Michael Crowley
Sunday August 31 2008
... How times have changed. During the first half of the Bush era, the Republican party brooked about as much dissent as the North Korean Communist party. But nothing breeds division like failure and the collapse of Bush Republicanism has a long list of party factions pointing the finger at one another.
Take social policy. The apex of Republican power earlier in this decade was made possible by the enthusiasm of Christian conservative voters reacting, in part, to the alleged moral decay of the Clinton presidency. But once-reliable white evangelical voters are growing more disaffected with the Republicans. They have not been rewarded, after all, with a federal ban on gay marriage or real progress towards outlawing abortion. Nor do they have much trust in McCain, who has never prioritised social issues in his career and has clashed with the religious right. Earlier this year, influential Christian leader Dr James Dobson vowed that: 'I cannot and I will not vote for John McCain.'
McCain's stunning choice of Alaska governor Sarah Palin, merely two years into her first term and reportedly a visitor to just one foreign country (Ireland) before 2007, was a step towards calming evangelicals: Palin might be unqualified for the job, but she has a solid record of social conservatism, particularly on abortion. (Senior party leaders, including Karl Rove, had to plead with McCain not to choose a pro-abortion rights running mate, such as Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman or former Pennsylvania senator Tom Ridge, lest open warfare result.) But a dangerous breach remains. Socially moderate Republicans are seeking to assert themselves. The GOP's Wall Street financial base has little interest in banning abortion or gay marriage and, indeed, sees those crusades as a path to electoral exile. Hence, evangelicals in St Paul will be subjected to a Tuesday night keynote speech by the former New York mayor and presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, who urges his party to be more accepting of abortion. Listen for the boos - their volume will hint at whether religious conservatives understand that to prevail in November McCain needs to appeal beyond the Republican party's shrinking base, or whether they will insist on self-destructive displays of radicalism.
Foreign policy? The realist wing of the GOP wants to beat back the influence of the neoconservatives such as William Kristol who led the 2002-2003 charge into Iraq. This battle has played out in editorial pages, at Washington think-tanks and reportedly among factions within McCain's advisory circle. So far, the neocons seem to be winning out, as McCain rattles his sabre at Iran and Russia and puts a heavy emphasis on democracy promotion. But McCain's tough talk does not come without a cost, as evidenced by the warm words for Obama from leading foreign policy moderates such as Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel. Some GOP leaders even fear that former Secretary of State Colin Powell, aghast at neocon foreign policy influence, might not endorse McCain - and could possibly even proclaim his support for Obama in a public relations disaster for the Republican nominee ...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/31/barackobama.johnmccain