Obama's lead in daily tracking polls, 7/22: Rasmussen 43-42, Gallup 45-42

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.2% chance of winning the White House.

New data released today shows that Democrats hold a nine-percentage point advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Other data reveals an Inconvenient Perception about Al Gore’s recent proposals—voters tend to view them as unrealistic and costly. Still, 53% have a favorable opinion of the former Vice President.

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When leaners are included, Obama leads by six points among women while McCain has a seven point edge among men. McCain is currently supported by 85% of Republicans and holds a modest six percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/109006/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Contest-Remains-Close.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their presidential preferences, with 45% favoring Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 19-21, and 42% backing John McCain.

Gallup also finds 7% of voters saying they won't vote for either candidate, and another 6% are still undecided.

Obama performed above par with voters in two of the last four days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, spanning a period of heavy news coverage of his overseas trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. This resulted in the race widening slightly to a difference of six percentage points in Monday's report based on interviewing conducted July 18-20. However, interviewing Monday night showed a closer race, suggesting that the question of how much bounce Obama may receive from his trip is still an open one.

Longer term, the race has been quite stable. Obama's current 3-point lead in the race is nearly identical to the average lead he has held over McCain thus far in July, and matches his 3-point advantage in the race for the month of June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Lydia Saad