Political discussion

All the fussing over Obama and whether he is fighting hard enough or that he is losing the election right now or that he doesn't understand how to play the media has got me thinking. Personally, I don't accept the idea that Obama is stupid when it comes to politics. I don't believe he saw what happened in 2004 and isn't willing to do anything about it or has no strategies to combat it. And, by the way, we are seeing EXACTLY the same strategy as before just different smears and ploys. I refuse to accept (right now) that he isn't playing the game right or doesn't understand what Rove politics is or how to combat it.

What do I think is going on? Well for one, he doesn't want to be seen as the top dog early on. There are momentum cycles and you can't keep that momentum up all the way to the election, it will turn around. It's the whole underdog coming back theory. Obama is at his best when he's down. We all know a week in politics is an eternity. We had unrealistic expectations that he could keep a decent lead with no budging until the election. What we HAVE seen is that Obama has, all summer, been coasting in the polls at an average of +3 or +4 ahead. Notice in Rasmussen 2004 polling, it was Bush who had been up in the polls all spring/summer until Kerry's VP pick and convention and then after that bump it came back to pre Kerry convention levels.
What does it say that in McCain's best week he is still only +1 in LV Rasmussen and -3 in Gallup? What does it say that out of 50 polls in the past couple of months, Obama has led in nearly all of them? Obama momentum is down right now, he can't keep that huge enthusiasm he had up all the way to Nov. 4, it has cycles. And we are in a down cycle right now.

Secondly, the perceived downturn that has happened lately is doing a few things. It's raising Obama's fundraising SIGNIFICANTLY. He needs that to fight in the fall. It's also making him look less like a "the one" figure that McCain likes to paint him as. And it is using up some of McCain's maverick capital. Most people following this race know McCain is running a Rove campaign like Bush did. Now he can be painted as John W. McBush III.

I predict that after the Democratic convention, Obama will have a +5 or +6 lead in Gallup and Rasmussen followed by a McCain +2 or +3 a few days after the Republican convention. After that it will simmer down to Obama +2 or +3. That is when we will see the Obama the fighter, the one we knew in the primaries, come back. And lets hope he opens up the blasters on McCain. Smear or not, I don't care. This is about winning the White House and protecting the Supreme Court from RW nuts.

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Before I finish out I'd like to comment on the recent Rasmussen +1 leaners for McCain. They are using the new August numbers of Democratic registration which is 2 points down from what they had in July. What caused this? Democrats running away from the party? I think there is a more reasonable answer. They are independents that registered as Democrats to vote in the primaries since many states require that. They are now moving back to Independent, but they are likely still going to vote Democratic. So I'm not sure if Rasmussen models understand that. Backing that theory up is the fact that Republican registration barely moved at all which we would guess that that is because their primaries didn't last as long and there was little enthusiasm. Now it could also be that those 2% were Hillary supporters that registered Democratic just to vote for her. I'm not so sure on that though.





Thoughts on all this? Additions?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?pagewanted=1&hp

In the 26 states and the District of Columbia where registration data were available, the total number of registered Democrats increased by 214,656, while the number of Republicans fell by 1,407,971.

For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among those who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many legislatures and governors’ mansions.

In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant gains in registration. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004. No states have switched to the Republicans over the same period, according to data from 26 of the 29 states in which voters register by party. (Three of the states did not have complete data.)

In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined. In only three states — Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma — did Republican registration rise while Democratic registration fell, but the Republican increase was less than a percentage point in Kentucky and Oklahoma. Louisiana was the only state to register a gain of more than one percentage point for Republicans as Democratic numbers declined.

Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a greater rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party.

Which is still down about 7 or 8 points of what it should be for Obama. Another part of Obama's strategy right now is to get those people behind him. If he can make up the lost Dem ground, then voter registration will do the rest. Having Hillary out there or.....ON THE TICKET.. could do that..........One drawback being that it would rally Republicans, but they are already almost maxed out in support for McCain.

I'm sure I could add more, but I'm exhausted by all the shitheads who are posting concern threads to do it right now.

Thanks for getting our backs on this.

:patriot: