Thank you David Plouffe: "NATIONAL POLLS DON'T MATTER"

DENVER -- David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the pinnacle of the Democratic Party, did not look today like a fellow under duress because of the recent spate of national polls showing his candidate losing much of the advantage he's enjoyed over John McCain.

That's because, to hear him tell it (as he did at a press briefing), he all but ignores the surveys that tend to stir much interest among others.

"We don't pay attention to national polls," he said, referring to himself and the rest of the Obama team charged with winning the 270 electoral votes -- accrued through 51 separate contests in the states and the District of Columbia -- to win the White House.

Instead, as Plouffe reviewed the status of the race, he said he and his colleagues concentrate on other matters. Such as, most importantly, the undecided voters in the 18 states they see as the campaign's key battlegrounds and -- in those locales and elsewhere -- efforts to spur turnout of Obama supporters.

"We stay laser-focused on these two factors each and every day," he said.

The obsession on turnout is a key reason he turns a blind eye to the national polls -- and remains pretty positive in his assessment of the race, handwringing among some Democrats notwithstanding. .

Pollsters generally base their sampling group on past voting patterns. But the electorate in 2008, Plouffe said flatly, "is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/david-plouffe-k.html

we hope our field operation pulls our fat out of the fire.

Real inspiring.

join the party or go find some other board to grunt on. :wtf:

David Plouffe and Team Obama got us this far with their intelligence and you're sounding stupid.

You don't win the Iowa caucus and the general election the same way.

the old way you seem to espouse did NOT. Their ground game was ON in States that had caucuses and States that had primaries. The same teams on the ground then are already situated and doing the job that needs doing.

A ground game means feet on the ground, teams in key cities in key states, volunteers, adding new registered voters, all those things. That kind of "ground game", the one the Obama campaign is running, WINS elections.

Once Clinton got her ground game going, he more than held her own in states like PA and OH.

and the old way used by others in the campaign did not. Recognizing the brilliance of the Obama ground game too late is what caused the loss for your primary candidate as you have stated above, I agree with you on that.

ground game only works on a certain scale. In a 250,000 vote race, sure it can make a difference.

It hasn't shown an ability to make a difference in a 3 Million vote race.

hasn't been done in a long time, if ever, so I am not sure how you can say "It hasn't shown an ability to make a difference..."

We only have the primary results with which to judge, imo, and that was a smashing success.

never been tried before.

Tell me, would you allow your family to ride across the country in an airplane that had never flown more than 100 yards before?

She assumed much, ventured little, and was rewarded accordingly.

but it was still there and heavily funded.

She ran a TERRIBLE Iowa campaign.

It is won by going voter to voter and making your case. It is all about organization and community effort. The biggest problem we have had with national elections in recent years is the divide between people and the lack of commitment to agendas which really impact all people and not only the state you live in. Local initiatives and candidates are fine to focus on but we need a vision and a plan for the nation as a whole and someone who can get us all on the same page. I'll take my Iowa caucus system every time because I know I can trust my fellow citizens here to demand honest answers and results from its candidates and elected officials.

certain that the groundwork gets done. So quit dissing caucuses and learn the work of being a citizen.

Not exactly worried.

In other words, doing well enough to win more often than losing in the swing states. In the solid blue states, it doesn't matter how much you win by (other than down-ticket considerations), and in the solid red states it doesn't matter how much you lose by (although it's nice if you can make McCain waste money in them).

This is just like the primaries - you win by getting the most delegates, picking districts with 3 votes where you might snag 2 instead of 1-1 districts.

Ground game and excellent tactics are worth a lot. The Democratic candidate hasn't had these in a while.

:toast:

:toast: B-)

:beer:

you're a retired Fireman, yeah? Born in '44, meself, but always gonna be young at heart:)

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/07/10/mccain.insurance.question.cnn

ya gatta see this one ....too funny

with that question and that idiot is running for President of the United STates. I know bush set the bar low for repukes but..

:toast:

Your negativity does nothing but piss people off. If that's what you're looking for, just admit it and let them ban you. If not, I suggest getting some fresh air and playing with some puppies or kittens.

in 2008 and so polls which rely on past elections don't matter as much.

And often dismissed state polls.

How'd that work out for him?

Ha! Thank you for playing, we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

it's the "ground game" that is going to win it. He proved it during the primaries and, yet, the peacocks still pretend they don't get it, pretty telling, imo.

The reality is they DO get it, they just don't want to accept it because it makes all their usual tools useless, totally useless.

It IS the GROUND GAME that will win this for the Obama/Biden ticket IN SPITE of the Corporate peacocks' attempts to say otherwise.

I love David Plouffe, he IS confident and has every reason to be, imo.

in the media in 2000 and 2004, when it was the Bush crew doing it. ALL we heard in the media was the republican get out the vote machine.

I have YET, I mean not a freakin ONCE heard the national media report on BO's SUBSTANCIAL advantage vs McCain in this regard. Not a single word.

Part of the whole package, McCain, frankly, is too set in his ways to bother himself with it, and is all in with a negative media campaign, which the media is complicit with.

I don't like the feeling I am getting - if it were today, I think BO would win clearly, but the media has two and half more months, and they cut BO down A LOT in less than two months.

and they are NOT watching the 24/7 talking heads on CNN, MSNBC, Faux, etc. They are, however, in the midst of getting their kids ready for school, getting ready for winter. In getting ready for all that fall and winter brings, they are shopping for those necessities, out in their communities, the same communities the Obama volunteers are in with booths to register voters, share info re Obama, etc.

Most Americans catch their national/local news at dinner time or, possibly, before bed. Those newscasts spend, overall, little time on the election versus covering all the stories they feel need to be covered.

Obama's campaign has some very smart people.

I admit I get so nervous when I think McCain may win.

A friend of my husband emailed yesterday asking who I'd vote for.

I told him that, like him, I'd voted for Hillary in the primary, but I'll vote for a yellow dog before I vote Repub or Independent.

I told him that I thought Joe Biden was a Dem in Hillary's mold and will have a lot of influence.

I also told him I thought Obama will be a great President.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Obama 273 McCain 252 Ties 13

and figure out a way to make the numbers work for them

Only the state by state approach has any validity at all.

And in the state by state approach, a 4% overall lead nationwide is a 100 electoral vote victory.

My friends, John McCain is only winning in about 15 states with under 200 electoral votes.

In the electoral system we have, polling in the states gives a more accurate picture. Although, I myself, don't think we'll get a real clue of how the campaign is going until October because of last minute decision-making by fence straddlers.

All the dairy trackers are just that, little snapshots.





Obama comes back from Europe.

McCain attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama goes on vacation.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama perpares for VP announcement.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Biden announced as Obama VP pick.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama says McCain has 7 houses. Polls move back to Obama in lead.

Obama now leads by 3 in Zogby poll.

Obama now up by 4 pts in Diageo/Hotline poll.

over time.

McLoser ain't got shit in his wallet...money yes but what else? Its all a Scam. He is saying anything and offering everything but not saying how he will pay for all those giveaways...all he knows is tax cuts and War...whad a dufus...

after the Biden pick and now the start of the convention? Instead things are going in the opposite direction. I don't know about anyone else but these polls are troubling to me.

and party disunity then maybe there would be one.

I honestly hope you guys never wager on anything, if you actually fall for this nonsense.

I won a 16-man election pool twice for big money against very sharp guys by laser scrutiny of national polls and how the individual states would naturally fall in line, based on their historical tendencies and some logical current adjustments. In 6 outings the worst I've ever managed was 4th. And the only reason I dropped a bit was I was so cocky I spilled my strategy to a couple of the guys after winning twice.

So go ahead and desperately grasp this state-poll-only crap, with no background except something you want to believe. :rofl:

Let's see, I remember similar on this site in 2004. No one cared about our national standing, it was all Ohio and Florida. Meanwhile, I warned many times that Ohio figured to virtually mirror the national vote and we were playing with fire trying to win Ohio if we lost the national by several points. Sure enough, we lost nationally by 2.5 points and Ohio slipped away.

Newsflash: if we had fared better nationally, Ohio would have been dragged along, the 118,000 deficit easily overcome.

Let me guess again, you want to focus on theft, we really won Ohio, blah blah blah. That's the automatic response from simpleton losers.

I know guys here in Las Vegas who will wager massive amounts that the popular vote winner also carries the electoral college. You've got to be a rank idiot to defy mathematical probability and predict a split.

So go ahead and pretend all you want. Obama cannot escape numerical realities. Nor can McCain. If they carry the nation the vital states follow.

For one thing, the swing states match the nation in partisan breakdown. The nation is basically 21% liberal, 32% conservative. Check the swing states like Ohio. The partisan liberal/conservative breakdown is virtually identical. It's laughable to expect the nation to react one way and individual states to skew otherwise, when the foundational numbers mirror each other.

States like Virginia and Colorado have slightly higher percentage of conservatives than the nation as a whole, not less. You're not going to carry those states while losing nationally. Dream on.

In the primaries the state polls are more significant than national. But I think in 2008 we're more comfy than we should be in dismissing national polls, because of the recent primary example. Mark Penn made tons of mistakes but 2008 was the most bizarre example of early primaries not following the national polls. I'm sure he's somewhat stunned that it happened. But you never want to rely on the exception and not the rule. That's fools paradise.

Give me the ongoing national edge and the state polls can say anything they want.

BTW, weeks ago there were many posters here asserting we would win Indiana, based on glorious current state polls. LOL. I was insisting sharp guys were going to pound the betting line on Indiana toward the GOP once Bayh was bypassed as VP, since state polls means squat compared to Indiana's historical standing of 42% conservative and double digits red on the presidential level. Well what do you know? The trading price on Indiana has skyrocketed from 55% GOP at one point to 77% today. Thank you very much. Plenty of that is in my pocket. And for reference purposes it's the equivalent of going from a 1 point favorite in a football game to 8 point favorite. That's not an exaggeration. It's based on money line equivalency.