CBS Analysis Race Between Obama and McCain shows "Extraordinary Enthusiasm Gap"

Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"?





CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: If There Is One, Does It Matter?



CBS Analyst Answers both Questions with a firm yes.

50% of Obama Enthusiastic while only 16% of McCain supporters are.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/18/opinion/pollpositions/main4273290.shtml






The most extraordinary difference between the supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama is in what we have chosen to label “enthusiasm.” The latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, completed on July 14, shows Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. That’s only six points. And more than one in three registered voters either admit that their minds aren’t completely made up, or that they are truly undecided about their preference.

But the voters who have made a choice display an “enthusiasm gap” that overwhelms differences in support.


Asked how they feel about the fact that their choice is the party’s nominee, 50 percent of Obama’s current voters say they are “enthusiastic.” Just 16 percent of McCain’s supporters say that about his candidacy. And while more than half of McCain voters are “satisfied” with McCain, 15 percent say they are “dissatisfied” or even “angry” that he is the nominee!


How important is it that their candidate wins in November? It matters more to Obama voters: 37 percent of them say an Obama victory is “extremely important” to them, compared with 24 percent of McCain voters who say so about a McCain victory. Adding in those who think a victory by the person they are voting for is “very important” but not necessarily “extremely important” 69 percent of Obama voters - but only 53 percent of McCain voters - say it matters that much.


Are voters satisfied with their options? Historically, about half of all voters will say they wish there were more choices; and this year is no different. But again, there is a party divide. Two out of three Obama supporters are satisfied; just 29 percent want more candidates in the race. But the percentages are reversed among McCain voters: 60 percent of them wish there were more options, while only 29 percent are satisfied with the choices of only McCain and Obama.



Strength of support or level of enthusiasm can sometimes make a difference in an election, as the candidate who wins is often the candidate whose supporters care most about winning.

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In late July, 2004, even AFTER that year’s Democratic Convention and before the Republicans met, John Kerry’s supporters were a lot less committed to their candidate than supporters of George W. Bush were committed to theirs. Sixty percent of Bush voters said they “strongly” favored their candidate; just 47 percent of Kerry’s supporters said that. There was another motivation for many Kerry voters - 28 percent said they were voting for Kerry mostly because they disliked Bush. Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign. Even in polls taken just before the 2004 election there wasn’t much difference: 67 percent of Bush voters said they supported him strongly, compared with just 49 percent of Kerry voters. And while 37 percent of likely Republican voters said they would be “excited” by a Bush win, just 24 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be “excited” by a Kerry victory.