OK..... here's where we're at

In the tracking polls, look for it to be within 1 or 2 pts tomorrow, and for Obama to be behind by 2 or 3 on Saturday.


Don't panic. That will be the high point for the McCain campaign.


McCain is still running against a strong headwind... Obama will regain the lead within a week, and the "Palin Buzz" will wear off by the end of the month.


The only game-changers left are the debates.... and the expectations for Obama will be low.


We'll win in November.... 50% to 47%. By 80+ in Electoral Votes.



Keep the faith.

Will give them a bounce?

I really, really don't think so.

I guess Obama will still be ahead by 2 or 3. Right now he is ahead by 8 in some polls.

About 2 to 3 percent will switch, meaning a a 4 to 6 percent bounce for McCain, but not enough to completely come back, which will make everyone in the MSM come back to their senses and agree that this RNC convention was very very bad. That will happen next week.

Then we're going to be in a weird phase of the campaign, with much negativism in the ads, reactions to things happening in the news, and then we will have the debates and the Obama/Biden will wipe the floor with McCain/Palin. Each party will claim victory, Fox News's Web poll will give McCain/Palin the edge, MSNBC's will give it to Obama/Biden.

I agree that the newness will wear off fast for Palin. People will open their eyes and realize she's a hack. The insistant "rumors" will eventually become established and checked facts. Do not bet on a scandal, though, like her husband's supposed lack of faithfulness.

I still think it's a win/win situation for her, because if she and McCain lose (which I would put money on), she'll come back later, more experienced, and with a real resumé, and maybe who knows, she could have learned that all that negativity bites you in the end and could help rebuild the Republican party with the new generation (and I always predicted that Jeff Flakes, my rep in Congress could be part of it) and run in 2012 or 2016.

That's how I see it.

8 years of Bush, it's distinctly possible that Obama's presidency will be a disaster, with external crises overwhelming anything positive he tries to do. That would open the door in 2012.

...but that's because he had a big day on Monday, which comes off tomorrow, and will be replaced by today's post-Palin results. That will be enough, IMHO, to drop his lead down to within the margin of error. Although I found McCain's speech a snoozer, it's pretty standard for any presidential acceptance speech to give its giver a bounce (remember, even Mondale's 1984 acceptance speech was enough to give him a lead over Reagan for one week), so Saturday should feature a tie or narrow McCain lead. Weekends are normally not good for Obama, so I wouldn't expect his numbers to improve (in fact, they will probably go down) until next Monday's polling, which will be released next Tuesday.

One thing's for sure, IMHO: if McCain doesn't see a bounce like that over the next three to four days, and if Monday finds us with Obama having held on to his lead every day from now to then, the Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.

just because I will need someone to abuse if Obama/Biden loses in Nov! ;)

:toast:

:hi:

www.freerepublic.com

don't be too disappointed when you are wrong in your prediction

because Obama will have raised $$$$$ tonight and tomorrow. The money will overshadow the points.

If you haven't donated, even $5.00 go for it!!

Let's make them cower and do stupid things! They react exactly how we expect them to react and that's with a knee jerk reaction!!

I think your analysis of where the tracking polls will be over the next week is dead-on.

If things proceed as expected, your November call may well be right, too, but there are too many variables right now to bank on that.

My only worry is that, at the moment, the expectations for Obama in the debates are not low. In my opinion, they are unreasonably high. People are expecting Obama to "wipe the floor" with McCain, forgetting that Obama, although a capable debater, was regularly beaten by Hillary in debates during the primary season.

IMHO, for us to win in November, Obama has to "up his game" in the debate realm, learn some quick one-line solutions and how to deliver them snapily, and avoid the pausing in the middle of sentences and "um...um" moments where he is clearly thinking on his feet, but which make him sound uncertain compared to someone who can toss out quick sound bites effortlessly. If he can eliminate those traits, he'll do well in the debates. My guess is that he needs to "prove himself" in that venue (and it would be even better if he gets in a memorable zinger or two, like Reagan's "there you go again"), for many undecideds to come off the fence in his direction. If he can do that, the election may well be a laugher.

from in the debates.

I, for one, can't wait! :bounce:

I am keeping the faith, not to worry. :D

For the life of me I can't understand what they're waiting for, but whatever.

I just hope we get some state-by-state polls that don't have so many damn undecideds pretty soon. That will give us a better idea of where things really stand.

Dems and Dem-leaning Indys.

I don't think McCain will take the lead this weekend.


Oh...and I think there is PIZZA en route for someone on this thread...