cite them as authorities?

Independents are the majority in NH, and they vote in both primiaries. The majority of Independents in NH prefer Howard Dean according to earlier polls I saw. That's what I see in NH as well. The polls don't include enough Independents to get an accurate enough idea of what things look like in NH. Dean is on very, very solid ground, I know that. I have no idea how Clark is doing with Independents in NH. What I do know is that without enough support from them, you can't win NH. I'm glad Dean does really great with them.

Please continue here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=64655&mesg_id=64655