Obama is still a favorite to win, BTW - Democratic Underground

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Wed Aug-20-08 10:06 AM
Original message

Obama is still a favorite to win, BTW

Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 10:10 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter

All historical trends are still in place. Bush is still despised. The economy still sucks.

Kerry and Dukakis were supposed to lose given the big picture trends. Obama is supposed to win given the big picture trends.

One can note the reality that Obama is under-performing (even Chris Dodd would be up eight on McCain right now) without predicting doom. Denying the obvious is never good, but there are two sets of obvious that should both be acknowledged.

The trends still put a powerful wind at Obama's back; one of the strongest such trend environments we've ever seen.

And the guy with more money usually wins. This is America, after all.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:24 AM
Response to Original message

1. .

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PatSeg

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:34 AM
Response to Original message

2. Thanks for the sanity

I sense some panic "out there" today!

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azmouse

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:42 AM
Response to Original message

3. Unfortunately very few on DU seem to want to be positive today.

Everyone is too busy enjoying being Chicken Little.

I wish they'd just take a deep breath and realize the election isn't for several months yet
and a lot is going to happen before then.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #3

5. I am intensely critical of the Obama campaign

Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 11:56 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter

But I wanted to balance my criticisms with an acknowledgment that though I think the campaign sucks that doesn't necessarily equate with losing.

Some years the best campaign in the world wouldn't have won. (Jesus couldn't have won as a Democrat in 1984) Some years the worst campaign couldn't lose. (Carter was not a good national candidate at all, but 1976 was a really good Dem year)

And in terms of the broad environment, this year is more like 1976 than 1984.

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azmouse

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #5

6. I often see that some of the criticisms are just because

of a sense of desperation. As a country, we just can't take another Rep President and survive.

I suggest to all of those who are feeling that sense of desperation, turn it into action.
Get out and work for Obama or the Dem candidates in your area.
Action sure beats sitting around feeling anxious.

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blondeatlast

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Wed Aug-20-08 11:47 AM
Response to Original message

4. Sanity and observational wisdom have no place here.

How dare you invoke the trends of even races Democrats have actually won in recent history, you know, like that guy, what's his name, he even took Arizona in '92?

Silly Kurt_and_Hunter...

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