McCain will most likely get a bigger bounce than Obama.

The Republican Convention was more successful than I thought it would be. The first two days were horrible, but the final two really helped McCain. It appears Palin's speech really helped her out, much like Michelle's did in Day One. I think because of this alone, McCain will over take Obama in both Rasmussen & Gallup within the coming days. Add in McCain's acceptance speech and he could be up by 5-7 points or so by this time next week. He'll also be helped by the fact nothing will cut into his post-convention coverage. Whether we like it or not, Palin's choice was perfectly done by McCain, because it blunted Obama's acceptance speech and gave McCain an extra three days of coverage leading up to his convention.

This is going to get a bit ugly, but don't give up. It's possible Obama falls behind by his biggest margin yet in this election, but the bounce should only be temporary.

The Republicans had a better convention than we did. They energized/united their party AND beat the crap out of our nominee.

We really treated McCain too respectfully.

:eyes:

Specifics please.

while completely snuffing out any momentum from our convention.

Republicans are just better at this stuff than we are. They're better at campaigning, we're better at governing.

Slamming Obama? Creating a hatred filled convention??

That's not accomplishment, it's smoke and mirrors. I really hate it when people focus on the negative, rather than the positive. If you don't see any positive in Obama, then perhaps you need to take a break from the internet for a while.

If you want to win, you run a negative campaign.

Sorry that you do. I really would like to see something come out of your post showing why you support Obama. How about it? I haven't seen anything but snide remarks from you, so maybe I missed them....

I was really attracted to him because I thought he was a silent assassin, and that he viewed the divisiveness from a practical point of view instead of from a resolutely moral point of view.

I have to say I'm disappointed that he really, really believes in this unity crap.

hope.

Same crap from you.

Repeating it ad nauseum doesn't make it so.

Go away.

It was widely believed that Carter would demolish Reagan in their debate. Heck, even the Benston-Quayle debate didn't save Dukakis. I know it would be logical to assume that Obama will wipe the floor with McCain in their debates, but don't count on it. The MSM will probably spin it as a McCain victory no matter what happens.

If this is the case, the numbers will level out on their own.

How many prognosticators do we need here?

However, that means in the more recent numbers we are tied or lagging. I know we discount the Rasmussen poll, but the CBS poll had similar numbers.

This Rasmussen and "McPOW's going to be ahead" meme have been posted already today.

It's the restating of the obvious that's tiring.

As you can see, this place is really getting redundant and depressing. Help! I can't stand it any more :crying:

BUt, I don't see him getting very far above Obama. Obama has held steady at 49-50, nothing negative has caused Obama's numbers to decrease. Mcpow may move up, but I doubt he will get above 47 or 48 %. And it will be short lived.

Remember, Obama built a 9-point lead at his highest point of the convention. That's after the race was tied when the DNC started. If McCain swings it around and takes a 2 or 3 point lead, that's a bigger bounce than Obama received.

As they hide from the media, and the media focuses on them more, they will drop quicker and farther than they rose.

I expect him to seize the lead by Saturday or Sunday, but by the middle of the week, Obama will probably go back up.

If you look at conventions past, the party generally gains a few points in the polls, which then dissipate in the next couple of weeks. Then the other party has their convention, and the same thing happens in the other direction.

This year is unusual in that there isn't a two-three week period between conventions for the first bounce to fade. Therefore, it's going to look like a steeper shift from one convention to another, but it's only the natural fade of the first convention bounce overlapping the beginning of the second one. In the end, the second convention bounce will likewise fade, and we'll be back to where we were before.

If the Democrats had run their convention before the Olympics, most likely Obama's bounce would have come and gone long before the Republican convention began, and we would have been back to a two-point or so Obama lead by last weekend. The rest of the results would have played out as they did up to now...but everyone would have seen it as the Republicans starting to get a small bump from their convention from that baseline, not from the days immediately after the several-weeks-ago Democratic convention.

Sorry, but the notion that, because the two conventions are so close together, the G.O.P. bounce has to be measured from the high point of the Democratic polling results to the high point of the Republican polling results is nonsense...and, as we can see, nonsense that tends to bring every Chicken Little out of the woodwork. For anyone who really takes this line of reasoning seriously, might I suggest a reading of the analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com as a reality check?

I don't think the bounce will exceed the 5-7 points Obama received. We'll start seeing the results in an hour or so.

That doesn't include the numbers post-acceptance speech.

Of course, Obama didn't receive a huge bounce in the Rasmussen and Gallup will give us more of an idea here. Obama was up 7 in yesterday's poll, if he's only up 5 or less, it means McCain is seeing a fairly big bounce.

I don't think the turns that into a lead. I suspect they will be tied, which means half the country is nuts.

Anyway this election will be more about turnout than anything else.

...and represents a misunderstanding of tracking poll methodology.

It is well-known that Obama had a very good polling day Monday (up double-digits in Gallup, don't know about Rasmussen, but it was pretty high as well) with somewhat less-strong leads Tuesday and Wednesday. Today, those strong numbers from Monday dropped out of the calculations, replaced by those from yesterday. Even if yesterday's numbers had given Obama the same lead as Tuesday and Wednesday, his tracking poll numbers would have dropped by several percentage points just because of the loss of the Monday numbers. And that's leaving aside the fact that you'd expect last-day-of-convention numbers to show a bounce for the party in question, even without factoring in the fact that the story of the day was "Palin 'hits it out of the park'!!!" and the non-stop Obama-bash of the night before.

Now, I don't follow Rasmussen all that much, but I do follow Gallup. And I'll tell you that I expected, as a best-case scenario for us, that Obama would be up in the GDTP by two or three points, and wouldn't have been surprised to see a tie race. Instead, Obama had a four-point lead, beating even my most optimistic projections. So, while Palin-mania seems to have given the Republicans a bit of a bounce, it is far from "fairly big" -- as a matter of fact, considering the circumstances, I'd say it was pretty unimpressive. If McCain can't pull considerably better numbers in the next day or two, his campaign is in big trouble.

Had this convention ended Tuesday, it would have been a failure. However, Wednesday and Thursday really were well received and should help McCain. I know people don't want to hear this, but I would be surprised if McCain does not at least tie this thing by tomorrow in both Gallup and Rasmussen.

True.

But it's your style to be abrasive.

In fact, I said in the end it probably wouldn't amount to anything.

There will be a bump and it will probably be larger than Obama, but two weeks from now, I doubt he'll still be up.

Thanks for reinforcing that view with another thread.

Not like I'm the first to rehash over something and I know won't be the last.

I'm looking for something positive going forward. I'm starting to want to really cut-out Republicans permanently from my life.

convention I watched both and I just don't see it....must just be me

...or even slightly in the lead. (If not, the Republicans better head for cover.) But a convention bounce that doesn't put him up at least five points by Monday isn't going to last and, when polling numbers settle down in a week or two, will leave us safely in the lead.

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The big story in most major media markets is the start of the NFL season. So the bump may not be as big as you think.

I think Palin energized our side even more than the GOP FamVal base.

Hillary Clinton is no longer the most polarizing figure in American politics.

So noun-verb-POW may have moved them if they haven't been following the news and heard it 800 times already.

But a lot of the convention was ugly right wing smearing of liberals. Tired old punchlines about them damned liberals. Ready for the laugh track.

But I'm hoping those tired old smears induced flashbacks in the audience. Same stuff these nasty people told us last time. They've been in charge since then and really fucked things up. So this time let's just laugh on cue as direct and vote for someone else because we can tell the nation needs real change.

Grandpa and Perky McBubbles aren't suggesting anything new. Still too oil focused. Things are also conservative enough already. We don't want the gestapo.

Donate , Register your friends and family and make sure YOU and THEM show up on NOV 4 and elect obama / biden.

Yes we can and we will.

But I don't see how his speech last night is going to swing anybody at all. Unless some people felt sorry for how all over the place and tired he looked and give him sympathy support, that speech did nothing for him.

There are no fundies that are undecided.

If he had chosen Lieberman, a lot of those people would simply not vote.

I think you need to rethink your stereotype of religious fundamentalist. They don't vote Republican just to vote Republican. Many of them want to feel like they are supporting a true Christian and there were some that did not have that view of McCain by himself. There are people in my wife's family that are a perfect example.

When you submit yourselves to thinking along such stereotypical lines... you are acting like the very thing that you are probably against.

I assume you realize that the leadership of the Fundy movement is firmly entrenched in the Republican party. This is no secret.

They may "pretend" to have doubts or act like they are considering other options, but the best we can hope for is for them to be less motivated and not vote. They are "Republican or nothing" voters - they will never, ever vote Dem.

There isn't anything I don't know about that crazy movement.

Yes, they are predominantly Republican. But many of them still were on the fence regarding McCain... and if Romney had been the nominee, it would have been even worse. I can guarantee you there are many of them that would never vote for a Mormon under ANY cirumstances. They would have pulled the lever for Obama first (given that they were aware that Obama isn't a Muslim)

Hence, there are fundies that could be in a state of being undecided.

On a side note, my grandmother is very evangelical and is also voting for Obama. She doesn't want anymore war.

Not everything is as you assume.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but it's yet to happen - we'll see.

true....but real thinking people know the rnc writers wrote it for her and anything of any substance did not come from her....so I don't think many of any of those groups were swayed to the repuke side!!!

First off, many are calling the RNC a total flat and floundering uninspiring blunder full of gimmicktry. The talking heads on PBS totally slammed McCain and the effect the RNC may have on the outcome last night and I know a few other MSM political pundits did as well. To assert, with no facts, that McCain will be up by 5-7 points is only propigating others to read this and repeat the same bullshit to others which then becomes a self-fufilling prophacy. Now stop the negative "Debbie Downer" bullshit and post something to rally the troops and keep the confidence that there is no better choice than Obama/Biden.

It does nobody any good to post spineless threads like this. If you're that "afraid" .... get off your ass and get out the vote!

fear threads they did it in 2000, 2004, 2006 and they are going to do it when we are sitting in the WhiteHouse

If you don't like it, hide thread.

Glad you weren't in a jungle LZ with me.

but I'm thinking it's basically going to be tied.

And up 3-5 points in Ohio and Florida.

Bouncey ball bouncey ball bouncey shiney bouncey ball: 671 point bouncey!!! Belee dat!!!

The difference is night and day. Have some confidence in the ticket.

No worries. The Media Heathers won't put up with being shut out of the process. They will vet her ass one way or another.

and has stolen Obama's CHANGE concept. The bounce will be negligible.

I watched the RNC. It was not that successful. The speakers were just attacks and biography, but nothing about what they will do. The media should crucify them. For example, McCain's speech does not contain a single mention of the middle class, the mortgage crisis, social security or the environment. NOTHING.

Yet, Big Media simply gives him and Palin a pass because Republican delegates clap loud. Indeed, the pundits are declaring these speeches success, and THIS is what affects the American people, the so called neutrals calling the race even, declaring that McCain is independent from Bush, and vouching for Palin based on a speech that she read.

So, I disagree on the RNC. The Republicans could have displayed a polished turd, and the media would have declared it a success. The real problem in the next 60 days is overcoming Republican control of Big Media by registering voters, and through grass roots support, as well as informing people of McCain/Palin's actual stance on the issues.

The over-reaction to the Palin announcement practically guaranteed large interest and sympathy.

That's what many posters don't seem to realize, the foundational factors are more significant than poll numbers. For example, Bush was the betting favorite throughout 2004 even when Kerry had the poll advantage. It's hardly a case of wild swings like a seesaw.

McCain will never lead by 5-7 but it's possible he draws virtually even or takes a minor lead. If so, it should naturally recoil to slight Obama advantage.

The terrain suggests a 2-3 point Democratic margin and that overwhelms short term obsessions.

... because his convention brought a bigger alteration to his ticket, but Palin may be sufficiently hyper-partisan enough to limit the bounce... along w/ McCain's speech last night, which was a real buzz kill.

...and I've been warning that McCain will probably take the lead sometime this weekend, but the results I'm seeing so far suggest that the G.O.P. bounce might not be all that impressive.

Yesterday would have been the day for a big G.O.P. bounce, because an extremely-favorable set of Obama polling numbers from Monday was dropping out of the average, to be replaced by the polling from yesterday (the high point of the Palin-mania feeding frenzy). I expected that daily results would be around +6 for McCain. Instead, depending on which expert you read, it appears that the numbers from yesterday were anywhere from a tie to a few-point lead for Obama (I even see a possibility that Obama's numbers may have gone up in Gallup from the day before). This, under about the most favorable conditions possible for the Republicans, where they had a virtual media monopoly to sell their side of the story, and were at the height of the "Star Is Born" excitement for Sarahbou. The G.O.P. will never have this favorable an opportunity again in the entire race.

Now, tomorrow's poll will factor in McCain's speech. And, honestly, I'm not sure what effect that will have. McCain certainly played the "POW card" thoroughly, and it's pretty usual for an acceptance speech -- any acceptance speech -- to give the nominee an additional few points for a finite number of days. On the other hand, I've heard a lot of people conclude that McCain's speech was pretty unimpressive, and a let-down after Palin's all-stops-out lie-o-thon. Might that cause the numbers being gathered today to be subdued compared to yesterday? Who knows?

I still stand by my belief that next Monday will find McCain leading in the tracking polls, although probably by a considerably smaller margin than the 5-7 points I first anticipated. However, that is merely due to the "convention bounce," which will fade over time. I would think that, a week or two from now, the race will have reverted to where it was before both conventions -- i.e. with Obama enjoying a small but consistent lead.

For those who might turn Chicken Little the moment upcoming polls put McCain ahead (and, from the looks of things here and on MyDD.com, there seem to be a lot of them in the Democratic blogosphere), I would remind you of 1984, when the Democratic convention and Mondale's acceptance speech actually gave him the lead over Reagan in the polls...for one week. At the end of that week (with nothing having happened to change the dynamic of the race), Reagan was back on top by a solid margin, and wound up taking 49 out of 50 states that November. Convention bounces may be interesting for the dedicated poll follower, but really don't have a lot of significance in the eventual race about 99% of the time.

Gallup used to have every presidential race since, I believe 1948, in graphs... Then they changed the URLs and I could never find it again...

I don't remember Mondale leading at any time...It did get close after Reagan's disastrous first debate performance...

I'd love to see the link...

I agree with Awsi Dooger that we need to look at the underlying fundamentals of the race but we have an unusual array of candidates...

I think tomorrow will be telling. If no big spike up, then it's all downhill fro McCain/Palin. The honeymoon is over and the effect of the scandals will take over.

...whose main effect (despite the OP's best intentions) has been to bring all the Chicken Littles out of the woodwork (and start them fighting with each other).

:eyes:

generally opinions of conventions have peaks. Right after it's over, people think it was a great convention...after a few days, those opinions tend to drop unless a great idea or proposal really grabs the memories of people.

Several media analysts (not reporters or partisans...people who analyze this sort of stuff based on theories and scientific method and have some idea of how ideas and themes play in people's minds based on research and observation) have said that once the shiny newness wears off, this might be regarded as the worst convention in recent history.

There was nothing to grab people...slime doesn't have longevity. Next week (and the week after and so on), we'll be talking about the new scandal whatever it is instead of the conventions. McCain has to stay on the attack effectively and stay clean in order to win. It's always easier to defend the high-ground if you've had it for a while...even if we lose it, there is always downward rebound for the overtaker.

I knew the post Demcon bounce would'nt last, we got 60 days to bounce back!

not unlike that of a dead kitty cat.