Just read an interview with cartoonist and noted liberal Jules Feiffer...

Bicoastal

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Tue Jul-29-08 12:11 AM
Original message

Just read an interview with cartoonist and noted liberal Jules Feiffer...

...he believes that the country is still so racist that the only way Obama will win the election by 3 or 4 points is to be ahead in the polling by 15.

Under 15, says Feiffer, will be a landslide for McCain.

Sigh. :scared:

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Captain Angry

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Tue Jul-29-08 12:14 AM
Response to Original message

1. Well, let's not find out if he's right.

And win by 20. :-)

The reason I don't worry about that is because the media will never, ever report a gap of more than 5 points for more than a day. The next poll will come out and it will be 2. Then 12, then 4, then -2, etc.

The media needs a horse race to keep people watching. If it was consistent at 10 points or more for a few days, MSNBC would have to start airing 24 hours of Lockup since there'd be nothing for the political spinners to talk about.

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Smarmie Doofus

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Tue Jul-29-08 01:38 AM
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2. Jules is a bit 1960ish.

That was an accepted article of faith back then: that some white pollees would tell the pollster "yes" for black candidates and then proceed to vote "no" in the privacy of the booth.

We shall see. Obama did better last Spring than some of the preprimary polling indicated he would.

Let's hope this is myth or a 60s anachronism.

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elkston

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Tue Jul-29-08 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. I don't think its as bad as he says, but it will be a factor.

Barack needs to pull ahead into a comfortable, consistent lead over 10 points. This will insulate from any "Bradley Effect", IMHO.

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Radical Activist

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Tue Jul-29-08 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #3

5. No way.

Polls aren't going to measure the increase in black and youth turnout. If polls show them tied then he wins by 3-6%.

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elkston

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Tue Jul-29-08 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #5

6. True. If we supercharge turnout it will be a BIG surprise.

I would love to see the SHOCK in the Repubs. faces if we win Georgia and/or North Carolina.

It would truly sybmolize the NEW overtaking the OLD.

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Captain Hilts

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Tue Jul-29-08 07:01 AM
Response to Reply #3

9. Agreed. This country has seen and felt comfortable with black men in positions of authority.

The military. Sports, film, etc.

Women, on the other hand, have a l o n g way to go.

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Radical Activist

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Tue Jul-29-08 01:52 AM
Response to Original message

4. Who?

He's wrong. A lot of liberals are negative nellies by nature. Especially ones who never regained hope sometime after 1972.

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fasttense

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Tue Jul-29-08 04:35 AM
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7. That's a common talking point that he is simply repeating.

Real racist don't indicate they are racist on polls.

Well the same thing can be said about people who discriminate based on age. Real age discriminates don't indicate they discriminate on polls.

There is also the creepy old man factor that does not come out in polls. People hear McInsane talk and get creeped out by his resemblances to their funny uncle trying to lure children into his car.

In the end, only in the US are polls so continually unreliable.

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Franks Wild Years

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Tue Jul-29-08 04:55 AM
Response to Reply #7

8. Indeed.

And the Bradley Effect is a bit of a myth, anyway. His share of the vote wasn't down on projections (it was up by about 1%, in fact) - the Republicans simply energised their base by shifting a lot of focus to the handgun bill on the same ballot.

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