Zogby poll puts McCain at +5%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26308429/

Luckily though, this is Zogby's poll of "likely" voters. I don't have the experience to do it, but hopefully someone here has the information on how they determine that category.

My understanding is that it is a subset of registered voters that voted in the previous election, so it completely ignores new registrations.

There isn't enough information in the article to track whether the earlier polls that are being compared were also "likely" voters.


Down to the bottom line, though, I hope reports and information like this, keep us from getting lazy and complacent. We need to keep working all the way through to November.

The OP is a relative newbie to DU. Cut him some slack, would ya? :hi:

then again, DUers dupe threads all teh time.

But hit the Alert link if you feel the OP is inappropriate, and the mods will combine duplicate threads as they deem necessary.

Flaming newbies (or anyone else) for minor transgressions like this doesn't encourage discussion, and that's why we're here, right?

Last week my husband hands me the phone and asks if I want to be polled by Zogby. Of course I jumped at the chance. A woman asked all the usual questions about who, how strong my support, etc. I was wondering when I would hear the results. Also, I live in Sarasota FL a pretty repub area--so I wonder if other calls were made in my area which may skew the results. I am rather disappointed that Barack did not do better.

Thank you for posting this, although I think the results of this poll would clearly qualify as an outlier compared to the vast majority of data compiled by other pollsters. I wouldn't give this poll too much credit or worry too much about it.

Welcome to DU. :hi:

I just crawled out of bed a half hour ago.

Some are as simple as "did you vote in 2004?" but that level of blunt simplicity is kind of rare today.

Most Likely models, particularly today, are more complex. Lots of people claim to have voted before because not voting is stigmatized. So some pollsters will try to see if people REALLY voted. For instance, people might be asked the specific location of where they last voted. (i.e. Tom Landry Middle School in Arlen Texas)

Modern likely voter models try to include the newly registered, but do apply a tighter screen to them on factors like stated certainty since there's no previous-voting-behavior screen to fall back on.

(I know nothing about Zogby's particular methodology in this poll. My comments are general.)

same poll (likely voters) a month ago. I want to deny it but he is sinking fast. IT all started with his overseas trip. Before that John McCain was hurting bad. One look at real clear politics with McCain leading in most of the battleground states shows you that the tide has changed. Before Obama led in every single one. For the first time ever I'm starting to believe that Obama won't win this thing. It pisses me off so much that the Republicans win every time. I'm sick of it. Damn it! Ugh.

who is drawing lots of new voters.

When Obama was ahead in this poll, he was most likely even further ahead in real life.

Also, this poll was conducted during a period of time when Obama was on vacation and under the radar screen, while McCain was strutting for the cameras and spouting off about Georgia.

I'm not worried. Not about the polls, anyway. I think Obama's support is solid -- if the voting is conducted fairly.

It is getting too close to the election. Once people make up their mind about Obama it will be hard to change it. The one that really gets me is that they see him as better on the economy. If that continues Obama can't win. He can't win if he loses every issue across the board. The media will be all over Obama today about the polls. First yesterday and now today. He is sinking like a rock. Obama better forget his timing and announce his vp soon so the media will stop talking about the polls. The really bad thing is that McCain has not even had his convention and he has momentum right now. I'm not sure if Obama will be able to halt his momentum or not because right after our convention John McCain will announce his running mate and have his convention. So then the talk will be all about John McCain. Hopefully, when people see Bush/Cheney at the convention it will scare the hell out of them.

just sayin.... you must be a piss poor chess player.

My apologies if it was a dupe. I did a search and got no results, at the time, for McCain Zogby, referencing this newest poll.

I'm also not panicking. I see this more as reinforcing that we have to work through to November and can never assume, even if the polls are moving in our direction, that this thing is won. Not until January 09.

=)