1. I can read that type of republican quite well. They are the one's
who have been directly hurt by Bush's blunders and insensitivities. I would bet that at least 5 million Republicans with gay family members will not vote for Mr. Bush this fall. That is why Chaney is Flip Flopping to appear like a easy going gay moderate, just like he did in 2000. He is not sincer.
Party Identification All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Democrat 39 % 86 % 11 % 0 % 2 % Republican 35 % 8 % 91 % 0 % 1 % Independent 27 % 45 % 47 % 1 % 6 %
What I would expect is a smaller defection among dems this time. The party is definetely more united. Assume a slightly higher number of republicans defecting. So, let's just switch the numbers.
Also expect Kerry to win among independants. Many polls I've seen has Kerry beating Bush by 7-10 points among independants.
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