Kerry's got it in the bag....here's how...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10587568%255E28737,00.html

Certainly Bush will want to emphasise his performance as a wartime leader by referring to the September 11 attacks, but Republicans must be careful not to be seen to be exploiting the event.

Kerry's experience is illuminating. Formally accepting his party's nomination, Kerry stressed his combat service during the Vietnam War as one of the reasons he is equipped to be commander-in-chief. This is in contrast to Bush, who did not go to Vietnam and who has had to defend himself against allegations he did not even meet all attendance requirements of the Texas Air National Guard he joined instead.

But Kerry appears to have overplayed his hand, with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a group of bitter veterans who charge that Kerry lied about aspects of his time in Vietnam, stepping forward to lop it off. Although the group's claims have been largely discredited, Kerry deserves some of the blame for reopening the wounds of one of the darkest periods in the US. He underestimated the effect of the veterans' campaign at first before lashing out at Bush, accusing him of using the Swift Boat Veterans to do his "dirty work". Exhibiting a debater's fixation to rebut every point, Kerry helped keep alive an unseemly row that otherwise might have wilted in the dog days of summer.

Now it's the Republicans' turn to dominate the national debate in what is a crucial period for Bush's chances at re-election. The aim is to motivate the Republican base to turn out to vote in large numbers and appeal to independent voters.


1. Independent voters are not frothing at the mouth conservatives. The "Republican base" can only be motivated at the expense of turning off normal people.

2. Most tellingly- any exploitation of 9/11 will be met with "My Pet Goat." Count on it folks.

Bush will be toast, because we will counter Bush's "Swift Boat" attack with something that will be like "9/11 Survivors for Truth."

And also, "Veterans of Bush's Recession for Truth."

And how can it be said that "Kerry overplayed his hand" when it was the Smear-Boaters who did all the conspiring, colluding and LYING???

:headbang:
rocknation

BECAUSE they were going after Kerry no matter what.

The convention is the attempt by the parties to "brand" the candidate in the eyes of the public.

Kerry branded himself- honestly - as a military hero, which he is.

He could have highlighted BCCI & Iran-Contra, and showcased his prosecutorial career, but chose not to do so because his "branding" challenged the Republicans=strong defense meme.

OK. SB liars were going to go after Kerry.

Likewise, Bush will brand himself, as "a wartime leader," which is debunked by "My Pet Goat."

And an "economic genius" which will be debunked by anyone who lost their job.

The fact is, the SB liars' tactic of going after Kerry's branding is exactly what Kerry and the 527's will do- hence Bush's aversion to them.

The ads will have to not insult voters who voted for Bush before, but that's not difficult.

i agree, but...

why are we surprised at this, why wasn't the campaign ready from jump street to respond, why did they get this far (how did we underestimate the hunger of the press for this crap?)

we know what the reality on the ground is in this age of bush. outrage and a sluggish response won't do if we weant to win the election.

and i gotta think, if kerry's folks couldn't see this one coming down the river, then it sorta punchs a metaphorical hole in what i truly believe is a kerry strength- the ability to keep his men safe, to act with grace under fire, and to have a plan when attacked.

i want this guy to win. he wants to win. all g-d's children want him to win. i hate the way politics is practiced today. but i'll scarficie my priggish views about it to win.

whalerider55

But I suspect that he did see this coming- or at least I hope so.

They did take, IMO too long to respond, but he eventually did.

Me, I'd have gone right to "My Pet Goat," but then, I guess, in retrospect, doing "My Pet Goat" after the Repug convention is far, far jucier.

That comment can only be the product of ignorance.

The Kerry campaign laid out the tarbaby for the GOP. Not just the Band of Brothers at the convention, but the 'let's run on the issues' challenge and the statement that they wouldn't be running ads in August.

The Republicans fell for it, trotted out their Swift Boat Liars.

Kerry took a hit--but it's August.

The refutations now have enough time to work, to be hammered at by Kerry--and us.

If you're in the Kerry campaign, and know that they're gearing up the Swift Boat Liars, what do you do?

Do you think you can prevent it? Nope.

And as we've seen, despite the refutations, despite the vets coming out to call them liars, despite getting caught in their own lies, they're still all over the SCLM.

Hit them just as hard? With this media? The same one that makes even us go "Where's John Edwards?" when he's campaigning his ass off?

No, the best thing is to have them launch it in August rather than October.

Which the Kerry campaign (adroitly, IMO) had them do.

Come October, John Kerry can say "This is the Bush campaign strategy. They call me French-looking. They say I had sex with an intern. They call John Edwards and me gay. They lie about my voting record. And they smear my service in Vietnam. Lies, lies, lies, lies, lies."
"BUT WHY SHOULD WE EXPECT ANYTHING ELSE?"

By October, John Kerry can sneer at this.

If it hit in October, it would be worse.

By October, it'll be a different campaign: Kerry will have come off as relaxed, warm and somewhat folksy (though still Kerry, and authentic) in the debates, Bush will- he will stumble in them, and this will be in the bag.

Mark my words.

and focused like a laser on the details of his foreign and domestic plans. We will never get any details from bush, people will see the difference!

i can say this as a pragmatic, and without a touch of irony.

sounds like they softened kerry up a little. and i'm sure they have a big surprise planned for october already.

whalerider55

who's really starting to get pissed about it all

Everyone knows about bin Laden already, and that's not likely to give anyone a big bounce here- especially since al Qaeda's been growing.

My October surprise prediction is something in Iraq that's not going to be pretty for us- think Tet offensive.

Wish it weren't the case, but this is a big possibility.

The "Swift boat liars" have shot their wad, and today, Kerry wins.

2 weeks or so after the Repug convention, the campaign to "de-brand" Resident Putsch is going full steam- and the Bush bounce disappears.

Who knows what who as what planned for October? This goes more than both ways, and in only 1 way does it hurt Kerry.

but...
(always)...

i wasn't thinking bin laden- we have the tape of bush saying he doens't care about bin laden...

we inititate a tet offensive, or one is un leashed against us?

i was acutally more thinking of bushco provoking an international incident- nkorea, iran...

whalerider55

What if Bush figures he's gotten all he's going to get by playing to his strenghts? Maybe he thinks he has 45% as the war president. Those people aren't going anywere.

So, he launches the new and improved Bush -- mentions as much about the war on terra at the RNC as Kerry did about his senate record and instead, makes a charge for some of our turf. Sure, it's likely to be largely rhetoric, gut he cold mine a few percentage points for sure if the headlines are "Bush pledges health insurance for every child by 2007" or "Bush seeks energy indpendence by 2010." You get the idea. It won't even matter whether or not his policies are workable, simply by rearranging the priorities of his rhetoric, he could cut into the weaker Kerry support. That's what I'm expecting.