Question about polls:

Why are all them showing Obama and McBush in such a close race. Are people actually VOTING for the Aged Idiot, or are the polls just skewed for show? :shrug:

I know I know--It's been asked too many times before and you're obviously sick of it. Sorry, my bad.

conspiratorial to understand it. Even if it didn't get them more viewers and money a blow out is simply boring.


Here are some facts.

1) Pollster.com uses all of the major polling firms and combines them for the following graph:



however when third party candidates are included (like a real ballot) a different picture emerges



While their has been some tightening it is happening at a time when McCain is spending huge amounts of money for media buys while Obama is hording his cash (except for Olympics and Florida buys) until Sept/Oct when it is going to have a much greater impact.

2) We don't have a national election - we have a national day of state by state, winner take all elections.

Everyday phrigndumass gives us an update on how the race is with the latest state by state polls.

It is not close



While it has tightened a bit McCain has big vulnterabilities in NC/FL/VA. He not only needs to win all of these he has to steal a bunch from Obama. Obama's states are very firm allowing him to poach more in red states.

3) Taking the combined state by state poll phrigndumass then adds together all of these polls for the most accurate possible national poll (because each state poll has about 1000 respondents while each national poll has about 1500 respondents). Currently Obama has the following lead:



4) Please note that Intrade, the most reliable predicter of elections still has Obama at 60% chance of winning.

5) All of the polls are based on certain assumptions on turnout.

Those turnouts are based primarily on turnouts in previous GE elections.

So what happens lets say in Texas if the AA increases their turnout by 10% and the Hispanic vote increases 15%?

Let's ask phrigndumass and here is what he says:

TEXAS ... I have Texas numbers.

Figuring in a 10% increase in African American voters, and a 15% increase in Latino voters, and a small 2% increase in white, non-Hispanic voters, we get the following turnout in Texas:

Projected turnout 2008 in Texas:
Black - 914,461
Latino - 1,440,557
White - 5,602,023
Other - 50,501
Total Votes 2008 - 8,007,542

Assume the following votes for Obama in Texas:
Black - 95%
Latino - 70%
White - 37.35%
Other - 70%

Obama wins Texas with 50.01% of the vote. If the white percentage is lower than 37.35% for Obama, Obama loses Texas.

Further, if the Latino vote is only 65% for Obama, then Obama must win at least 38.62% of the white vote to win Texas.

60% Latino for Obama = 39.91% of white vote for Obama to win Texas.

It's safe to say that if Obama wins 40% of the white vote in Texas, then Texas is a toss-up.



So all of the polling is showing Obama with a substantial lead - especially in the electoral college.

If the polling is modeling its conculsions on past turn out of minority voters then it is significantly undervaluing Obama's true strength. Looking closer at Texas it shows that Obama wins Texas with modest increases in minority votes and 40% of the white vote.

If we can build a reasonable scenario where Texas could go to Obama that means that we are looking at something more than a win.

Remember right now McCain has to spend all of his primary money before the convention and then after that he will have only $ 85 million for the GE. Obama is probably sitting on more than $ 125 million and will probably raise another $ 150 million for the GE.

It is not a slam dunk and we cannot slow down on the canvassing and volunteering but the overall picture remains very strong.