Reuters: Economic models predict clear Obama win in November

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0138628820080801

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It really is the economy, stupid! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.

Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome.

"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.

His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent.

"This model has correctly predicted the winning party 12 out of 14 times," Macroeconomic Advisers said.

I like those words!