The Daily Widget – Monday, July 21 – Obama 364, McCain 174 – Mixed Signals

Contents:
1. Tidbits – Mixed Signals
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map, Links and Sources


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1. TIDBITS – Mixed Signals

As indices begin to level off for Barack Obama, the Ups and Downs can sometimes tell a story. Slight movements over time may be just as revealing as big swings. So, what’s up? What’s going down?

UP – National Daily Tracking Polls. At one point or another over the past couple weeks, Barack Obama and John McCain were tied in both the national daily trackers. Looking at FIGURE 5b below, Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking (with leaners) is back up to 47% for Obama, while Gallup Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics’ Average hold steady. So why is this considered up? McCain’s national poll numbers are beginning to sink again. Although the whole field is down a bit from a couple weeks ago, Obama’s lead is increasing because McCain’s polling is dropping. This is also an indicator of an increasing number of Undecided voters in polls.

UP – Trading. Although Obama is staying level on Intrade, his shares are increasing slightly in value on Rasmussen Markets (see FIGURE 5b). Those are his overall trading figures. For our Swing States group, however, the group’s value continues to gain (see FIGURE 5a). Since we began tracking this group of states on Intrade a couple months ago, the group’s value has increased by 16%. These numbers reached new highs last week. This is an indicator that speculation of Obama’s chances in the Swing States is up.

DOWN – Popular Vote. Obama’s projected popular vote is down about 0.5% from the highs it reached about 10 days ago. The upside of this drop is the source. Both California and New York were polled by second-tier polling agencies last week, and although Obama maintains very strong leads there, the polling agencies showed higher Undecideds than previous results showed for these two states. Replacement polls should bring these numbers back up.

DOWN – Electoral Votes Reported From Other Sources. Electoral-Vote.com is showing a closer race than I am projecting, but I’ve noticed a couple differences. Electoral-Vote.com is using Rasmussen’s polls without leaners, which increases the overall percentage of Undecideds on their map and also increases their overall margin of error. Other polling agencies report poll results with leaners as a given. And Electoral-Vote.com still isn’t reporting the latest Florida poll showing Obama with a 2.7% lead over McCain there. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight.com is also showing a narrowing race, but their projection isn’t a “snapshot” like mine and Electoral-Vote.com’s. Theirs is a true projection of what the results should be on Election Day. When 538’s numbers drop for Obama, we should be concerned.

The moral of the story: We need to pick UP the pace to prevent Obama’s numbers from sliding further DOWN. Now is a good time to become active and donate as your ability permits.

You know it’ll be worth it! :D


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

The three state polls released since Friday all move to the right. Virginia switched from leaning Obama to leaning McCain. Maine weakened a bit for Obama, and Alaska strengthened a bit for McCain. So, Obama goes 0 for 3 today in state polls.


Alaska Obama 41, McCain 51 (Research 2000/Daily Kos, 7/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine Obama 49, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 7/17, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 7/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP, LINKS AND SOURCES





Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls



As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

Love the new graphics. And thanks for your cogent analysis...per usual!

:kick:

It looks less stale, doesn't it? Trying to keep the cobwebs away, lol

:donut: Thanks! :hi:

increase for Obama. Hopefully there will be positive gains from this week and the convention will also help with giving him a boost.

:donut: Good morning, Kdillard! :hi:

I'm waiting for economic reality to hit the electoral fan--seen any signs of it yet?

Of course, first it would have to hit the newspapers and TV MSM.....because who are they going to believe: Limbaugh or their lying eyes?

(or spreadsheet, for those of us who are living in the 21st century, lol)

Although many are having sticker shock and feeling the pinch, they don't equate it with politics. They easily accept it as unchangeable, imho. It's up to us to drill it into their heads. The republicans this year will do anything to keep economic hardship and politics separate.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

lil math dude woke up in the middle of the night feeling sick, so we are a bit groggy still. McCain is in our state today and it is rainy which is making us even more in a foul mood. x(

We do like your new graphics and all of your great information! :hi:

Hope LMD feels better soon. :donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

What do all the colors, lines, dates, and numbers mean? :)

Never mind, I'll get Little Math Dude to explain it to me when he's feeling better.

I'd probably get nightmares after seeing McCain's wet combover, too.

"Help! It's a giant, radiation-burned Tribble with psoriasis talking about NAFTA!"

Of course you mean the giant, radiation-burned Maverick Tribble with psoriasis.

:donut: Good morning, Youph! :hi:

:rofl:

He's not feeling better yet, but you cheered me up a bit. Thanks. :)

Obama has such a commanding lead, he can ride out little dips here and there. He will rebound and bounce back from the shifts down.

His overseas trip should help and mcdubya still isn't going anywhere.

Good thing popular vote doesn't win elections. And Obama will take the fight out of McCain with foreign policy.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

Enjoy your day :D

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/

It is showing 9% lead by Obama but a large undecideds 18%


Doing my canvassing I still get a lot of undecideds - including Democrats that are just not comfortable with Obama yet. But none of them are expressing any interest in McCain, so as these undecideds get more comfortable with Obama I expect them to break big for Obama.


Also interesting is the fact that June was Obama's lowest expenditure month this year and he increased his cash on hand to $72 million. These frugal folks are storing their ammunition for when they need it.

McCain' cash on hand is around $ 25 million but he is spending more than he is taking in and after the convention in August he will have only $ 85 million to spend. While the RNC is raising huge amounts of money its not clear how much they will spend on the Presidential campaign when they have so many Senatorial and Congressional seats in trouble.

Virginia remains the most important battleground state that is currently pink and continues to reinforce my belief that it will be Kaine for VP.

Harris Interactive refers to "The Matures" ... :rofl:

Does that mean Elderly Voters? And what is it about putting the word "The" in front of an adverb to create a new stereotype and a label?! This one really bothers me when referring to gay people: "The Gays". Pet Peeve! :puke:

Next thing you know we'll have new voting blocs:
- The Youngs
- The Fats (or The Obeses)
- The Ignorants
- The Fed-Ups (or is that the Feds-Up?)

:thumbsup:

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/07/more-young-virginians-are-registering-will-they-vote

I wonder how this type of voter registration effects poll weighting models - are they making adjustments.


We take Virginia McCain doesn't have a chance.

My spreadsheet is calculating 150,000 new voters in Virginia. The fact that about a third of them are 26 or under does give it a blue hew!

"Population growth could be contributing to the surge, given that the number of 18- to 24-year-olds is growing faster than Virginia’s overall population, according to counts and projections by the U.S. Census Bureau."

Great news! :thumbsup: