Rasmussen Poll: Obama up by 13 in CT and McCain up by 19 in AZ

book_worm

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Mon Aug-04-08 04:43 PM
Original message

Rasmussen Poll: Obama up by 13 in CT and McCain up by 19 in AZ

CT: Obama over McCain 53-40
Arizona: McCain over Obama 57-38

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_rasmussen_arizona_730_con.php

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Drunken Irishman

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Mon Aug-04-08 04:44 PM
Response to Original message

1. I keep telling people Arizona is not in play.

And it's that 38%, which another poll had Obama at that was posted here a few days ago. If Obama isn't breaking 40%, even if it shows him down 9-10 points, it doesn't matter.

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Alexander

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Mon Aug-04-08 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. It will be closer here than it was in 2000 and 2004.

If it wasn't McCain's home state, I'd say we had a 50/50 shot at taking AZ.

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Drunken Irishman

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Mon Aug-04-08 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. Possible, but I doubt it.

Kerry only lost Arizona by 10 points, I see the same for Obama this time around.

It would have been closer had McCain not been the candidate, but since he is, it'll keep a double digit win almost certain.

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Awsi Dooger

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Mon Aug-04-08 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #1

7. Arizona was never in play

I've seen the posts and threads asserting otherwise. A couple of times I started a sarcastic reply then canceled it.

State polls are meaningless unless they jive with the national margin and the known partisan tendencies of the state, adjusted by logical variables. It's the height of illogic to suggest a state with a considerable GOP tilt and a favorite son of the same party is going to vote the other way.

You need the Monty Python theme song playing in the background if you want to make that type of claim.

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BuyingThyme

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Mon Aug-04-08 06:09 PM
Response to Original message

4. Who's paying money to poll in Arizona?

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Hippo_Tron

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Mon Aug-04-08 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. That's a good question, I can't imagine Rasmussen does it for no reason

He's got to have some financial incentive.

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Drunken Irishman

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Mon Aug-04-08 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. He did Utah.

And Utah, well, that's safe Republican.

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