would Kaine as VP help Obama win any states he might not otherwise win?

Would it make it more likely that Obama would lose any states he would otherwise win?

My view is that he could very well help pull Obama over the top in VA and that he wouldn't cause Obama to lose any state he would otherwise win. He also might help in NC.

Sibelius is very popular in KS, but I'm not sure it would be enough to pull Obama past McCain. Maybe. Again, Sibelius probably wouldn't cost Obama any states.

Hopefully, Senator Obama won't need him here. But if he's putting his NC hopes on Governor Kaine, he needs to start devoting resources elsewhere, because that won't work.

I can't recall it ever happening.

Kaine helped Obama win the primary in VA. I imagine he could help win the general in VA, if it is possible for a Dem to win there.

there is certainly reason to believe he'd help. I'm also fairly confident that Bayh would actually tip Indiana, if Obama's not going to win it anyway.

I don't think a running mate will truly deliver a state anymore but if it's really close the familiarity and trust factor will weight a side of the coin.

The biggest question in the veepstakes is (at least on our side) can Senator Clinton bring in/reclaim a significant portion of voters or not, and if so do they outnumber those lost and those motivated to vote against us from the other side? It seems in most quarters, those that aren't aboard now claim they never will be even if she runs with him. IF that is the case then what does Senator Clinton do for our ticket? What are the benefits to governing with her?

I don't know. I tend to say Biden is the guy or we can bring back General Clark but Kaine could be a smart play. I'll support Clinton IF I can see a benefit, otherwise I see a couple of short time Senators neither of which is a specialist in any area, one a cuss word in many GOP and Independent homes, with the other rapidly earning a similar review.

Again, I'm coming from the perspective of at least a semi-neutral democrat.
I certainly didn't start in the tank or against either of our final two. Granting that my opinion of Obama grows almost daily and the tail end of the primaries really hurt my opinions of Hillary.

Obama and his team are the best campaigners I've seen and he has the most potential (no disrespect intended to William Jefferson Clinton who is still the most developed talent in this arena), his demeanor about perfectly embodies the temperament that is crucial in a leader, his talent for the bully pulpit (the greatest "real time" power of the President, imo) is uncanny, and he seems to have the best of the best around him. Whatever I don't like about him, I'm confident we have a pretty bright guy on our hands and brains will carry you a long way.

Contrasted by Senator Clinton, who honestly went into open rebellion against the party and party rules in mid-stream, she created a dangerously divisive protest in two swing states over a punishment she signed off on, created and perfected ALL of the fascist talking points...ALL, and talked up Rove and the GOP primary process and rules. As a Democrat I am disappointed in her as a politician as I have ever been. Any venom against her on my part is born from that disappointment, not some Republican like lynch mob mentality.

Still, I'm full in for whatever shakes out. In could be Clinton/Insert yellow dog of your choice and I'd do everything I could to get them elected because it's too damn important not to at least slow the madness.

Alright, one caveat. I refuse to ever vote for Joementum ever again. Lieberman and anybody, maybe even a Kucinich and I go PUMA (or some variant).

There's only one perfect VP out there, and that's Webb. Everybody else has flaws.

Maybe Richardson would be #2 to Webb in that dept.

Who's Webb going to bring over who otherwise would have voted for McCain? No-one. The Northern Virginia voters who went with Webb probably are going to vote for Obama anyway. Same with any minority voters who probably would have voted for Obama regardless of who was running against him.

As far as the military, I expect that a portion of any military votes that Webb drew in 2006 will go over to McCain simply because McCain is going to be the CIC, not Webb.

There are also some people who probably would have voted for Allen but for the "macaca" moment. Unless McCain has a similar "foot in mouth moment" those people will likely drift back to McCain.

All in all, there's no reason to believe that Webb is going to be any great help in bringing Virginia over to Obama in the election.

...on MTP on Sunday that he was not picking a VP based on region.

The VP is meant to step in and be president if events require it. It would be very irresponsible to pick someone based on bringing in a swing state.

I just don't happen to think someone who has served as the governor of a state is unqualified. Do you?

That is only the slightest exaggeration. North Carolina will laugh at Kaine first, ignore him second.

I know I'm much better off shouting it without exceptions than pretending it doesn't apply to the current bozo or bozess.

I love the conventional wisdom that Romney would be a boost in Michigan and Nevada. Keep flailing. There's some sense that Hillary would retrieve a percentage of her supporters but overall I think it would be a wash and at VP she'd only help in New York where we don't need it and Arkansas where it wouldn't be enough. She could have carried Arkansas atop the ticket.

Obama seems to grasp the VP role better than anyone in my memory. Use Kaine to boost Virginia or Bayh to bump Indiana. Both have double digit electoral votes and adding either one changes the margin of error so dramatically we basically can lose Florida and Ohio and still reach 270 by splitting second tier swing states. If math were a strong point on DU, very few would be resisting Kaine at VP.

Virginia is still red. We need to keep that in mind. It was 5.7 points GOP leaning compared to the nation as a whole in 2004 and that gap has not been eliminated on the federal level, everything being equal. We're putting too much stock in Warner, Kaine and Webb winning statewide. Those were favorable matchups and of course Allen self destructed. The demographics are slowly painting Virginia from north to south but it's a slow brush, about 1 point per year tops.

I'm extremely impressed that Obama seems to realize Virginia is vital but unlikely unless he has a jump start from a local.

..but if he can bump Virginia's 13 EVs into our column, we'd only need the Kerry states (252EVs) and one other swing state.

Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico.. any one of those would do.

As it is, Webb barely won even with Macaca. People give Webb to much cachet for someone who won by only a few thousand votes.

with leaners: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

It is reasonable to imagine that with Gov. Kaine on the ticket a difference of a couple of percent could likely be expected to push Virginia into the Democratic column.

and IMHO, the VP should be someone who can take the reigns in the event of an emergency or issue with the POTUS.

Biden would be best. :hi:

It's a state we've been gunning for--and Kaine will only help us. Remember, we've already effectively flipped Iowa. Iowa + Virginia + Kerry states = President Obama.

Could he help Obama win these states? Maybe.