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SurveyUSA: Obama up 2 in Minnesota

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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:29 PM
Original message
SurveyUSA: Obama up 2 in Minnesota
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3af2463a-4cc8-4435-989f-3ea28464ab49

Men: McCain 48-45
Women: Obama 50-41

for more crosstabs, go to the link

I'm happy Obama is leading here, but the Repubs have their convention here, so Obama should watch this state carefully. If we lose Minnesota, Obama HAS to win Ohio, which looks 50\50 at this point. Oh and watch out for Pawlenty.

I hope the Dem convention boosts our lead up here back to large margins.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. Let me be the first to note how odd it is that Minnesota has so many men
Edited on Tue Aug-19-08 12:31 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
Shouldn't Men: McCain 48-45 Women: Obama 50-41 result in something like Obama by 6, rather than 2?
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. On further examination, it may be a typo in the OP (?)
Edited on Tue Aug-19-08 12:40 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
The figures at the link are:

Women: Obama 50% McCain 45%

Men: McCain 48% Obama 41%

That makes a little more sense.
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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. huh? no it's not
Edited on Tue Aug-19-08 12:40 PM by darius15
where did you get those figures?
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I followed your link.
Edited on Tue Aug-19-08 12:44 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
I'm not trying to make trouble. That's what the chart at your link says under gender (first green column)

Transposing the second digit of the two male numbers would do that. (1 and 5) And the figures in the chart add up better to the headline result of Obama by 2.

If I'm mistaken I apologize, but I thnks it's just a typo. No biggie.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. I think the OP's right. Which again raises the question, is 50%/50% men vs. women split accurate?
I doubt it.

These pollsters aren't consistent at all.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Whats more bizarre is that Obama leads the 50+ and 65+ age groups
But trails with the 35-49 group.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. Again..likely voters. Chuck Todd said registered voter polls are more reliable
at this point. Obama will not lose Minnesota to McCain.
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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. It is not as safe as you think
I'd say Obama is up by around 4 percent in MN, and Republicans have their convention here. It can be really close.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. It might be close but I still think Obama will win it. nt
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
5. So there are more men in Minnesota than women?
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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. the crosstabs show that they polled it
50% men 50% women
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. If its 50-50 then the Margin has to be 3 points, unless they polled bigfoot
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. Yeah, looks like McCain got a rounding break in there somewhere
The real number is something like: Obama 47.45 McCain 44.55
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. not that I've noticed
and my social life does not reflect this as fact.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
12. Obama is leading the 65+ category and trails in the 35-49?
:wow:
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. 35-49 is always a very republican segment of the population
Edited on Tue Aug-19-08 12:49 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
That when people pay the most in taxes, have children at home, etc.

When they get a little older healthcare and SS push them back towards Dems.
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