The good & bad with Romney, Huckabee and Pawlenty.

Let's start with the favored, Romney.

Mitt Romney will help shore up his economic cred, but I'm not sure by how much. He'll help in Michigan, where the Romney name is still respected, and should have impact in two huge key swing states, Colorado and Nevada. Moreso in Nevada, where there is a large LDS population and I believe if Romney were on the ticket, it would be very hard for Obama to pull out Nevada. He may also be the difference in Colorado.

Of course, Romney will also hurt McCain in the south, namely Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and maybe even South Carolina. The extent of how much he hurts will vary from state to state, but I think the largest impact will be felt in Georgia and it may be enough to flip it to Obama, who generally trails by 7 or so points there.

Romney's major problem, though, is the fact he isn't a strong debater. He pretty much had one good debate during the Republican primary and while it would have been less of an issue if he were going up against Bayh or Kaine, this becomes a bigger issue with Biden on the ticket. Biden would ruin Romney and that in turn could ruin McCain's chances.

Looking at the electoral map with a McCain-Romney ticket, I see them being stronger in the west than McCain has been on his own, but weaker in the south. My problem with Romney is that I think he makes it easier for McCain to win Michigan, Colorado and Nevada than he does for Obama to win Georgia. If that is the electoral map we're looking at, Obama will need to win both Ohio and Florida. As even Ohio + Virginia does not net Obama the 270 needed to claim victory. Romney on McCain's ticket could also help kill any chance Obama had in Alaska, Montana and the Dakotas, though I think it's unlikely he wins any of those states regardless.

Tim Pawlenty seems be the other top candidate.

Pawlenty will really help with social conservatives as it seems like he's supported more than Romney. He also might help in Minnesota, though I'm not sure he's good enough to flip the state. While he does makes it easier for social conservatives to embrace the McCain-Pawlenty ticket, what impact will it have outside of the south?

That's Pawlenty's problem, as he doesn't really seem to be the type that will bring a ton of electoral votes. Ok, he might be able to make Minnesota competitive, but I think Obama generally leads there by a solid margin, which means it will be extremely difficult. His midwest background could help in Iowa, but that seems to be unlikely and he probably has no relevance in the west like Romney. The pluses, though, like Romney, is that he could help with the economy, but he doesn't seem to be like the type of guy who will dominate a debate.

The last real contender seems to be Mike Huckabee and he probably has the biggest mixed bag of any of the three.

Huckabee will be a huge boost for McCain in the south, probably doing just enough to put Georgia out of reach and maybe even Virginia and North Carolina. However, Huckabee will have little play outside of the south, especially the further west you go. In the west, I could see Huckabee actually being a bigger negative regionally than Romney would be in the south. I say this because Huckabee is despised by Mormons over some of the comments he made toward Romney in the primary. if Huckabee is on the McCain ticket, moderate Mormons, who make up a good number of the Nevada and Colorado population, would not vote for that ticket. They would either vote Obama, or sit out entirely. Basically, it's the reverse of what we would see with Romney. If that happens, Obama wins Colorado, Nevada, performs better than expected in Utah and Idaho and maybe picks off one of the four: Alaska, Montana, North/South Dakota.

I know a lot of people here believe Romney could easily be defeated, but he'll do extremely well in the west, where there is a growing Mormon population. Mormons like Romney and they want to see a Mormon close to the presidency, if that means voting for McCain to get Romney that much closer, they will do it. So for all the hope of Romney being on the ticket, I'd much rather see McCain pick Pawlenty, because I could realistically see Romney being the difference in Colorado and Nevada, though I will concede he probably won't turn Michigan blue. If that is the case, Obama still has an advantage as I think he'll take Iowa, but his path to 270 becomes far more narrower than it would if McCain were to choose Huckabee or Pawlenty.

My guess, McCain avoids Romney because there is a big risk of losing the base, even though he could probably compensate that with his strong support in the west. That means it's down to Huckabee and Pawlenty.

would voters want either Huckabee or Palenty to be President if 72 year old McCain doesn't finish out his term for whatever reason?

Neither of them or Romney for that matter has what it takes to be President IMO.

But this is about regional politics now and frankly, Romney gets a huge boost in some key western states because of his Mormonism, just as Biden may in places like Ohio and PA because of his Catholicism.

In the end, I don't think any of these three are a game changer, but I think Huckabee is stronger than Pawlenty and Romney is stronger than them both.

balanced in relation to Romney, which people here in DU are having a hard time with.

IMO, Romney stands a cut above and Pawlenty is just another in an endless string of backbenchers.

I think McCain is sick thinking about making this pick, knowing he HAS to take Romney, but with an ego that is doing everything it can to keep him from doing so.

I don't think the Mormon impact will be that big. There are a lot of Mormons in New Mexico too. I think more in New Mexico than Colorado though towns like Cortez and Grand Junction probably have a fair number.

What about Florida? There are a lot of Fundies there too and that state will be close.

In fact, Mormons outside of Utah have a history of supporting Democratic causes. It's the Mormons in Utah and Idaho that are far-right, but in other states, especially Nevada, they tend to be more moderate.

Which explains Harry Reid.

Seems every practicing Mormon I have ever met was a staunch Republican and I have met a lot of them. My Dad's side of the Family is Mormon from Southern Utah and we have Mormon relatives in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho and a few other states. I have a few Jack Mormon relatives in Salt Lake who are radically liberal. I use to date a Mormon from Logan, UT who moved to Salem, Oregon and is very liberal and not much into the Mormon religion any more. She would never be swayed by Romney being Mormon. Obama all the way for her.

Nevada, Colorado and California Mormons tend to be more liberal, or at least more moderate.

I personally know of a handfull of strict LDS voters who have never voted DEM, but will ONLY vote McCain if he picks Romney.

They absolutely feel slighted by the GOP primary. They've never felt outside of the Republican party till this year.

as EJ Dionne very accurately called them after the '06 elections-they are the party of the South

Obama. I think he is a risky pick because of the Mormon thing. They better really crunch their numbers before they pick him. It could totally backfire.

The "Saddleback" crowd will NOT vote for him, they don't really like McCain to start with.

but I'm not so sure the Romney name is as respected in Michigan as some think. Until Mitt had run for President, I had never heard of the Romney name. His father seems to have been well liked but that was 40 years ago. I don't think Mitt Romney has even lived here in 40 years. Mitt only got 39% in the primary (61% voted for someone else). Mitt's older brother couldn't even get the Republican nomination for Michigan's Attorney General in 1998. And Mitt's former sister in law (who kept the Romney name) lost the the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 1994 and then lost to Carl Levin for U.S. Senate in the general election by almost 20% in 1996. I guess Romney could help by a percent or so but I don't see how having him as VP will help win Michigan for McCain.

I'm kind of curious to see whether he makes a complete bozo pick. He and his campaign seem to have just enough tone-deafness and poor strategic and personal judgment to pick someone they think America will love, but really will just look like a clown.

Living in Iowa, Pawlenty will not help much at all here. 90% of people don't know who he is, and the rest know that he's had two collapsing bridges in the Twin Cities, and generally is doing pitiful all around. Anyways, Obama is very well liked here, being from neighboring Illinois and having a good image.

I think Minnesota would not turn red because of Pawlenty. It might be closer than with Romney, Huckabee, Lieberman, etc., but I don't think Pawlenty will be a help to the GOP.

I think Huckabee would hurt us the most, because it boosts the GOP base. However, Huckabee does not particularly like McPain, and may not to be on the sinking ship with McLame.