The Daily Widget – Friday, July 25 – Obama 356, McCain 182 – The Nail-Biter States

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. TIDBITS – The Nail-Biter States

(Tangent: The 6-column state chart is in high demand, so I am making it a part of this post every day. It will be located in Section 7, just below the electoral college map.) :D

My posts this week have been about Mixed Signals. Although this year’s election is definitely not a horse race, it is still marginally close. Some national polls have Obama leading by one or two points, and others show him leading by five or six. Anything beyond that is an outlier at this point, imo.

My snapshot is showing Obama currently leading nationwide by 3.6 points (46.7 to 43.1), with 7.2% undecided. When we factor in the Wigand Electoral Average for projection, Obama’s lead expands to 4.6 points (50.8 to 46.2).

Of course, this refers directly to the nationwide popular vote, not the electoral vote. But there are a few states where the statewide popular vote could tip the electoral vote and the election. These are the Nail-Biters, and they currently encompass 80 electoral votes.

If one candidate led by 348 electoral votes to 190 electoral votes (today’s count is 356-182) and lost all five of the current Nail-Biters, the leading candidate would lose the election (268 to 270).

Ohio (20) (McCain +1) – Polls for Ohio this year have been all over the place. Obama has been polling between 40% and 50% here this year, while McCain’s polls have been ranging between 38% and 52%. One pollster (Rasmussen) has shown McCain winning in every poll, while the rest of the batch has gone back and forth.

Indiana (11) (Obama +1) – McCain owned Indiana up until the primary battle there. Since then, Obama has led there in three of the last four polls. Obama’s range is between 38% and 49% in Indiana, while McCain has been polling from 40% to 51%. Indiana is due for another poll, as the last legitimate poll there was conducted a month ago.

Florida (27) (Obama +0.5) – If you wonder why sometimes a projection can take a huge leap or show a major drop, most of the time you can blame Florida. In the past couple months, Florida polls have switched from red to blue and back again a couple times. This year, Obama has been polling between 37% and 49% in Florida, while McCain’s range is four points higher (41% to 53%). Of the 21 polls conducted in Florida this year, Obama has led in only four of them. But all four of these polls have occurred in the last six weeks.

Virginia (13) (Obama +0.5) – Survey USA was the first to catch Obama high on the Virginia radar back in February. Obama has led McCain in Virginia in six of the last seven polls conducted there. But this is new territory for us. Obama is ranging between 39% and 51% in Virginia this year, while McCain has been polling between 39% and 52%.

Colorado (9) (Obama +0.5) – McCain is beginning to gain ground in Colorado, which was considered just outside of his reach until this week. Obama was on a seven-poll winning streak in Colorado until Quinnipiac’s new poll (see below) showed McCain leading there by two points. Quinnipiac is trustworthy, and we should give this new poll our attention. Each candidate’s range in Colorado is very similar (Obama 39%-50%, McCain 38%-51%).


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

Eight new polls have been released since yesterday. Quinnipiac University is now showing McCain leading in Colorado and Obama barely leading in Minnesota. At the same time, Pennsylvania moves outside the margin of error and becomes a Weak Obama state. In the states that change categories today, Obama goes one for three.

By the way, did you notice Wisconsin’s trading? Up 12.70 to 92.00! (See Figure 2b above and Figure 6b below.) Wisconsin becomes the first swing state to cross the 90 mark, as Obama continues to poll Strong Blue there.


Colorado Obama 44, McCain 46 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Michigan Obama 46, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.4, 1684 LV)
Minnesota Obama 46, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.8, 1261 LV)
Mississippi Obama 42, McCain 51 (Research 2000, 7/23, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Dakota Obama 42, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 7/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 3.0, 1094 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls



As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

Damn them. *sigh*.

I still like Obama's numbers, and can't wait for the post-Convention campaign to kick off.

But I gotta have me some polls, lol. I'm a pollaholic.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

Thank you for adding that 6 column state chart.

:thumbsup:

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

and I can't tell you how much lmd enjoys it, I think it is his fav :)

Plus that grantcart guy kept bellyaching, wanting to see an update of it, lol. (Oh, and Demeter likes it)

btw, why doesn't grantcart ever use smileys? I coaxed a smiley out of him once or twice, but it's like pulling teeth!

:D :bounce: :7

but I don't think I have ever gotten one from him. :cry:

:P

Ohio:

1) Is it polling, or psychological warfare on the voters?

2) Do they have captive pollees, and play two separate and distinct groups against each other?

3) Are the questions so ambiguous that a busy person can't make heads or tails of them?

I guess I'm questioning the methodology. I doubt that humans are that fickle, and they sure aren't paying that much attention yet--especially in Ohio, where the local economy might be even worse than it is here in Michigan.

A place of known corruption and electoral fraud has a hard time proving itself.

I was thinking along the same lines.

They've been polled so many times that maybe they'll give any answer to shut the poller up!

The poll results are from all the polling agencies, including some who do push polling (allegedly, wink wink), like Strategic Vision and TelOpinion (allegedly, nudge nudge). The methodology should definitely be questioned for each poll. And when we're dealing with "likely voters" instead of "registered voters" ... the samples usually go haywire.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

And good evening, P-man! Boy, it got hot today. Guess our cooling off period is over.

put on women's clothing and hang around in bars. :7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zey8567bcg&feature=related

(But you knew I was going to say that)

and I hate bars anyway.

Indiana:

Florida:

Virginia:

Colorado:

One at least shows public opinions shifting....

:donut: :hi:

It's like 5:30 a.m. there! Get a drink of water and go back to bed. March!

:7

538.com gives Quinnipiac one of the best pollster ratings.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

:donut: Good morning, grantcart! :hi: <--- (I never get a chance to do that, lol)

Happy Friday!

:kick:

Thanks! :hi:

But it's eerily similar to what I'm seeing here.

I finally had the chance to participate in a Zogby members-only-online-interactive poll, since I'm now a "member" ... The poll asked about 40 questions. A few were about the candidates and energy policy, and about a dozen questions were about dusting around the house, allergens and hypoallergenic products.

"This poll is brought to you by Lemon Fresh Pledge. By the way, how much is your income and what's your religion?"

Nah, they wouldn't share that information with corporations, would they? :banghead:

:shrug:

McDummy wins - I just don't know what I will do !

The stream is still running entirely on Obama's property, and all McCain has is a drought.



But those Corona commercials are making the Bahamas look great. Dual citizenship? lol

Thanks! :hi:

And red it is. Here's Arizona's poll history:



That last one ( ) is a Zogby Interactive poll.