CBS News: Obama/Biden got bounce from convention up by 8 (here are the demos)

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(CBS) Democratic nominee Barack Obama's lead over Republican John McCain has grown after the Democratic convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest CBS News poll.

This is the first CBS News poll to include the vice presidential candidates in the horserace question.



he eight-point lead for the Democratic ticket is up from Obama’s three-point lead before the convention. But there are still a significant number of voters who have yet to firmly make up their minds.

Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama's lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

The poll shows an increase in the number of Obama voters who are enthusiastic about him. Sixty-seven percent of Obama voters say they enthusiastically support him, which is up from 48 percent who said so before the convention. About a quarter of McCain’s backers are enthusiastic about him--unchanged from before the Democratic convention.

Sixty-three percent of registered voters say Obama understands their needs and problems, while just 41 percent say that about McCain. And after the Democratic convention, 58 percent of voters say Obama is "tough enough," which is up from 48 percent in early August.

Though Obama has seen his lead grow, there are still areas where he has room to improve. The latest CBS News poll shows no change in the percentage of registered voters who say Obama has prepared himself well enough for the job-- a sentiment in which McCain has held a large advantage. But fewer voters now say Obama is not prepared for the job of President than before the convention.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/01/opinion/polls/main4405106.shtml
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 875 adults nationwide, including 781 registered voters, interviewed by telephone August 29-31, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points; for registered voters the sampling error could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. 1 | 2

:bounce:

We really need the good poll #'s in the press.

GO OBAMA and BIDEN!!!




:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

We also know that they are using the same weighing for polls as the last election even though the age and race turnout expects to be changed significantly.

We also know that they are showing the polling to be virtually tied.


However if you look at the crosstab data then you find the following discrepancy




In other words they are showing the totals as being "tied" but the parts looked at seperately as being Obama plus 3%

That means that there is at minimum a 3% bias that is a result of their weight distribution.

More on the controversy that is raging among pollsters here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6841885

Heckuva job, McCainie!!! :rofl:

I wasn't expecting much with the enviroment the way it is in our country now, so this is good.

I just can't see people getting that excited about the Repubs convention

among indies and women..... I'm not surprised.