Be Advised: Hurricane Ike currently tracked to hit Miami at Cat 4-5 Strength

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/024614W_sm.gif

Early next week.

I'm not panicking about it, but paying attention. Lots of things could happen in the next few days.

I didn't even give a thought to Rush. :7

Think of the evacuation problems!

If it follows that track, even the west coast will see at least 90 mile an hour winds. That's 100+ miles west of landfall.

so you would probably only have tropical force winds. Me, on the other hand, would be in hurricane force after it makes landfall.

The smaller the eye, the less defined, and therefore, the less forceful the hurricane?

:shrug:

this one is compact and powerful. A tighter defined eye means the storm is well organized.

We'll know more on Sunday. I'm not feeling all that comfortable about it since it has not changed track much- except to move a tiny bit towards us- in the last day or so. Things could still change of course- but I think we're in for a pretty rough ride.

great!

Oh, wait. . . there's no such thing as global warming.

Part of me wants to be a bit cynical and point out that the price one pays for living anywhere along the Gulf Coast is the potential for hurricanes, but it still sucks (and that doesn't begin to describe it, I know) to actually have to go through one.

Another minor point: when Gustav made landfall as a cat 2, it was almost treated as if it wasn't all that bad. The truth is, even a weak category 1 hurricane is quite powerful. I'm guessing there's no real good way to build hurricane-proof buildings in the same manner earthquake proof (or maybe earthquake resistant is a better term) buildings are built or retrofitted in California?

mostly CBS, and roofing specs to code, etc, and unlike the gulf coast region, not that many frame and stucco/sided homes anymore. I've been through all of the ones in the last few years, and for me, the worst part of it to me is the anxiety of riding it out. Not everyone here evacuates. It's only mandatory on the barrier islands if I remember right. Shutters are a must though.

make a difference?

Back in the spring a violent thunderstorm that included at least one tornado struck in the Kansas City area and did a lot of damage. What was very interesting in seeing pictures and video footage the next day was how readily you could tell the difference between tornado damage and straight-line wind damage. It was also obvious that a lot of the buildings damaged by the straight-line winds were poorly constructed. I know very little about building codes, and even though Kansas obviously isn't in much danger from hurricanes, violent thunderstorms are very common, as are tornadoes. It's almost impossible to build something that will withstand a tornado, but being able to withstand powerful winds up to some point strikes me as a good idea.

Personally I'm not sure I'd want to stay and ride out even a category 1 hurricane myself, but since I don't live on a coast I can't be certain what I'd do.

but yes, they do make a huge difference. We don't get a lot of tornados but when we do they are very small and disapate quickly. Most of ours form from water spouts. We've had one tornado(other than during a hurricane)in my area since I have lived here,(15 years) and it broke some windows, and did some facade damage, but nothing serious. I've been through, Katrina(yes, it crossed Fl. first, but was minimal)Frances,(105 mpg) Jeanne(120 mph), and Wilma(112 mph) in the recent past.(I'm probably forgetting one or two as well) My house, which is CBS, with a shingle roof, sustained no damage, other than the fence falling over, which I replaced after that.

But the bottom line is, the building codes do matter. But they woudn't matter much in a strong tornado.

Everyone east of US1 on the mainland will also have to evacuate, although it does vary a little in certain areas. I am about 5 miles from the coast near Boynton Beach (central Palm Beach county for non South Florida residents), and while I will not have a mandatory evacuation even in a Cat 5, power could be out for weeks and I do not know if I want to deal with that.

It's now a very dangerous looking track, dumping a crapload of rain on an already drenched south Florida and moving up into the Panhandle to kick ass and take names.

Ivan kicked the shit out of them a few years ago, and Ike looks even worse.

When is it supposed to hit?

But of course we will not have a clear picture of when or where it will hit until it gets a bit closer. They have more confidence in the 3 day track than they do the 5 day track. Saturday night will be the first real indication of the chance South Florida will be hit.