Electoral College Calculator - Or How To Torture Yourself With A Click !!!

Electoral College Calculator

Try your hand at predicting who will win the next presidential election. You can create your own results by clicking on a different button in one of three columns, Democrat (D), Republican (R), and Third Party (O).

After you have made your selections, click "Tally" to see your new results. Then click "Reset" to do it again!

Link: http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

I have Kerry @ 369, with Monkeyboy @ 149... but I suspect I was polling with my heart, LOL!!!

:shrug:

I was trying to find a list electoral votes per state in order of amount, instead of alphabetical. Anybody got a link???

:shrug:

;)

nt

:yourock:

There Electoral Vote Predictor has Bush: 9999 to Kerry: -5

Who would have thunk.
:silly:

THAT is the BIG ASSED FLY in the oinment, no???

:shrug:

I gave Bush AZ, FL, OH, IA, TN and CO out of the swing states.

K 278
B 260

And Kerry still wins. Awesome stuff.

...269 - 269. I kept getting this last week when trying to predict it. Very conceivable. And you know what happens if there's a tie in the Electoral College: the vote goes to the house.

Torture.

:silly:

I've been having nightmares ever since!

Is there an electoral situtation that would result in that? It would probably be crazy.

http://uselectionatlas.org/BLOG/index.php?p=72

It's scary how many different ways this can happen. He notes 14 different ways, and says there are probably others.

Take a look.

...just saw your post.

My head is spinning.

Please... no...

:hangover:

Are there state + state realistic combinations where this could occur in 2004?

I have the same question. I could probably get one if I played with it for a bit. But I'm too lazy. Eh, screw it, lemme at it.

And it's nothing outlandish (IE - texas doesnt go to kerry when he is trailing by double digits)

lemme get some time to post it

Electoral vote tied: 269-269

Repugs:
AL
AK
CO
FL
GA
ID
IN
IA
KS
KY
MS
MT
NE
NV
NM
NC
ND
OH
OK
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WV
WS
WY

Dems: The rest

Hmm. This sounds promising for Kerry (let me explain). In this possibility, Bush wins 11 toss-up states (out of about 14-16) and Bush still can only manage a tie. (Those states are AR, MI, MN, MO for Kerry) So if Kerry can take Florida and/or Ohio and keep those four other states, he'll win (not by a lot, but a win is a win). So I think this looks good for Kerry, because recent polls has him leading (though statistically tied) in 14-16 toss-up states.

"Today's map is probably giving Karl Rove nightmares. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. It could happen. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia."

:toast::hi::toast:

I don't know what mechanism we'd use to change it, but the Electoral College total should always be an odd number. 537, 539, but........ NO TIES!!!

:shrug:

Check out this webpage: http://uselectionatlas.org/BLOG/index.php?p=72

Whoever wins 3 of the 4 is the winner. If they split it will be another nailbiter.

...and nobody will see it, most likely, it being the middle of the night, but I'll post it anyway:

Not crazy at all, this scenario is scarily possible:

269 - 269

Electoral tie goes to the House of Reps, controlled by Republicans.



The scariest thing about this is that there are MORE combinations that could equal 269 - 269 that are highly probably, with battleground states switching sides.

(1) WV going Republican, but Nevada going Dem... both have 5 electoral votes.

(2) Missouri or Tennessee (both 11) going Dem, Maine (4) and Oregon or Iowa (both 7) going Rep. (less likely, I'd think)

I have no hair left.

and I gave Bush Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and even Iowa, just to be careful.

Census adjustments aside (Bush 278 last time indexed for growth), Bush and the GOP in general can only loose mostly. Perhaps with moderate Democrats on the ticket (like this time)Bush might have a shot at Wisconsin , Minnensota , and Iowa. But thats a small chance.

Bush will loose New Hampshire. If we had nominated a progressive Democrat (NO DEAN ISNT who Im talking about for the trillionth time, he would be even worse than Kerry)then Arizona and Nevada would be in the bag plus Texas would come our way in a few years.West Virginia would certainly be ours with a progressive ticket.

But taking the situation as it is on the ground today (stuck with the ticket we have)Bush will loose New Hampshire and after that he cant afford to loose a single state aside from tiny ones like West Virginia . He is running even or slightly behind in Ohio , Florida, and Missouri. Even though Kerry clearly gave Bush a shot at a few northern progressive states like Minnensota by picking Edwards , Bush loosing either Ohio or Florida will bury him no matter what.

Bush just cant eek it out this time. I cant see him winning narrow victorys in all 3 states he needs (Florida , Ohio , Missouri) like last time.He could barely win Missouri. He could eek out another hairline win in Florida but it never hapens twice. Perhaps the Youngstin Democratic mayor's endorcment of Bush is a sign that the populist Democrats in economicaly devastated areas could have a bad taste in their mouths with the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Too much going against Bush even though Kerry gave some real openings to him by picking Edwards.

Edit: forgot my numbers...........best case scenario for Bush 269-269 loosing West Virginia and New Hampshire but taking every other state he won in 2000 , or only loosing NH. Unlikly as the law of averages suggests that when you are running no better than 50-50 in 3 hotly contested states (Missouri , Florida , and Ohio), 2 heavy unionized states, you just cant win narrowly in all 3. At least one he will loose narrowly and thus all is lost for the GOP

:kick:

Hope ya had fun with it.

:kick:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc.php?year=2004

http://www.opinionjournal.com (on left side of page)