Today's Gallup Tracking (September 5): Not so bad... O-48% M-44%.

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:08 PM
Original message

Today's Gallup Tracking (September 5): Not so bad... O-48% M-44%.

Edited on Fri Sep-05-08 12:17 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter

No McCain speech reaction and only one day of Palin reaction in this three-day average. For comparison, remember that Obama jumped six points the first polling day after Hillary's convention speech. So bounce-wise, Palin is only worth 1/2 of Hillary so far and Hillary isn't even on the ticket.

Gallup Daily: Obama�s Lead Now at 4 Points
Obama�s position about halfway between his recent highs and lows

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110065/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Now-Points.aspx

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jefferson_dem

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:10 PM
Response to Original message

1. Barack's 50 reading from Tuesday fell off today.

And he only lost one point in total - to reach 48. I'll take it.

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geek tragedy

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message

2. Bounce usually takes 48 hours after the last night

to fully sink in.

So, the peak period will start on Saturday and run through Monday-Tuesday of next week.

If Obama is stil ahead come Tuesday of next week, the race is over.

As long as Obama is within 5 points next Tuesday, he's in pretty good shape.

McCain's people handled the VP rollout and convention beautifully--they erased our convention and now get to ride the momentum of their own convention.

Republicans have terrible ideas and have a terrible candidate, but they are much better than we are at running Presidential campaigns.

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apnu

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. Yeah, I'm waiting for Monday's polls

And bracing for a lot of DU panties in wads.

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Dawgs

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #2

7. Why do you keep posting that they handled the convention beautifully.

McCain was boring and Palin pissed off everyone but the base(people that were voting for McCain already). Are you hoping for a bounce - cause you seem to be?

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ClarkUSA

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. Because she's a passive-aggressive PUMA

That's why. She also loves posting no-name GOP polls showing huge bounces for McCain among independents.

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geek tragedy

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #7

11. I'm not an echo-chamber thinker.

In terms of merit, the Republicans are 100% wrong. Sarah Palin is 100% evil.

BUT, that doesn't mean that they don't know what they're doing.

Of course WE think their convention sucked--we're rabid partisans who hate what Republicans have to say in general.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Fri Sep-05-08 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #7

16. .

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the Sundance Kid

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Fri Sep-05-08 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

21. or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about

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WeDidIt

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:11 PM
Original message

BEHOLD! The Power of the Palin!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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tridim

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message

3. But the BS CBS poll has them tied

and that's apparently the only poll the media believes is newsworthy.

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regnaD kciN

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Fri Sep-05-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #3

20. A "tie" that was achieved...

...simply by changing the voter distribution to include 5% more Republicans. :eyes:

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kwolf68

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:12 PM
Response to Original message

4. What worries me is that

ANYONE could change their mind based on a political speech alone (to include Obama's, brilliant as it was).

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #4

12. And that segment decides all contested elections.

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mbeutler1203

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:12 PM
Response to Original message

5. That should start to drop...

and begin to level off in the next 3-4 days. McCain +1 by next Wednesday and I predict Obama to be back up by 1% or so by the end of next week.

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carpe diem

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:16 PM
Response to Original message

8. i think it's likely that McCain's speech muted

whatever bounce he got from Palin's...he probably did to himself what he did to Obama when he announced Palin as his running mate...

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tpi10d

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message

10. when it settles

I still suspect we'll get a permanent pickup of 1-2% out of our convention due to increased party unity. R's tend to have relatively high party unity anyway at the ballot box, can't think of any game changer which occurred at their convention. But as always time will tell.

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JoshDem

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:37 PM
Response to Original message

13. Not bad but expect we will be down by Sunday

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rufus dog

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Fri Sep-05-08 12:51 PM
Response to Original message

14. THIS IS WRONG - CBS HAS IT TIED - DAMN YOU K&H

Oh yeah and don't forget the Friday/Monday polls always seem to be down for Obama by a point or two then pop up mid week.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Fri Sep-05-08 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #14

15. Sorry. I must have missed the latest brain-radio broadcast.

The Ministry of Truth is slacking off.

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Motown_Johnny

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Fri Sep-05-08 05:16 PM
Response to Original message

17. there was bound to be some fluctuation after the convention. Give it time for people to learn to

hate her.

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msallied

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Fri Sep-05-08 05:16 PM
Response to Original message

18. McCain fizzled Palin's sizzle. And the poll numbers will reflect that soon.

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regnaD kciN

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Fri Sep-05-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message

19. This is actually quite good...

...and a lot better than I expected. What with Obama's great polling Monday falling out of the average, and yesterday's results being taken when Palin-mania was at its height, I thought Obama would be lucky to come out with a two or three point lead, and might even be tied. Instead, he's still up four. That's a very favorable sign that the G.O.P. convention bounce won't be as big as most were expecting.

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