New Michigan Poll: Obama and McCain in tight race

Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a tight Michigan presidential race, according to a Detroit News-WXYZ Action News poll that illustrates why both camps consider this one of the battleground states that could determine who wins in November.

Obama has the support of 43 percent of likely Michigan voters, to 41 percent for McCain, according to the survey conducted for The News and WXYZ by Lansing's EPIC-MRA. That's well within the survey's 4 percentage point error margin. A potentially decisive 12 percent say they're still undecided, and 5 percent chose third-party candidates Bob Barr or Ralph Nader.

"Just as we thought, it's going to be a close race in Michigan," said David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University.

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The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average.

The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses.

• Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change.

• McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security.

http://www.detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/METRO/807210415

..... It WAY oversamples Repugs. So it's really not that close.