Gallup: Obama 48 (-1), McCain 44 (+2)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

His bounce begins, however, it's interesting to note Obama only lost one point. Which means maybe his bounce is coming from undecideds and not Obama supporters.

Meaningless nonsense.

Me like.

Gallup uses a tracking methodology where they keep a running total of several days' (3, I believe) results. Each day they poll a new sample, and drop off the old data. It will take a while to fully integrate the convention bounce.

But let's face it, McCain didn't exactly set the house on fire. In fact, he just FINALLY got it going at the end, and then they had to shut him down (perhaps a risk of heart failure at his advanced age!). I mean Jeffrey Toobin's "That was the worst acceptance speech since Carter <28 years ago>" might have been a little tough, but point taken.

Obama should come out of this week ahead and build momentum from there. I saw this again and again in primary season from the other (Clinton) side.

It's hard to run against a movement.

C'mon, man. Hang in there.

Gallup, but then gradually Obama will gain ground again.

Every NFL fan in the world came into that off an adrenaline high and promptly had to start popping no-doze just to stay awake.

That's not a bad thing. It's expected. Then Obama will regain his momentum.

and as for "statistically tied", that's a concept I don't believe in.

If you have two means, separated by some function of the standard deviation, it will *always* be more likely that the true mean of the larger value will be greater than the true mean represented by the smaller value. Assuming underlying normality of course.

chance of winning.

that I thought they would be today.

From Friday (day after Dem convention ended) to today (day after Republican Convention ended). I don't think he gets much more. Barack didn't. We'll see.

Maybe a point or two more at the most.

Come on, Palin/McCain, you can do it! PUSH!

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Nate at fivethirtyeight.com has good analysis of these polls.

Keep tracking polls in context though..as Axlerod wrote.

Now stop the fear mongering in other threads and grow a pair.

This is a fight we intend to win!

We're not out of the woods yet and I think people need to be a bit cautious here. McCain very well may flop, but Obama didn't go from tied to +9 in one day, he needed a launching point and then steadily eased into his lead. I will say this, tomorrow's numbers will be key. If McCain gets only a 1-2 bump, he's in trouble. If, however, this thing is tied tomorrow, it'll be a pretty sizable bump for him.

If we believe the poll reverse engineers, it was the day of the Palin selection.

I wouldn't get too optimistic over this one.

I was waiting for Gallup - not as bad as one might have thought, though it'll get worse before it get's better (as you've stated in your other thread).

Not fully, of course, but we'll have an idea of whether it's a big bounce, medium bounce or small bounce.

I was surprised to see Obama lost one point, though. I thought McCain would get within 5, but via Obama dropping 2 points and McCain rising 1.

Some people are swayed by the excitement of the moment, but I expect people to go back to their "home team" after it wears off. I think the better man will win in the end, this time we have both the more knowledgeable (we always have that) and more inspiring candidate. He is solid. The real difference will be who shows up - the new young voters or the "afraid of change" old curmudgeons. Please show up young people!

Come Wednesday next week, things will normalize. And the sheeple will probably have found something new and shiny to look at.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MAGIC NUMBER 270. KERRY GOT 252. WE NEED 17 MORE (269 GIVES US A TIE AND WE STILL WIN). I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH.