SurveyUSA Gives McCain 1 pt Lead in Virginia but says 14% of Blacks back McCain.

I find it hard to believe that 14% of Af Ams in Virginia back McCain:


Virginia Continues to Lay Out as Key Battleground State in 2008: In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia. McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 08/08/08 through 08/10/08. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. As evidence of Virginia's critical role in any 2008 victory, a number of the vice presidential running mates under consideration are from Virginia.

more at the link:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ff6d5cc4-2876-4894-8c86-7d8364057e52&c=77

Survey USA is dead wrong, only about 3-5% of blacks support McBush

The black vote isn't a monolith. Surprise!

and the Black vote is consistently overwhelmingly Democratic.

Obama is a Democrat. 90% of African Americans are Democrats, and so it follows that 14% is simply wrong and overstates Blacks supporting a Republican, period.

trying to say. That wouldn't make sense. They know better than most that McCain's judgment on war ain't all that.

My husband is black and is in the Virginia National Guard and just came back from a year in the Middle East and he's voting for McCain. As is the majority of the guys, both black and white, that he served with. Don't kid yourself into thinking that the military doesn't support the Republican candidate.

"I think this poll is overestimating those groups more simpathetic to McCain, Why? Well, in this SurveyUsa poll the bloc of those 65+ is 17%; however, in 2004 these lovely people were 10% of those voting. Why does this benefit McCain? Well, They are supporting McCain 58% vs. 37%, which is not a surprise since we know that the older the voter the least willing to vote for Obama.

SurveyUsa is also underestimating AA. In this poll AA make up 19%; however, they were 21% of those voting in 2004. Is it right to assume that AA will vote in lesser numbers this time around? I don't know you, but I really doubt it.

According to this SurveyUsa poll Obama has the edge among those who make less than $50,000, a category in which much minority people will fit. However, SurveyUsa is underepresenting this group, why? Well, in 2004 they were 39% of those voting, but SurveyUsa has this bloc at 27%."

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_virginia_8810.php

IF he's only down 1-point with their oversampling older voters and under sampling AA voters, he's going to win the state.

the GOP cheat factor into the equation especially since thanks to HAVA most of our votes will be registered on e voting machines with (partisan) source code. :mad:

such an extreme outlier is very surprising.

So 14% seems high to me.

Although Virginia should be called a tossup noway Mccain will get 14 percent of the Black Vote.
Many pollsters got the black vote wrong In the primary.Obama did better than they said he would.
Obama will get at least 90 percent of the black vote In every state.As was proved In Missouri
Survey USA Is not always right.

about Obama. :puke: Continual MSM BS day in and day out has the ability to affect all groups. That being said, the 14% number is bullshit. Mkkkain is batshit insane and won't do well with minorities (he didn't even support MLK day).

Honestly, all the latest polls either show Obama up 1 or McCain up 1. If it stays like this until November, VA could be the 2008 Florida.

Yeah, 14% of AA's is not gonna happen for McCain. I think Obama will get 93-95 % of AA's here.

Doable, but not probable.

it's possible. The DC Suburbs have increased so much in population and its very Dem. Plus, Obama is popular here.

and we all know how backwards SOME people think there

And not the brother of the candidate!!

Forget it.

Very popular former Dem Gov Mark Warner is on the ballot this Nov running for Senate and will win easily. This will give Obama a big boost in the voting booth. Many will show up to vote for Warner and will also vote for Obama and vice-versa. It will be a double synergistic feedback coat-tail effect! VA will go blue!

black electorate will come out to vote?

:shrug:

Whoops! Misread.

Our resources better off focused in midwest and not in southern states.