If intrade was to be believed, this is the map.

blue Ohio, blue New Mexico, and blue Colorado.

The bluer the better.


:thumbsup: :hi: :dem:

Agree with you -- Florida's a longer shot than some of the others. But I think Obama thinks it's worth the fight.

except I play around with VA cuz it's anyone's state at this point. Without VA, Obama still gets 298 EV's though.

It trails--not leads--the polls. It's good for knocking a bit of sense into people who think the unrealistic is likely, but it's not that useful for predictions.

What's on the bubble?

For Obama - Virginia (13), Nevada (5), and maybe one of PA/MI/OH (~20) for Obama. If Obama lost VA, NV and PA, he wins a squeaker (272)

For McCain - NC (15), FL (27), MO (11), IN (11), MT (3). If he loses all of these, Obama wins 378 - 160.

Right now we're on the 50 yardline. If Obama moves the ball down the field a little bit, he wins in a landslide. If McCain moves it downfield, there's a pretty good firewall (as we used to say back in the spring) for Obama.

When I checked intrade a couple of days ago, it looked like Obama's holding everything Kerry won with 70% chance of winning or more. He's also got >50% in several states that went to Bush and several more are in heavily play with between 30 and 50% chance.

but the rest of the map seems reasonable and will still give Obama 278 electoral votes.

...ties to all the job losses there.

According to David Plouffe and the AFLCIO, the "Job Killing John" ads are only the beginning and they plan to hit HARD in Ohio.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYLZ9NUMRNA

I say mcLAME narrowly loses Ohio. Especially after America see's the old man attempt to debate Senator Obama.

This Is very likely the map.Missouri and Indiana are still possabiltys for Obama,and has slime shots
at Montana,NC,and Florida.The only Kerry states I think Obama really has to fight In are Michigan,and
NH.SOrry but polls keep saying Obama Is In good shape In PA.Colorado,Nevada,and Virginia are going to
be close but Obama can win there.And Virginia Is slowly turning from a Southern state to a Midwestern
state.

things could get better.
or worse.

If you flip Ohio, Virginia and Colorado it's McCain (by 1)

Flip Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire and it's a tie. (Which is a win for Obama in the House of Representatives)

about how the map has changed over the past months. My guess is not all that much, but I could be wrong.

Siiiiiii!!!