Do Voters Like Joe Biden?

I think I've written extensively about just about all of the leading Democratic Vice Presidential contenders at some point, except Joe Biden, who at this point seems to be the favorite for the position. I like Joe Biden reasonably well personally; if I were trying to choose from among the VP candidates to support in a Democratic primary, he would be fairly high on the list. But I think the Democrats may be overstating his electoral appeal.

Rasmussen has conducted polling on Joe Biden at various times; I have included a recent poll where they took voters' temperatures on some of the potential VP contenders, as well as a poll toward the end of Biden's primary campaign, and then a baseline reading from 2006. In each case, Biden's favorables/unfavorables were pretty close to even:

VF = Very FavorableSF = Somewhat FavorableSU = Somewhat UnfavorableVU = Very UnfavorableDate VF + SF = Favorable SU + VU = Unfavorable7/27/08 12 + 23 = 35 17 + 17 = 3412/9/07 10 + 28 = 38 21 + 16 = 3711/11/06 10 + 23 = 33 21 + 15 = 36

These are not terrific ratings, and they get a little bit worse when you look at the depth of the sentiments, as Biden's strong unfavorables exceed his strong favorables by 5-7 points. Basically, I think he is identified enough with the (unpopular) institution of the Congress that he will be viewed by a lot of people as a partisan, but doesn't compensate for that by generating enthusiastic responses from the base, the way some other candidates might. Biden is fairly well-known -- by far the best know candidate of the Bayh/Biden/Kaine/Sebelius group -- so perceptions of him are liable to be fairly entrenched, and may not be enhanced by the fluffy sort of treatment that the VP candidate usually tends to get from the press.

There are some positives, though. Biden's numbers are quite strong among seniors, a group with whom Obama is underperforming, and fairly strong among moderates. He would probably lock up Pennsylvania for Obama -- both because he is well-known in the Philly burbs and because Pennsylvania has an older electorate -- and might play well somewhere like Florida. (I don't think he'd perform as strongly in states like Colorado and Wisconsin, which are a bit younger and tend not to like the Washington establishment).

I understand that there is more to picking a VP than favorable/unfavorable ratings -- elections aren't won by out-nicing the other ticket. There is no doubt that Biden would perform well on the talk show circuit, and that he'd assuage the concerns of a certain number of older, foreign-policy-focused voters. That might be enough to make him a worthy choice. But I don't think he'd quite as appealing to the electorate as the conventional wisdom seems to hold.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/do-voters-like-joe-biden.html

(I personally like Joe)

and was also my first choice.

I mean, just look at your numbers. Neither of them is really high, meaning that a lot of people have no idea who he is. I think if they sell him as a "real" straight talker as opposed to "phony" straight talker John McCain, he could be huge.

a shot Bush took at Obama.

in which a politician literally calling "bullshit" will be a huge plus.

How many voted for him in the primaries?

...DROPPING OUT AFTER THE FIRST PRIMARY is also a good rule of thumb! Obviously, if people liked him, more would have voted for him and he wouldn't have had to drop out. You only drop out if you don't get the votes to stay in.

Having said that, I do like him and he is my second choice after Hillary. I do dread the "my friend John McCain" which we will hear incessantly. Maybe the democratic stragedy is to kill him (McCain) with kindness!

where the turnout was over 2x the turnout from 2004. Obama/Clinton were absolute rock stars taking over Iowa and the Youth vote (don't get me wrong...I'm very happy with the end result of Iowa and the primary process) and Biden/Dodd/Richardson just could NOT compete. People of Iowa liked Biden - he was the first choice of many regular caucus-goers (but not of the overwhelming amount of first-time caucus attendees who got involved solely because of Barack Obama).

I understand your point - I hope you understand mine. Biden's leaving the race wasn't because he wasn't liked - it was more that this cycle was beyond anything anyone had seen before, and the only one prepared to take it all the way to Denver was obviously Sen. Obama.

No.

:shrug:

is and do better than Kerry in Colorado as long as Hillary isn't the pick.

Bottom Line is, Biden is safe pick. That will help more than hurt

I called him right after Joe Biden stopped at my porch and gave me a hug during his trek through a community parade in Wilmington. My stepfather has already stated he'll come down next year so he can meet the guy (Joe does this parade every year).

Oh and my stepfather - NRA republican (who is thinking of going Obama)

And that would be a helpful thing for the ticket. I'm still a Clark man, however. Still, I would wholeheartedly support an Obama/Biden ticket.

a variety of opinions about what he would bring to the ticket as a VP candidate. For the record I am not a Biden fan.

However, the average apolitical person - who is still barely paying attention to the Presidential race- has no idea who Joe Biden is, has probably never even heard of him, and is not going to vote based on who the VP is anyway.

other than to maybe recognize his name. I don't think we should confuse what we here at DU know about people and issues with what your average person on the street knows. I think most of them do lead lives of quiet desperation. They may have strong opinions on an issue or two, and have strong positive or negative opinions about certain people, but other than that a lot of their knowledge is shallow. Many of them simply don't believe their vote makes any difference, otherwise voter turnout for a presidential election (which usually is highest) would be 80% or more.