PA POLL: Obama 46, McCurmudgeon 41. Lead expands to 44/38 with Nader and Barr included.

Following are the key findings from the poll:

• In the PA presidential race, Barack Obama still holds a narrow lead over John McCain, with 46% supporting Obama to 41% for McCain; 10% remain undecided with 3% saying they would vote for neither or vote for another candidate. This includes 30% who are “definitely” voting for McCain and 37% “definitely” voting for Obama. This poll shows no movement from Obama’s narrow 46/39 lead in May, which means Obama has gotten no positive “bounce” since officially clinching the nomination battle over Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier this year. In a close contest however, Obama’s lead on intensity with a higher percentage of “definite” support could be the deciding factor that puts him over the top because it means his base is more solidified and his troops more energized than those of McCain.

• From a regional standpoint, Obama continues to hold relatively stable leads over McCain in Philadelphia (67/21), the suburban Southeast counties Chester, Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery (50/33), Allegheny County (56/37) and the Northwest/Erie market (46/36). Obama also holds a narrow 47/43 lead in the Northeast/Wilkes-Barre/Scranton market, which is really a statistical toss-up within the poll’s margin of error; the candidates were also virtually tied in this region in May. Obama also leads with Democrats (73/16), Independents (48/25), females (48/38), 18-29 year- olds (75/21), 30-44 year-olds (45/38) and 45-59 year-olds (49/37), African-Americans (98/0), those with a college degree or higher level of education (50/35) and high-income households (50/44).

• From a regional standpoint, McCain continues to lead Obama in the Southwest/Pittsburgh media market excluding Allegheny County (50/32), “T”/Central/Johnstown/Altoona media market (52/38) and South Central/Harrisburg media market (53/33). McCain’s current 18-point lead over Obama in the Southwest represents a widening margin in comparison to May when he led more narrowly by 11 points, or 45/34. This supports our conclusion from May that McCain’s key to winning the state may rest with this socially-conservative region where white working-class voters have strong appeal to his message despite the fact that this region is registered mainly Democratic. In addition, McCain’s leads in the Republican-leaning “T”/Central and South Central/Harrisburg regions also shows an increase in support from May, up from his 42/39 and 48/36 leads in these regions respectively. This suggests Republicans are “coming home” to the presumptive nominee. McCain also leads with senior citizens 60 years old and older (50/37), which are usually considered the age group most likely to vote, and also leads with white voters without college degrees (50/36).

• Both McCain and Obama have virtually the same ratios in hard name ID and are liked nearly equally by the voters. For Obama, he is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion; 22% have no opinion of him. For McCain, 44% view him favorably, compared to 34% who view him unfavorably and 22% who have no opinion. This again reflects the closeness of the race since neither candidate has succeeded in developing a positive image that is head-and-shoulders above the other.

• In a separate match-up of candidates with Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr in the race, Obama leads McCain 44/38, with Nader at 3% and Barr at 2%; 10% remain undecided. Given the fact that the race is closest in a 2-person match-up without the third-party candidates, Barr’s presence on the ballot could be a deciding factor that siphons away critical support from McCain. This is particularly important in the conservative South Central/Harrisburg region, where Barr is polling at 5%, which is an area McCain needs a huge margin of support in to help offset Obama’s big vote margins in Southeastern PA including Philadelphia where collectively more than 1 in 3 votes are cast in a PA statewide election.

<SNIP>

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq_Presidential_August2008.pdf

Hell, Kerry won PA without Chester.

Obama will win PA.

Obama is up 67-21 in Philly (Kerry won 80-19)

Yet, Obama is winning AA's 98-0.

Older individuals and homeowners are going to be overrepresented.

I think Obama wins PA barring some extreme development.

I think it'd be a hoot if Bob got a few bucks to buy TV time and make some noise in a few states Gramps doesn't think he's in trouble in...Georgia, Texas, Nebraska and Arizona...sorta help along the "Nader affect" I see Bob having in some of these states...where a 5% shift away from Gramps to Barr would turn what should never have been a close election into an Obama rout.

If Barr's candidacy is elevated, it gives the option to the GOOPers who right now feel they have no alternative to Gramps (just can't get over their inner racism to vote for the "colored fella").

that those blue-collar folk can't relate too...isn't that what the refrain was here a few months ago?