Remember the burning question from the first half of this year: Can Obama beat McCain? Here is the national average:
McCain has been playing catch up, and people are following every little blip in the polls as if they're going to decide the winner. Yesterday it was the LA Times poll:
Note that when this poll had Obama up by 12 in June, it was dismissed as an outlier along with the equally volatile Newsweek poll. Today's numbers are consistent what other polls show (see rest of post.) According to the news article, Obama still benefits from increased D enthusiasm. The
LA Times version speculates on McCain negative attacks because Obama's fav/unfav now resemble McCain's. OTOH,
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Bottom line is that, like in other polls, the GOP base has consolidated while the Dem base, while more enthusiastic, has not. Obama has room to move up, but it'll take work to get there. And then there are the conventions, which, based on these numbers, come at the right time for Obama. How much upward room there is for McCain remains unclear, based on what is a poor showing amongst indies (Obama favored by 11) and the stated 9 in 10 GOP voters picking McCain. In all the polls, base support is a major difference between the candidates, though I haven't seen the cross-tabs or the exact figures (or the party ID numbers, for that matter.) But if indies favor Obama by that much, he's in decent shape.
Quinnipiac Likely Voters (July) MoE +/- 2.5
Obama 47 (50)
McCain 42 (37)
linkPeople spent the first part of the year assuming Obama was no match for McCain, now they're wondering why he can't "close the deal."
Obama can't be, and by most indications isn't being, complacent. He's running a smart campaign. McCain, the supposedly strong and experienced candidate, is playing catch up. What the hell is he doing wrong?