Encouraging signs

1. McCain and Obama are now tied, for the first time, in Rasmussen favorable ratings at 54%. We can assume that that is a result of McCain's constant attacks and plain dirty politicking. McCain needs to tread lightly here because for one if he wins by constant character assassination, he will have really really poor approval ratings in his term making the Republican party even more unpopular among most of America. Short term gain for long term disaster, I'm not sure they want to go there (It's weird isn't it? People give the lowest approval rating to a Republican President yet will vote Republican again and again out of fear). The way Bush won has left a dirty taste in American's mouths about the Republican party especially among the younger generation and they will pay for it in the future.

After the conventions I expect McCain to have a more positive campaign and leave the character assassination to the 527's. Either Obama has to link them to McCain or he has his own outside groups ready to pounce. We've seen the Obama brand as being mostly positive on t.v. ads while going sharply negative in isolated areas (the Ohio ad and the Nevada ad). Nate at 538.com seems to think that we will see more and more of those region oriented types of ads in the future. He keeps a positive national presence while going on the attack in specific spots. Think about it. If Obama went on the character attack nationally they will ask (Is this the kind of change he wants to bring? He's a typical politician, this shows it). So he does the attacking mostly locally but always on the issues, always.

2. The polls continue to show Obama leading by a few points. It's been that way since he won the nomination. Back in 2004 Bush was leading in many polls until Kerry picked his VP and had his convention and then they swung back to Bush again. People want to vote Democratic this year but they aren't sure if it's Obama yet. Obama will change that in the debates I think. Obama is a strong debater and while some say that since Obama and McCain will be sitting down in the debates that Obama's height strength will be negated, I tend to think it's not a problem at all and may actually be an advantage. Height didn't help Kerry all too much anyways. From watching Obama's debate performances, he actually does better IMO when he is sitting down. The camera's will be up closer as well so people can view the young charismatic Obama and then McCain, the antithesis. McCain has a tendency to slump over while sitting down also and has weird noise quirks when debating. Now I'm sure his handlers will train him not to do anything dumb, but imagine being 72 and having all those things going through your mind at once while you are sitting down next to a guy who is more intelligent than you, more youthful than you, and a guy that you've been smearing all along.

Just some thoughts..

Not to denigrate your other very thoughtful comments.